What's your thought on USD going down?

Beginner Questions
1

According to fx daily, the recent USD downward trend is attributed to three reasons, see below
"Two fundamental drivers that could be steering the US Dollar to the downside include the influx of risk appetite – stemming largely from trade deal progress between Washington and Beijing in addition to a clear path to Brexit – and also the Fed pumping billions of Dollars into the system each day. ",
do you agree or disagree?

Further more, CNBC market shed dim light on macroeconomics for the current markets of US, Europe and Japan – negative bond yield, see below,
“
BONDS ›
TREASURIES-U.S. yields tumble as China trade deal already priced in
YIELD
CHANGE
US 10-YR 1.824 -0.075
US 30-YR 2.254 -0.067
US 5-YR 1.657 -0.079
US 2-YR 1.608 -0.062
US 3-MO 1.564 -0.008
Bund 10-YR -0.297 -0.003
JPN 10-YR -0.028 -0.006
”

So, based on the current development, where do you see USD in medium-term, say toward the end of year 2019?

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2

Unless there is unexpected trade progress between the US and China its hard to see the USD making any great upwards movement in the foreseeable future - I’d go as far out as end of Q1 2020.

That said, I only trade on about a 5-day horizon, I’ve no plans to tie money into the projection for as far ahead as 3 months.

There are other currencies with better clarity to trade - short JPY, long GBP, long NZD (maybe).

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