Wide Stops, Are You Kidding?

If you were following the AUD/USD pair yesterday, you would have eventually noticed that it completed an amazing V-reversal that it finally started pulling back on today.

The move was shocking, really, since you normally need a trading range at the end of a trend to complete a move like that. But instead, it took off, leaving trapped bears behind in the dust.

Finally, I decided I wanted in. So, I got in at the market, not waiting for a pullback.

Most traders trap themselves out of this kind of move for fear that it will reverse again, or that they somehow need a huge pullback to enter. However, by the time that huge pullback happens, you may miss the move altogether. I think it is just better to jump in, as I did here:

The green line represents where I entered and the red line is my stop-loss order. The white line represents where I will move my stop if I do indeed get another higher high. Incidentally, since there was no real pullback on this move, this will be the first higher low.

Still, most people freak out when they see a stop loss so far away. After all, how can I risk so much?

The secret is, I am not. My position size is about a third of what I would normally have on.

I also left myself with enough capital to scale in at the first major pullback. That way, I can exit break even on my first order and with a small profit on the second.

Or better yet, I can add to my position as the market continues up.

The most important thing is, try not to let wide stop losses deter you from trading. Simply trade smaller and allow enough room to let the market do its thing.

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I trade crypto currencies with an extreme example of what you have posted. I do not exercise any stop losses, because I do not use any leverage. It’s amazing what the results are when you actually do this and witness all the outcomes. If you define a loss as being stopped out of a trade by having placed a stop loss, I guess I could say that I have “discovered” a trading method that has a 100% success rate of not being stopped out. :sunglasses:

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Agreed @steveepperson, what percentage of stop loss you opt for your trading, is that same for all pairs or vary?

That’s a fantastic chart that is like gold dust awaiting. how I would play it is as follows:

I would place a pending Buy stop order price at the top of the last green candle as entry point, with a breathing space S/L a couple of candles below. That will allow me a full position size with the same/similar risk.

If I get it wrong, there’s a small loss and another trade awaiting - it could be just a wait and see if the price comes back up to the top of the next highest candle - and if I get it right straight away, I’ll make a larger profit.

And I always use a trailing S/L, not a T/P to maximise my profit. First stage is to get to breakeven, second stage is to a resistance zone, and if it breaks through that, it pays for all the small losses, breakevens, and more.

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I typically stick with the two-percent rule. I’m not trading a very large account right now, so I will go as high as five percent in some cases.

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Due to the false breakouts in forex, I am a bit leary of stop orders. Case in point:

Last night, the London session opened with a slightly higher high, possibly triggering stop orders long. Then, price plummeted until NY.

I chose to go ahead and place my stop loss break even. I could scale in on the way down since this looks like it will turn into a trading range. But since I trade with trends, I am hoping it resumes. If not, I will try again later with nothing lost.

It’s always possible to place both a Buy & Sell stop with a low position, and add to it when a trend movement is ‘underway.’

I’d most likely do that on your chart example, using a S/L with breathing space to allow for false breakouts that occur more regularly than not. Market inertia sentiment most likely favours a trend continuation. An end of trend signals are commonly big bang events.

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Thanks for info

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