What's happening to GBP/USD?

[emeraldorc]

Thanks a lot guys for your continuous support and help. So, now I need your final approval.

[B]1)[/B] What you say is that if this is the best time to close all my trades or shall I wait in hoping that it may retrace back even a little to like 1.66 level? What are the odds that this pair will go bearish more without a retracement?

[B]2)[/B] Shall I only close GBPUSD or also close EURUSD trades too?

Large Screenshot: http://oi62.tinypic.com/21o1pqr.jpg

Please Help. Even if there is a little retracement chances than please let me know. Please consider yourself in my shoes and my account size and advise what would you have done in my position. Thanks a lot.

The Euro in my opinion will make 1.3020 in the next coming days. In fact I am short the Euro on my micro account that I use for testing. I am +60 pips and I just added another lot because I am predicting a lower move. Got to your money where your mouth is.

I would have traded this on my standard account but I had no more risk room. I just needed to make the trade regardless…

That in mind I think since you are on the wrong side of the order flow and worse on the wrong side of the institutional volume. It is like trying to stop a freight train. Logically you are down 2880 Quid that means someone is up that much and multiply by 1,000 some fund is up this week alone… Why on earth would they take profit now when they can capture another +100 pips. There is no good news in either the Eurozone or Sterling to motivate such a move.

The only thing that will happen is the losers will liquidate their positions at some point due to wipeout or voluntary and those sell orders will also come on the market and depress the price further and more USD will be bought as a result. How can price return to 1.6600?

Close all now and save your account…

[kashif314]

The Euro in my opinion will make 1.3020 in the next coming days. In fact I am short the Euro on my micro account that I use for testing. I am +60 pips and I just added another lot because I am predicting a lower move. Got to your money where your mouth is.

I would have traded this on my standard account but I had no more risk room. I just needed to make the trade regardless…

That in mind I think since you are on the wrong side of the order flow and worse on the wrong side of the institutional volume. It is like trying to stop a freight train. Logically you are down 2880 Quid that means someone is up that much and multiply by 1,000 some fund is up this week alone… Why on earth would they take profit now when they can capture another +100 pips. There is no good news in either the Eurozone or Sterling to motivate such a move.

The only thing that will happen is the losers will liquidate their positions at some point due to wipeout or voluntary and those sell orders will also come on the market and depress the price further and more USD will be bought as a result. How can price return to 1.6600?

Close all now and save your account…

Thanks a lot for the detailed reply. So what about EURUSD? Kindly check my screenshot and let me know if that needs to be close as well or if there is room for that trade?

[emeraldorc]

Yes Kashif close both and get out… Both are going South very quickly.

[PipMeHappy]

Hello Kashif…

Emeraldorc makes a compelling argument against your holding on to those open trades;

I was also reading this article and I thought you may like to read it too:

The Psychology of Holding a Losing Trade

There is nothing more for you to do than to make your own

decision at this point: I could not tell you more than I already have, and I really would not want to take

responsibility for your final decision… Emeraldorc and I could be proven wrong out of the blue and maybe

the GBP/USD could turn around without warning… Markets are illogical: our only defence against their

capriciousness is managing our accounts and limiting our losses…

[B]It seems to me that these trades were not your trades to own in

the first place, because they were part of an automated strategy that failed in the face of a clear reversal in GBP/USD

and continued to go wrong, without your control over it… It would have been different if you had opened them

with a clear intention to manage them as large ‘swing’ trades, thus allowing for moves as wide as 300 pips or even more

‘against’ you, where in fact you were doing so on the basis that you would see this as a minor correction within a wider

move in your favour, worth twice that or more… THEN it would have made sense to hold on, because you probably

would have made allowances in terms of how much money (=lot size) you would have invested in proportion to the

size of the swing against you and then in your favour… [/B]

Perhaps Emeraldorc is right: close everything; perhaps you are right: hold on and wait a little longer, continuing to fund the

trades, the ‘Martingale way’; perhaps I would myself struggle to know which way to go… Finally, however, it is YOUR money

and YOUR decision… I do not want to ‘dump’ you at this difficult time, but my advice stops here, because it really should

not extend further… And if we were wrong, and you were right all along, then it would feel much better for you to have

made the right decision INDEPENDENTLY of us… We are all human and we can all get it wrong… Damage limitation is all

we have, when in a difficult situation…

GOOD LUCK, Kashif!

[kashif314]

@emeraldorc

Yes Kashif close both and get out… Both are going South very quickly.

@PipMeHappy

Hello Kashif…

Emeraldorc makes a compelling argument against your holding on to those open trades;

I was also reading this article and I thought you may like to read it too:

The Psychology of Holding a Losing Trade

There is nothing more for you to do than to make your own

decision at this point: I could not tell you more than I already have, and I really would not want to take

responsibility for your final decision… Emeraldorc and I could be proven wrong out of the blue and maybe

the GBP/USD could turn around without warning… Markets are illogical: our only defence against their

capriciousness is managing our accounts and limiting our losses…

[B]It seems to me that these trades were not your trades to own in

the first place, because they were part of an automated strategy that failed in the face of a clear reversal in GBP/USD

and continued to go wrong, without your control over it… It would have been different if you had opened them

with a clear intention to manage them as large ‘swing’ trades, thus allowing for moves as wide as 300 pips or even more

‘against’ you, where in fact you were doing so on the basis that you would see this as a minor correction within a wider

move in your favour, worth twice that or more… THEN it would have made sense to hold on, because you probably

would have made allowances in terms of how much money (=lot size) you would have invested in proportion to the

size of the swing against you and then in your favour… [/B]

Perhaps Emeraldorc is right: close everything; perhaps you are right: hold on and wait a little longer, continuing to fund the

trades, the ‘Martingale way’; perhaps I would myself struggle to know which way to go… Finally, however, it is YOUR money

and YOUR decision… I do not want to ‘dump’ you at this difficult time, but my advice stops here, because it really should

not extend further… And if we were wrong, and you were right all along, then it would feel much better for you to have

made the right decision INDEPENDENTLY of us… We are all human and we can all get it wrong… Damage limitation is all

we have, when in a difficult situation…

GOOD LUCK, Kashif!

Thanks a lot both PipMeHappy and emeraldorc. Like you guys suggested I closed all the trades.

It was a painful thing to do but I did it to save further loss and equity. It may take time for me to back to trading and now I want to be back with a new plan and the important factor of that plan would be to trade manually. I have to learn first. I learnt a lot from you guys and I still have to learn a lot from both of you. Like I said I need a break from trading but I have a lot of questions to ask when I ll start demo. I ll use emeraldorc’s thread http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/66260-brief-share-questions-around-volume-any-contribution-welcome-34.html for this purpose. I will check and reply on forum in the meanwhile.

Thanks a lot once again for all the support and help.

[aminio]

Brave decision, if I read it correctly ! Really best of luck.

[kashif314]

Brave decision, if I read it correctly ! Really best of luck.

Thanks a lot bro. Had to do it. Should have gotten out of these trades early but lesson learned. Will try not to repeat the same mistake again. Now I realize that how difficult it is to stand against a trend and learned the hard way the importance of the famous quote, “Trend is your friend”.

[PipMeHappy]

Another thing: just be happy that you do
not have to answer questions to shareholders/clients
about the money you lost…it is yours and so it is only
you who you need to be accountable to…

Also, imagine if you were relying on trading as an income
for your daily life: again, you do not have that pressure,
which makes it slightly better when things go bad…

[kashif314]

Another thing: just be happy that you do
not have to answer questions to shareholders/clients
about the money you lost…it is yours and so it is only
you who you need to be accountable to…

Also, imagine if you were relying on trading as an income
for your daily life: again, you do not have that pressure,
which makes it slightly better when things go bad…

Thanks a lot for your kind words bro. Yes after closing it out I am now in peace. All this time I was in doubt all the time that if it will go up or further go down etc. But, there is one problem that since I don’t do any job so I was looking Forex trading as my sole income in near future. This is making me so much worried now that what if I don’t get success in Forex trading. Like I said I dont do any job and the reason is that I suffer from chronic depression and anxiety and on top of that I have IBS and at any time I may have to rush to wash room and that is why I choose Forex trading to make a living. My Father gave me this money and he also gave me the 2000 USD which I later invested to save my draw down which in the end I didnt save and had to close my positions in a loss. My Father told me while giving the money that its your money and you dont have to return it and if you blow it in one night even then I ll not blame you for it.

But, I know that this money is my first and last chance and I cant ask for more money as he is already doing a lot for me so that is why I am so concerned about losing it. Like I said I will now need your and emerald’s valuable suggestions to set up a trading strategy and money management plan. Right now I am relaxing a bit till I come back and thinking of trading again. I am watching movies all night long and trying to keep myself busy so I ll forget this loss and start over with new passion.

[PipMeHappy]

Thanks a lot for your kind words bro. Yes after closing it out I am now in peace. All this time I was in doubt all the time that if it will go up or further go down etc. But, there is one problem that since I don’t do any job so I was looking Forex trading as my sole income in near future. This is making me so much worried now that what if I don’t get success in Forex trading. Like I said I dont do any job and the reason is that I suffer from chronic depression and anxiety and on top of that I have IBS and at any time I may have to rush to wash room and that is why I choose Forex trading to make a living. My Father gave me this money and he also gave me the 2000 USD which I later invested to save my draw down which in the end I didnt save and had to close my positions in a loss. My Father told me while giving the money that its your money and you dont have to return it and if you blow it in one night even then I ll not blame you for it.

But, I know that this money is my first and last chance and I cant ask for more money as he is already doing a lot for me so that is why I am so concerned about losing it. Like I said I will now need your and emerald’s valuable suggestions to set up a trading strategy and money management plan. Right now I am relaxing a bit till I come back and thinking of trading again. I am watching movies all night long and trying to keep myself busy so I ll forget this loss and start over with new passion.

There is much more at steak for you than I knew; what is clear is that you have a great family behind you. If you were a friend of mine I would come round and we would watch films and talk this trading thing over…but, as that is not possible, we can at least use these threads…

Good luck… I will try to help, like Sheryl (PipNRoll), and Emerald…

[PipMeHappy]

Kashif…

It seems like this pair is trading lower and lower…

Look at those moving averages!!

You must be ‘glad’ that you got out …

[FOREXunlimited]

@PipMeHappy

Kashif…

It seems like this pair is trading lower and lower…

Look at those moving averages!!

You must be ‘glad’ that you got out …

Looks like it’s about to breakout…I’m short.

[peterma]

The CBI survey on services coupled with the strong USD helped today’s moves.

I’m not short yet.

I’d say a few guys are eying 6460

The USDX didn’t do any harm to the moves either.

[peterma]

BTW, the current daily chart of USDX:

[FOREXunlimited]

BTW, the current daily chart of USDX:

Do you watch the USDX exclusively?
Have you ever looked @ / utilized the FXCM DJ USDollar Index?

Jake

[Abdul2012]

Hi,
Good analysis man , thank you.

[peterma]

Yeah, used to watch that one on Netdania, since I use the USDX for comparative purposes it’s irrelevant to me which one.

The charts on my broker site obviously are USDX futures, so I just keep it simple, likewise many bank analysts use the USDX so when they talk about specific levels it’s easier to know their meaning.

Edit: One of the banks, cannot remember which one, were noting today’s USDX levels, in particular where it may close, cannot even remember the actual level he was referring to, maybe 82.50.

If I had pulled up FXCM’s index the comments would have been meaningless to me.

[peterma]

What’s happening today on GBP is an old fashioned squeeze, it was very much on the cards this past few days, price was never going to reach 6460 without first squeezing out the shorts.

It’s been cooking this past few days. May not be over yet.

The USDX and the CRB were the giveaway.

[asfar]

Dear friends what is going on GBP, last two days something different fluctuation, so can we decide graph break and stat to raise… give us your suggestion too…

[PipMeHappy]

Probably an accumulation, causing price to stall, waiting for a trigger to initiate the next distribution phase… Without a volume graph in front of me, I could not tell you more…