Hello all,
I’m very new to the forex world and I’m only now taking the first steps to better understand it.
Lately I’ve been visiting the forex forums daily and keeping a close tab on the exchange rates because I have 200K in USD that over the last year lost quite a bit of value against the EUR. Since I’m from Europe this is affecting me a lot.
Deutsche Bank bank predictions as well as a private banker who I’ve been having talks with still predict 1.45 by end of the year.
What is the sentiment of you guys about a possible recovery of the greenback by the end of this year, or first months of 2009?
I’m stressing out everytime I see the dollar hit new lows because I have almost all my money in USD (long story but the short version is that I receive in USD and have been waiting for better days to exchange part of the money - only if I had a crystal ball a year ago :/).
Thanks in advance for any input given.
Steven
UBS bank advised all its customers all of last year to invest in dollars and look where it is now. If that tells you anything, it tells you that the big banks don’t know… or deliberately mislead their customers, I’m never sure.
From a fundamental point of view, as the US enters into recession, it strongly suggests that the dollar will continue to fall while the Euro is still holding up well against all currencies. But eventually the Euro will inevitably be affected by the global effects of the US problems, and so the question is when will that turning point be?
There, doesn’t help much does it?! Personally, if I had �200k sat in dollars, I’d exchange it now for Euros, and the moment the newspapers started filling up with stories about doom and gloom in Europe - in 6 months, maybe 12, possibly 18, I’d move it back to US again.
Don’t forget though, I could be completely and utterly wrong 
Thanks for the reply.
What hurts me the most is looking at the exchange rates of 8 months ago and see that I lost close to 20% of that amount to today’s exchange rate.
And what’s really scary is I have no idea where things will be in 6-12 months time. 1.45, 1.65, 2.00 ?!?!
I see my savings shrinking week after week but I’ve been trying to remain cool thinking that things can’t continue going downhill for much longer, but now I’m not that sure anymore.
Anyone have more comments/suggestions/ideas to share? I would love to hear them.
Don’t let the 20% down hurt you. In the business world if you make a wrong decision you end up 100% down out all money. I know at these rates many will want to capitulate on the long term. If I had your same decision ( which I may be wrong bigtime ), I would not exchange back until this time next year. On the fundamental end, the US will go into a recovery stage. It is due to. If not, it is the end of the world anyway, so what does money matter. The recovery will happen just like it always does. The lagging effects of the US economy are due to catch up with the rest of the world, just like always. On the technical end, just look at the monthly chart. My speculation on technicals alone would be that it’s out of steam. I could be dead wrong on this one, but that’s my bet.