Why i was wrong about selling at retest?

Why i was wrong about selling at retest?

How do you know you are wrong ? Who tell you this ?

(I’m not telling to sell again.)

If you think you are wrong (probably because your stop was filled) I would ask you: how do you know your stop were at correct price ?

My questions may seen a little dummie, but I’m trying to make you think about your strategie.
You need be confident to get into a trade. We never know what will happen, but we work side by side with major probabilities and and major trend :wink:

If you add a 20 and 50 SMA on your chart, you’ll see that price had been trading above both so on this timeframe, AUDCHF was in an uptrend.

Looks like you decided to fade the trend when yous aw the double top against that trendline you drew.

You shorted after the downside breakout of previous support.

Your entry wasn’t bad but I see a couple of things that would’ve worried me:

  • You decided to against the timeframe’s prevailing short-term trend so you’re already going against the path of least resistance (which is up).
  • Where you entered short, it was pretty close to the 50 SMA and you should’ve expected that to possibly act as a dynamic support level and for the price to potentially bounce from there (which it did).

That said, If your descending trendline holds as resistance though, that would mean a lower high would’ve formed so you may want to think about trying to short again.

Especially if the current candle closes with a long upper wick.

Seems like 0.6150 -60 level is being rejected.

Potential short trade would be to short on a reversal candlestick (long upper wick). Even better if it closes below 20 SMA.

Put a stop loss above the most recent swing high, say 0.6210.

Target the 200 SMA and 0.6000 psychological level…say 0.5980 - 0.6000.

So assuming the current candle closes at 0.6150 and you enter market.

Your risk 60 pips to make 150 to 170 pips. Around a 2.5:1 or 2.8: 1 reward/risk ratio.

Really depends on the price action of the current candle (and next ones). You want to see weakness.

If you see a strong candle that looks like the last one you have on your chart, probably a good idea to hold off and see how price reacts once it gets back up to the 0.6200 area.

If you go up to the daily chart, you’ll see there’s a battle right now around the 50 SMA. If that level holds, uptrend looks likely to resume up to 0.6600, its last swing high and around the 200 SMA.

1 Like

Also fogot to mention that AUD is a “risk-on” currency while CHF is a “risk-off” or safe haven currency.

If the equity markets go up, which are considered risker assets, AUD/CHF will probably go up as well.

So keep an eye on that market as well. Especially U.S. equities.

2 Likes

I dont even see a candle to sell on a ‘retest’.

It’s all looking bullish to me. See the slope of the 50ma.

It’s a countertrend play. Need a lower high to form first.

AUDCHF closed below its 20 and 50 SMA a couple of bars ago.

Hopefully, y’all were able to go short.

I look for price to fall and retest its 200 SMA and the 0.5960-5950 zone.