Where do i get the economic information from the horse mouth?

I know what you mean, definitely. Like I mentioned above, I’m not keen on trying to just actively trade news releases for the sake of themselves as it’s often a crapshoot. In this case, the inherent bias for price to move upward in the first place was really the driving force for my playing this, but just wanted to note how having the news helped add some activity leading up to it; not to mention earlier news this week from the region also helped keep it active the past few days.

Zaghloul,

i think there may be some confusion here…i’m not for a moment talking about insider information. I think the forex market is one of the most efficient markets out there…and that the only type of insider moves are when banks get to front run large orders from clients. But that’s also being wound down with all this FX Probe stuff going on. And again, the fx probe was manipulation, not insider trading.

What i believe in, and what we’re doing here, is having a piggy back ride on evident sentiment (news) driven flows.

Well Kuzia’s comment is what threw me off. He thinks he can tell 1 hour to 1 min before a release how its going to go because the big boys get an early heads up. I’ve heard others make that claim on this and other forums too. But I remain highly skeptical, although I am certain that insider trading happens all the time (yes the current investigation is only about rigging, but that doesn’t mean there is no insider trading). However, the recipients of the insider information are not stupid enough to act on the information in a way that is evident by looking at a price chart or volumes or anything else.

Yeah, I agree there. Besides, if they’re putting on major size ahead of a big event that they somehow happened to get access to beforehand…they wouldn’t necessarily want price moving along with them the whole time; they’d more likely want to build their position without much slippage within a range or even going against them a little bit, knowing the news flow would drive them into profits and they could then close out for the win.

I think this thread is being pulled off course.

I personally believe it’s useless to talk about insider trading and actually spend time debating how much insider trading goes on…because

#1 if someone knows something before hand, they need to decide either do act upon it or not. If they act upon it, and it’s something sensitive, they will not be alone. Others will have the same info.

#2 the moment they act on it, if you’re well versed in chart reading, you’ll be put in a position to benefit from it. I’m not saying you will “see” the big guys acting…but their actions will influence price. And if price is doing something important, i’ll usually be in there somewhere.

What i’m saying is: i personally spend 0 time thinking about manipulation, insider trading, whether someone knows something i don’t. I concentrate on what i can control: myself. Chart reading has it’s limitations but i know the limitations and i know the chart represents all the exchanges that happen all around the world on the instrument. I do not know who is acting or why…there are millions of different agendas at work. I only need to understand whether it’s doing something interesting to me, and what i’m going to do about it.

Going back to the main sources of information, the reason for this thread, i’d say that Bloomberg and Reuters are the main sources for those who can afford them. There are some free sources too, like Oanda’s newsfeed and Orderflowtrading.com (full disclosure: i use OFT and am very satisfied).

I see where you’re coming from. There absolutely is movement of information that isn’t publicly available, but the nature of that means specifically that we won’t know what kind of information is being exchanged. Thing is, not every action based on that information will have an obvious influence on price. Like I said, if they’re looking to accumulate larger positions they still have to deal with the liquidity issues and have to be careful to not push price to far in their direction.

The takeaway point, which I think we all agree on, is you can’t really predict this perfectly. Which again, comes down to using the news as nothing more than an alert on upcoming volume/activity/volatility. It doesn’t provide perfect directional bias, it doesn’t make a system viable in itself, but using that increased participation as a helpful part of a system as a whole can make a big difference.