It is often said that you won’t get anywhere unless you persist in Forex, a mega money making skill is not something you acquire overnight, BUT how long do you persist with your strategy?
It’s no good persisting with a strategy that’s never going to work, so you’d want to drop it as soon as possible, but how long do you persist with a strategy that you know/expect that does work but is taking quite a while to learn?
I think my answer is a couple of weeks to a month, before you should seriously consider if something is worth persisting with, but how do you know you’ve done the right thing without hindsight, if you do persist you might still get it to work for you?
When would you give up and move on? I’m not sure if I could have!
However, if you’re making a string of consecutive losses, you can mostly be assured that it’s probably a result of the phase of the market. Every system is good at one or two things and quite crappy at everything else.
You should compare the health of the market during the consecutive losses to the health of the market during a string of consecutive wins. Of course, then the hard part is accurately predicting the health of the future market so you know when to get in and when to stay out.
You’re absolutely right - You never can tell (I think I know a song about that :D)
My whole strategy is based on accurately predicting the health of the future market, but in the next few seconds only, I suppose a simple approach to the hardest part, which is that - the market will continue to do what the market is doing until it does something else, i.e. in my case - move in the same direction.
Yep, also make sure you’re not trading the dead period or Asia session (unless you like a quiet market). You get a lot more weird moves during those times.
The only way to tell is backtest it. Choose random months weeks and days from this year last year 2 years ago 5 years ago, and if it appears to work consistantly all those times in widely varying market conditions it probably will continue to do so
You think! I developed an EA that made a consistent, steady profit for 8 years and then started losing money hand over fist, I think I spent about 6 weeks on it, I think it was then when I gave up on them.
Optimization guarantees your EA will work for past data but has a good chance to break future prospects. You can easily make a MA crossover strategy that gives you amazing profit when backtesting via optimization, but it will never work in forward tests.
A widely known statistical principle is that given a large enough sample size, a correlation can be found to be statistically significant even though no such relationship exists in reality. That is a similar type of trap you’re falling into.
Mine will work.
I traded the system manually first, its a rather complex system of trading so it was hard to do manually, it involves 4 sets of positions, a maximum of 7 positions to each member of the set, so it can have a total of 28 orders open, each member of the set opens an initial position which will be closed out immediatly if it loses 1 pip. if that position makes profit subsequent positions get opened in steps, each position, just like the initial position can be closed out if it makes a loss of 1 pip and then reopened if it meets critera again.
If any position makes more than the spread then reverses it gets closed out at break even.
there are 4 seperate critera for trading on, which can be, and often are active simultaneously, whch is how it can reach a maximum of 28 open positions.
The system will make huge profits but has the potential to make equaly huge losses which i have eliminated by the 1 pip negative stop out condition.
I manualy tested my system but it was difficult to keep up with and I lost track several times and missed some of the positions I should have opened and some of them I should have closed so I made some losses I shouldnt have made and missed profits I should have made.
Even though that happend I made an average of 1800 pips per day profit over the previous week which is why I am making an EA to do it I couldnt keep up with it and I couldnt trade 24 hrs a day, the EA can hehe
Find how you like to trade, for me OB/OS + S/R. Some people like MAs and BBands. Find what you like and work with it, it’s not really 2 weeks using this or a month with that. Once you know what you like to use you can continue to develop your strategy longterm and adjust it to changing markets.
