Market structure shows the short term high made on Aug 5 being taken out on Aug 21. This is made more apparent on the 4H chart. This suggested the probability of price going higher. Look for a short opportunity at about 135.30. But keep in mind that the trend may have changed to the upside so if you take the short then make sure to get out at about 130.70 or before.
This is for a demo trade only. Please do not trade a live account as suggested. I shall not be held responsible for any losses you incur should my analysis be wrong.
When it comes to volatile currencies, would you really base a trade decision on charts alone without looking at economical and monetary factors? Suddenly there’s a military coup in Japan or a corporate giant goes bust and Yen tanks to a record low. Charts can’t predict events like that. Of course, I’m not going to go into real trading with a mindset like this. Only trying to understand how you experienced guys make decisions.
Nope. I didn’t even look at charts. I read a lot of Japanese local news and analysis. Growth predictions, employment figures, political trends. Everything looked like Yen was going to go wild! And Pound losing at least some ground seemed like a no-brainer to me.
That’s what is so exciting about it. We’ll surely see lots of ups and downs in the coming months.
I’m a pure price action trader. I never pay attention to the news or to economic indicators. I have found no correlation to any of that with price and therefore I consider it to be a colossal waste of my time. Wars and disasters are an entirely different matter.
But, if not considering price action works for you then keep doing whatever it is that is working for you.
Your a hundred percent right technical analysis needs to be used in conjunction with fundamental news… I agree with you TECHNICALS GET KILLED BY FUNDAMENTALS
A good strategy is to build a technical picture /prediction so you know where naturally the price action is heading and then build a fundamental picture so you know how fundamental news can effect predicted trajectory… It might take me a webinar to explain so this is a simplified explanation.
That is great your researching and you may well be right but technically something might need to shake out before your right like for example we could be heading up to a resistance point and selling won’t occur untill we hit resistance
Lol once we hit resistance we could see accelerated selling if your right
We all know the GBP has been chronically weak due to Brexit uncertainties and the increased probability of a no-deal Brexit since Boris Johnson’s appointment as Prime Minister.
We all also know that tariff wars, global political tensions and slower Chinese economic growth have tilted risk tolerance of the largest players towards negative. This has made them sell AUD, NZD and USD, while buying JPY and CHF. GBP could have been an alternative as a less risky destination for cash than AUD etc. but Brexit uncertainties have removed that avenue: similar could be said for the EUR, though the EUR is a consistently poorly managed currency from a consistently weakening economy so could never in its history have been described as a safe haven.
But none of this is useful for the short-term trader if you don’t look at price action.
On price action more specifically, see the daily charts.
03/09 printed a hammer at a low point in a downtrend that ran from 22/08: this is often a reversal signal from price falling to price rising. The daily low of the 03/09 was a touch higher than the low of 12/08, also a bullish signal. Interestingly, 12/08 was also a hammer and was followed by a rise to the high of 22/08. None of these factors suggested the next price action would be downwards.
In any case, the better prices for entering a resumption of the long-established GBP/JPY downtrend were in the region of 26/08-02/09, when price was running out of upwards momentum and was resuming its fall. Selling on 03/09 was selling at a low, which is as bad a sin as buying at a high.
Other GBP charts show similar bullish patterns for 03/09 - CAD, CHF and USD, plus EUR/GBP (reversed).
The fundamental issues confronting the UK and Japan did not change much between the 2nd and 3rd September, but the price chart changed considerably.
When ever i feel fully confident that price will go in one direction, experience have showed me that i should start to unzip my pants and bring them down to my knees because im about to get F…
A trader is never fully confident that price will go in one direction.
