The maximum consecutive gain and loss of 1, and the almost perfect serial correlation of the returns e.g. win,loss,win,loss,win,loss,win,loss should give them a clue
quite possibly I think you’ve provided enough details for most people to make a start.
Anyone who fancies looking into this further should beware of possible holes in their data, particularly if your relying on Meta Trader. They tend to screw up the correlations ! I speak from experience
Awesome! After so much criticism and such I was beginning to wonder if anybody would figure it out. Feel free to message me, but ONLY if YOU want to–i know that people would consider it spam…with your thoughts!
All the materials you need, so that MOST traders will figure out how to become succsessfull, is in the first post? And you figured this out after 8 months of trading.
This is what you repeadedtly say, so it’s a yes or no. I just want to be clear.
That obviously depends on the relationship between the two populations, in this case its approximately linear so there’s no problem in just calculating a simple correlation coefficient.
If you check the forums, there’s no shortage of indicators that you can apply directly to a chart, the problem is, you need to watch out for missing data. Alternatively export time series and use excel. Alternatively if you dont want to calculate, you can get correlation coefficients from a whole bunch of places, mataf.net, Oanda etc but IIRC, they dont store historical values so in practical terms, thats probably next to useless
You ask how I do this, I developed a software application specifically to backtest these kinds of strategy, but you could do it in excel, its just a lot harder.
Ok, so for example, I’m looking at 30m on AUDUSD & USDCAD. I get the impression that they are highly negatively correlated…would that be correct?
Would one still use whatever strategy they would normally to enter a trade?.. I have had this situation before where a couple or more pairs signalled at the same time, the problem was picking one…the right one…lol.
So are you saying then instead of picking 1 pair, enter a 2nd pair that has the highest correlation? It seems correlations can be anywhere from 0 to 1, or 0 to -1…does it have to be 1 or -1? Sorry haven’t really studied the formulas yet, just trying to get the general idea.
Agreed, but logging onto mataf once an hour (or even once every five minutes) isnt really a very practical solution to a ridiculously simple problem that can be solved with a few lines of code !
What do you do if you want to calculate over a timeframe that they dont support ?
When I originally started looking at this approach, Mataf didnt even exist !, and although I used their data much later, their data was originally based on a fixed (and completely inappropriate) lookback period, so unfortunately (and thankfully) mataf wasnt really an option