What sent gold down at 3 o clock today?(march 14th)

high i was just looking over gold today and noticed it took a massive dive at about 3 o clock, i had a check and couldnt find anything on an economic calender that matched up the same time.what am i missing about that event?

Hmm… same time as a fall in US bond prices, attributed to a rumour that The Russian Govt were moving out of US Treasuries ahead of possible sanctions … then again it was only a rumour.

Both are trying to undo those moves since, so we may never know.

Strong rally into a fresh supply zone.

D1


M15


The move now undone - that’s the thing about rumours and the cliché - sell the rumour etc etc.

If you don’t prefer supply/demand or price action - maybe some of these contributed:


Lack of buying momentum via RSI - that final push before the resistance point looks parabolic.
Oversbought Stoch

I don’t use technical indicators like this, but, had 5 minutes of free time on my hand and felt like taking a stab at it.

Looking to ‘techs’ a normal supply/ demand imbalance. Price retraced to support then bounced. Simples! :smiley:

yea, i wasnt paying attention to the graphs, first i was all charts no fundementals, now im all fundementals no charts and missed this with a quick look, but interesting to hear about a rumor over russia getting rid of government bonds. if things in ukraine get worse, or sanctions are put in place, this should effect gold in a bullish way yes?

I’d say probably a little risk off is on the cards. I suppose the key is what that means and maybe the timing.

After Draghi many shorts got squeezed, some were suggesting that the market is/was testing the ECB’s resolve in forcing a lower euro, I’d say it was just an old fashioned squeeze, took out the shorts who jumped in early (including my good self btw).

I def will not test Draghi’s resolve, I’ll just go with the flow.

Btw - risk off Gold up?

Fire-sale of US Treasuries is a warning of acute stress across the world – Telegraph Blogs

May you please elaborate a bit more on that?

What do you use to measure risk on/off - I understand that’s a bit of a loaded question.
The S&P rallied during the hour which the OP was questioning FYI:


We all know the S&P has been on a monster tear propped by the FED.
I’m not saying you personally measure risk via the S&P (as I’d be guessing), I just know that’s pretty common and wanted to share.

The USD performance tells the story and the S&P500 VIX has been very low indicating that investors have been feeling risky and it is only rising now.

My point is AUD is a risk currency it is rising in spectacular fashion. Note the pound has been unshaken for weeks to be rattled and is now approaching its 55 day MA.

Oil prices have fallen from its spike indicating some normality in commodities.

Also we can see that money flow is not into other commodities as overall prices are ticking lower suggesting that there is a medium risk appetite.

This translates more USD strength.
Less Gold strength signaling long term optimism. More stock market activity but we should see some movement in emerging markets and soon commodities will start moving.

In my opinion the big boys are ready to play.

All that analysis is great and all - but I politely disagree.
My analysis of the greenback is based purely on the charts, and what I’m seeing indicates further weakness for the dollar, and a legitimate test of strength ahead.


W1


D1

The price action for the FXCM USDollar Index is not signalling any near-term strength to me what-so-ever.
The 10,400 level was key Oct 2013, but, the run up since then has been lackluster, and incredibly weak.

Where are you seeing strength with 5 consecutive lower highs put in?
Coupled with the weak angular gains of the most recent bull wave, I’m not seeing any true buying demand for at least another 100-200 pts (10,300 - 10,400 zone).

May and Jun 2013 saw some strength in the USD against its major counterparts, but the most recent test of this level doesn’t represent half of the same previous buying interest.

There is a bearish breakout structure on the D1.


EDIT: Forgot to add quote @ top.

Hi,

As Peers mentioned Gold made a burst lower on the 14th,just to regain all the losses again. And now moved much further down once again. Surprisingly just before that explosive move a Z Pattern emerged which gave an optimal Entry;


These Patterns are fractals on the line chart that spark explosive moves and can come handy whith trader’s profound market anticipations.

Best
Z Pattern

Intraday H1 Chart
FXCM USDollar Index



Chart should be pretty self-explanatory.
There has been a relatively strong run-up ahead of the major piece of event risk due out tomorrow (NFP). Have market participants simply been conceding to sell into the USDollar strength ahead of NFP? Looks like we may have hit a top here - but, will sellers hold the level and expose themselves to unavoidable volatility in less than 24 hours.

HD link to image

Seems like I was right about the USD.

My rational fundamentals analyse capital flows. It was telling me for a while the Euro is overbought and any Euro news will only seek to strengthen the Euro against its peers. Such is the manipulation of ECB and those in favour of the super state.

USD will move higher in the short term but in the long-term the FED agenda is a weaker managed USD. Yellen is skilfully returning USD strength to manageable levels and sustain the FED’s grip on the capital markets and the currency of first reserves. Right now I won’t bet on the USD going any lower.

That said as a speculator there are many shorting opportunities.

Still willing to take that bet?
Hope you weren’t caught on the other side of this…

Relying solely on fundamentals without confirming bias via the charts is a dangerous game.
Regardless of the NFP print, the downside has been favored for a while.


Oh! I do use technicals, only EUR/USD cannot be relied on with regards to technicals so combining with fundamentals and capital flows is my style, fundamentals and COT clearly shows a long Bias on the EURO with pullbacks on COT extremes. Technicals were not aligning with the fundamentals (anomaly).

My preference is a sell once it hits 1.4100 (fundamentals say not sustainable), obviously the entry will require confirmation, longterm the EURO will remain Bullish as the ECB has said countless times the EURO will be saved at any cost. I certainly will not short before. The FED will at some point have to strengthen the USD for many reasons not to mention. In other words things will return to normal.

What then for the Euro at those levels? Soros has recently echoed this exact point. I like the full picture especially when looking beyond the intraday movements. Not even you could argue the longterm position on the EURO is a short. The Eurozone is a mess not even the golden tongue of Draghi could stop a Euro sell off. NFP is just a taste. The market makers are shaking the trees, more NFP’s to come (surprising the numbers are just rising seeing no one in the US can see the employment)…