Why is this analysis incorrect?

Beginner Questions
1

So here I went into a long position based on the following factors:

  1. Clear uptrend on lower and higher TF’s. (30M, 1H, 4H, 1D)
  2. Crossover on the MACD.
  3. Bullish candles preceding the entry.
  4. Good momentum against my yellow trendline.
  5. Breakout from a small resistance zone.

I have attached a screenshot of the cart I used and drawn a yellow arrow depicting where I entered the trade. As you can see, price is falling against what I thought was a decent entry based on albeit the limited anaysis. I’m looking for advice on why this was not a good trade and other form of analysis I could take away from this. Ie., is my trendline accurate, is my analysis mentioned above accurate etc?

Thanks!

trader enter
trader enter1534×846 194 KB

2

Hi, you can’t expect that all your trades will be in profit, you are use indicators, mathematic calculation from the past. How you backtesting this strategy? Regards Greg

3

I’ve just been using trading view to go back etc.

I understand lots of trades won’t win, but I was more wondering whether people agreed with my analysis

4

My analysis is different. I see a clear downtrend on the higher timeframes except for H4.
On the 15min TF we were building a distribution #3 and you placed your entry near the top of it.

I managed to get a re-entry at the point of supply and am almost at my take profit.

Screenshot (1023)
Screenshot (1023)1909×860 162 KB

1 Like
5

Always helps to zoom out and look left for some perspective.

6

When following an uptrend I always like to enter below the recent highest prices, as price recovers upwards from a minor low, a classic pull-back if you like. This usually through a pre-set order at my price. I go for V-shaped pull-backs in 45 degree slopes, I don’t find break-outs from sideways congestion have a very high probability.

1 Like
7

I think I’m beginning to see that this was not a positive trade for a multitude of reasons!

8

I got bored reading it, but I gave a like. There is no soul in it. You make it mechanical. Trading is a presence, it moves, it argues. It never says what it means, but you love it! Right or wrong, you stand by it!!

1 Like
9

Thanks for liking my post.

10

Looks like a late entry.

  1. I’ll assume your analysis of uptrend is correct.
  2. Macd crossed over a few candles before you bought.
  3. How many bullish candles are you waiting for before you think you should buy. There were 4 bullish candles before you bought. Do you think price will just keep going up forever?
  4. I think you should lose the trendline. Drawing uptrend trendlines like that are for buying at the reaction point from the trendline. Not after price has moved away.
  5. Look at buying as soon as it breaks out if you’re using resistance zones in an uptrend

These are just reasons why this trade may not have worked out but an important point: no matter how much we analyse it, this is just one trade and it might have just been one of those that lose as part of the statistics. So if you took the same trade many times it may be profitable over time.

2 Likes
11

Reading your post and reanalysing I can see your points clearly.