What I've learned so far (and continue to learn) before going live

Ah yes, this is one weakness I’ll probably struggle with for a few more months.

I tried not using a TP this past week aaand that didn’t go well for me. I’ll have to update my trading journal to talk about this one lol.

I’m excited for you and will be subscribing to this thread for constant updates! Good luck to all of us!

Oh and thanks for putting this together. Really helpful!

You just described me. I’ve gotten better though in the last week or so but mostly because my schedule has been turned upside down by personal events. This week is a more “normal” one for me so we’ll see if I truly have gotten the hang of it.

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@Diabolo888,

This is an interesting approach. Could you give an example or post a chart showing your approach and at what point would you place a hedge?

TX,

I am rethinking my stop loss approach or lack there of due to my long term approach if I just get out earlier it might be a good/profitable move - perhaps classified as the cost of doing business.

frandlost,
KC

@purtle,

even if I had time during the day like before, I would do more harm than good. It would be like opening the oven door every 2 minutes to see if the cake is done! :rofl: !

“Leave it alone and let it bake!” That’s my approach these days!

KC

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haha - that made me laugh. I can imagine this being applied to trading “oh, i’ll just buy here and sell there”

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@BaconSandwich , I’ve been following your Journal. It’s an education! Thanks!

I know that everything I’ve studied, learned, improved and honed will be put to the test or tossed out the window once I go live.

The key for me is risk management/capital preservation. Even as I type my drawdown is not desirable but I have been improving my s/d identification and pyramiding in and taking money off the table when PA indicates.

For me I have to be very deliberate in my analysis and not shoot from the hip.

Frandlost a little less,
KC

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I am still refining the technique but basically you set the hedge instead of a stop loss and then trade out of the loss. The disadvantage is the tying up of margin, time and you do need patience.

I have hectares of patience! Currently I’m trading microlots so my margin is fairly small - unless of course I go with a US broker then it could be a limiting factor due to account size.

Perhaps either matching the trade or a percent of the initial trade to offset the first trade going against me, then confirm turn, close the hedge and pyramid back up. It would be interesing to see if I could actually do this or cut losses with SL.

Mmmm.

Thanks for the input. Something I have to consider.

KC

After re-reading the member spotlight on @BaconSandwich I have been reconsidering the use of stop losses on a long term TF account.

I currently have more drawdown than I would prefer and some of those trades had been in the money at some point. I have to do a more detailed analysis. It will be interesting to see how many went straight against me and kept going bad, how many went slightly positive and then tanked.

Fewer losses increase the impact of every win.

What I did notice on a quick look is that even on profitable trades that were held for a a long time there was a higher profit point achieved early on. This reinforces my belief that TPs should become SOP and the question is the how to implement them.

I am considering putting them just under the next major supply zone for all of them. Or, perhaps spread them out under the 1H, 4H, D supply zones. Mmmmm.

Further consideration is required because it’s nice when the “magic” happens!!

KC

Interesting thoughts. You mention that even for trades held for a long period the high profit point came early on. The opposite seems to be true for losses which seem to go wrong and then carry on remorselessly.

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Here is something from @Clint that I picked up in his member spotlight… I wanted to post it here so it’s handy for me.

I remember running all sorts of wild compounding scenarios that would make me a millionaire in 10 months, 10 weeks, 10 trades, I did compounding spreadsheets every which way till Sunday before learning what I’ve learned.

But Clint mentions/outlines a realistic compounding scenario below

Clint:

"… COMPOUNDING modest, but consistent, daily profits — and, then, letting those profits grow exponentially to build wealth.

There are three elements here:
modest profits — don’t take huge risks swinging for the fences;

consistent profits — this means accurately following a trading method which has a high win-ratio; and
compound profits — let your profits accumulate in your account; and, as your account grows, increase the size of your trades in proportion to the size of your account.
If you can consistently AVERAGE a net profit of just 20 pips each day, you can earn an average 1% increase in the value of your account each day, while trading with no more than 5:1 actual leverage, and limiting your risk to less than 2% on each trade.
A steady 1% increase per day
= a little more than 5% per week (compounded over 5 trading days per week)

= a little more than 24% per month (22 trading days per month)

= almost 1,000% per year (240 trading days per year, allowing for vacations and holidays).
Where else can you legally make 1,000% per year on your initial capital, without taking extraordinary risks?"

<Frandlost,

KC

Yes.

This says to me that It would be worth looking for a specific target and place a TP. Improve my ability to recognize substantial supply zones.

It also is telling me I need a better approach on handling draw down. This could be sloved with better entry analysis or perhaps using a single trade to see how it begins to play out and put on positions accordingly.

KC

Still feeling the effects of my first usd/mxn grid trades. While my balance and equity are increasing my drawdown is still more than I would prefer.
I have been taking money off the table.
Seen improvements in my ability to identify and trade s/d zones.
I still need to codify a set of specific rules.

Currently I’ll enter on a pull back close to a s/d zone. I have had a some success counter trend trading for short pips using pending order and setting TPs based on the ATR.

I still am undecided on the SL situation. I keep flipping between closing quickly or just riding it out into profitability understanding that may not happen. Mmmm.

What I have to do is an analysis of the initial negative move in my winning positions before they move a considerable distance from entry into profitability and compare these to the trades that have created the long term drawdown. How are the entrys different, if at all, and what might be the “signal” for me to get out quickly.

I have more work to do in getting to the next step.

a little less frandlost,
KC

Trying to keep this demo account as realistic as possible. 4H, D, W charts. Will hold over night, over weekend,… and currently, month to month. Month to month has been a requisite as small sizes, too many positions, no stop loss coupled with poor entry had initial positions deep into the red.

Starting balance was 1000 USD. Kept positions small. Made mistakes and adjusted as needed. I have kept revenge trading at bay. Have done pretty well scaling in and scaling out. Didn’t lose my head when there were some significant price swings.

While long term patience can be frustrating/grating at times, it has paid off with risk management.

The goal is to get rid of my early mistakes, improve my consistency of winning trades, identifying better entries which should reduce my losses or time in negative territory and establish TP goals.

As mentioned earlier, a quick look at loosing trades coming back into profitability were actually more profitable early on. This should encourage a TP protocol. Take money off the table and re-enter on a pull-back.

No matter how diligent the effort of “playing” this demo acct realistically… I’m sure it will be nothing compared to the real deal.

Patience.

KC

USD/MXN continues to move higher. Closing profitable positions as they develop. Drawdown is shrinking. Closing in on next balance peg point by focusing on better entries and not simply sitting on trades from profit through substantial pullback and sometimes into negative territory.

Would like to wipe out all draw down and do an analysis of worst/best trades.

As a US resident I’ve been considering which broker to use to open a 1K usd account. For my long term trading style It’s down to…

Turnkey which is where my demo account is. ECN, 200:1, deposits/withdrawl are wire transfer only.

Oanda US, MM, 50:1, deposits/withdrawl, Debit Card - very simple.

KC

Draw down continues to shrink.

Within striking distance of demo goal. Upon reaching that, as mentioned earlier, I’ll review some of the best worst trades, perhaps refine process and then demo again with Oanda.

As a long term US trader I believe I am going to open my initial 1K account with Oanda. They have MT4 which I am used to. While they are a MM and Turnkey is “ECN” I believe that the the size of my trades and length of holding positions any spread difference, execution speed and any of the MM “stop hunting”, if in fact true, would have minimum impact.

This should also make the funding and withdrawl - if any :laughing: - much easier than an off shore account.

KC

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Nice work. Cool to see you making progress. Following.

Remind me when you check your charts. Evening and then again in the morning? Is this before US open and at US close? How about during the day, since you have your 9-5 job? Thanks!

@dudebro ,

I’m EST and check charts in the morning around 6-630, If I am home at luch perhaps then and usually between 5-6 in the evening.

I tend to set pending limit orders (behind price). I have to do a better job at setting TPs. I’ve ridden the roller coaster too many times! :laughing:

As mentioned above, Once I hit my goal I’ll do an analysis of best worst trades to help refine my trading.

KC

While I have seen some success in demo I still feel that my chart reading still needs to be improved substantially.

I came across this Pete Faders Vid and in the middle he gives a great description of PA and Vol. at 9.42 that really clicked with me .

This is a vid I will now review from time to time.

KC

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Within a stones throw of demo goal. edit: perhaps a couple of stones! :laughing:

Waiting on Targets to hit…

GBP/CHF - 1.32140 range
EUR/USD - 1.12800 range
USD/MXN - 19.49800 range

Aiming to exceed goal and close all open trades for a net gain at or above goal.