Why is news/fundamental trading so hit and miss?

I have it in preordered :grin:, I’ll tell them to never trust a banker.

My USD0.02 after working on a web app for retail traders that tries to identify opportunity and minimise risk by monitoring major news sources for mentions of stock, forex and cryptocurrencies.

We felt that there could be valuable clues in the timing of news and sure enough, there are clues to be found. Even though correlation is not causation, the prepared trader looking for mentions of the right vehicles at the right sources at the right time can use news with other contextual information to make an informed decision quickly enough to plan and execute a move.

An example from the stock world : when Activision Blizzard posted job vacancies for the Diablo team, it hinted that they were working on a follow-up to a successful game. Sure enough, they were. The early news coverage preceded an increase in their stock price, at which point more news sources ran the story. Similarly, when PepsiCo ordered a heap of Tesla trucks.

In my limited experience with forex, I get the impression that the relationships between news events and price moves are far more nuanced than in the stock markets. There is still news of events that affect markets, as anyone with an interest in Sterling over the last few years can tell you, but identifying relationships between events and economies isn’t necessarily straightforward.

To trade the news you have to get it in real time. so subscribe to premium news site like ransqwank or Bloomberg professional and trade based on the outcome.
Reason why most retail traders lose money during news time is because they try to guess which way price will go.
To be profitable trading the news, you have to do your pre news analysis and determine what to do when it miss or beat consensus. Or if it’s an important speech you can analyse and decide what to do if it came out dovish or hawkish.

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They are both hit and miss because noone can control the market. The one thing that we can do it control ourselves. Plan the trade and trade the plan then find the way to improve it and not make same mistake again.