No I’m sure the programs are not following the news. My point is that normal traders don’t know the complex algorithms these guys are using to basically move the market. Nor do we have the millions and millions of dollars to actually move price. So all we can do as the little fish is simply ride the waves. A break of “support” or “Resistance” can happen at any time for no reason at all. You must understand that like any market, the FX market is based on the economy…not so called patterns. Humans are not the only ones trading now and the markets don’t use supply and demand any more. This market is based off randomness and certain moves based off fundamentals. News like NFP and Retail Sales will always move the market and give you an idea of where the market will go in the future. Trading use to be buy and hold, now it’s like gambling and traders(day traders) try to use high leverage to profit from small fluctuations. Therefore they sit and stress all day long trying to figure out technical analysis. And trust me, I have seen guys lose their families due to trading taking over their lives.
The programs may not trade the news, but you can bet the algos that are being using are far too complex for the average joe to come up with.
I am sorry but… rolls eyes theres no need to bet it IMO. I am not picking a fight or whatever.
I am just stating a simple fact in the end… whats really the point of your thread, really? I was impressed by your 1st post and the rest… seems to be trying to push certain opinions to others using walls of texts. Those posts are very ramblingly, unclear and pushy.
Lets put it this way, if you are ok with it (I hope! No intend to offend you, just want to see what you post is concrete and has clear evidence) :
You have lots of premises, ideas and experiences, no doubt about that, based off what I see from your posts. I like that, really. Its promising.
What I am concerned is that you might be better off properly structuring your premises with some discipline and very clear justification, like how you did for the 1st post.
If you do that… then I can bet with you, you could gain anyone’s respect (if you are looking for it of course).
If you could actually come up with a clear scientific and statistical basis of everything that you said so far, with actual personal research and clear cut references, I am going to be more impressed. Meaning; don’t just ramble. Show us your actual homework. Treat it like a thesis if you must.
The reason why most indicators will fail is simply because they are lagging indicators, by the time you wish to react to the indicator’s movement, you are already lagging behind. There are only 2 known leading indicators out there :
- Volume , which we can’t attain because it’s way too hard to get that and no bank would release this information to us
- The magic of fibonacci retracements, the only way that we can tell beforehand where a trend might reverse
So if you really want an edge on the market, combine simple moving averages with fibonacci retracements, that’s all you need 
Personally for me, I take it one step further and just add in bollinger bands as further confirmations.