Wilder's Trend Balance Point System (TBPS) and Pivot Points Revisited

[dpaterso]

Lastly and while I’m still wide awake and on a roll:

I stand by my earlier analysis that the S&P it going to make another new record high and that’s going to be that. And we are almost there.

Also interesting to note that according to one of the Options Houses (yesterday) there is some huge Put Option on the SPY and that expires at the end of next week. In other words: somebody with a lot of money has a $1.5B (as in BILLION) short term bet that the S&P is going to tank after all of these big tech. earnings have been done and dusted and out of the way (regardless of the figures). That’s no joke.

Also very interesting to note (and I cannot say that I was aware of this and have not really worked it out for myself) that according to Bloomberg: the S&P has not moved more than 1% in either direction for the last THIRTY ONE TRADING DAYS (talking about the CASH INDEX here i.e. it may not appear to be so on a Futures Chart).

[dpaterso]

Well. Four earnings beats one after the other just after the close. All beating estimates.

[dpaterso]

Needless to say: long entries being signaled on all three (Dow, S&P, NASDAQ). Am waiting for the open of the Futures and will go long at market (unless a gap up in which case will place limit buy orders or just skip the trades altogether). TPs will be placed as per the calc. detailed earlier this evening. And then it is time for bed. Gotta tell ya: trading intraday is taking its toll as are these late nights. Not entirely sure that this is sustainable in the long run. Not in this timezone anyway. Not unless an entire change in daily routine is implemented anyway. Fine for now though I guess.

[dpaterso]

Morning.

Went long last night at market i.e. no gaps to speak of when the Futures opened again so no problem.

Overnight: prices moved slightly up but nowhere near to TP levels. Have moved down again slightly. Have decided to add to the positions by placing limit buy orders just north of the daily pivot (but managed to place orders only on the Dow and the S&P as the NASDAQ is currently trading too close to its daily pivot for me to be able to place the order so will monitor and go long at market if or when possible to do so).

[dpaterso]

Well. Got my orders filled. And went long at market on the NASDAQ (but at a much better price than the original entry).

So we sit back and wait for the rally!!! LOL!!!

[dpaterso]

TPs hit on S&P and the NASDAQ (on both the original TBPS trades as well as the additional positions taken at the daily pivots). A thing of beauty to be sure. For some reason or the other I’ve not had Bloomberg on today (thought it was a bit quiet actually i.e. will remedy shortly) but something must have happened in those last few bars (I’m guessing earnings or something). The Dow for some reason didn’t follow suit and actually traded DOWN to its S1. So (and this because of the ticks) I added another long at S1 and that I closed out at the Dow’s daily pivot. So now it’s monitoring the ticks for the rest of the day. Out at this point for 926.70.

S&P 500 5m

Oh and lest I forget to mention: took a 50 knock on GBPFUCKINGCHF!!! LOL!!! Why do I even bother to try with FOREX. The result is the same ALWAYS!!! LOL!!! (But alright: never really gave it a chance and am quite keen to actually see how this TBPS will perform on a FOREX pair so am going to do the calcs but only for this pair and see what happens).

[dpaterso]

And once the Dow breaks through its daily pivot (and I have no reason to believe it will not as the ticks have stayed positive since the open) then the original TBPS TP on the Dow will get hit too. So could be another 401 or thereabouts.

If the ticks tank: will get long something or the other again of course. That’s how my days go!!!

Dow 5m

[dpaterso]

Just to demonstrate the value of market internals (one of the many).

No sooner had I posted the post above and the Dow tanked again. Apparently it’s Boeing and Caterpillar pulling the Dow down. But whatever the case: went long AGAIN at S1 why??? The ticks were at the bottom of today’s range and price was near the pivot level. Not only that: how do I know that the most likely direction for the Dow is still up for today?? Because of something called the TRIN (Traders Arms). The TRIN is trending down which means that there is more volume going into advancing issues on the NYSE than into declining issues. So it doesn’t matter what price is currently doing. It’s the underlying market that’s where the rubber meets the road. I will now stay in these Dow long until either their respective TPs are hit or IF the ticks start hitting extreme lows of -800 (in which case the selling pressure has now way exceeded any buying pressure and it’s then time to get the ■■■■ out).

Dow 5m

$TRIN 5m

And by the way: note how the TRIN has been trending down for the past two sessions. And guess what: the last two sessions have been up.

[dpaterso]

Probably going to regret this but I cannot anymore. Tired. This type of trading does take it out of a person.

Unless something really untoward happens: the TBPS will signal a long trade (or in my case to stay long the Dow on this one outstanding position). But a very good day.

[dpaterso]

Morning.

Well I’m out. Closed the open Dow long from yesterday at just about BE this morning. Still a perfectly valid long trade but I need to work out my month end bills and withdraw. For some reason or the other I’m never comfortable doing this month end stuff unless all positions are closed out. Odd I suppose. But that’s just me.

At a cursory glance: the stats are fantastic on one hand. But disappointing on the other. Let me explain.

I came back here and started trading again, and full time, on 6 May.

As thing stand now today:

If I take the capital that I started the month of July with (actual cash in the account): I’m up 14.96% on July’s trading ONLY.

If I take the total capital that I’ve ever had at my disposal in this account (not accounting for withdrawals): I’m up 10.34% on July’s trading ONLY.

I’m happy with that PARTICULARLY seeing as it was only at the start of July that I started whacking pivots and Wilder’s TBPS seriously and in earnest (as opposed to simply experimenting and testing up until that point).

The disappointing part (and it’s not going to thrill some people I’m afraid):

If I take the total capital that I’ve ever had at my disposal in this account (not accounting for withdrawals): I’m up only 11.67% since 6 May.

See the elephant in the room???

What this essentially means is that only since I started trading pivots, Wilder’s TBPS, and got TradeStation have I made money to speak of. In essence what this means is that my TPS system has contributed just about nothing by way of profits since 6 May.

IN FAIRNESS though there are certain things that need to be taken into account.

I’d stopped trading somewhere around end of August last year (after my stellar Gold trade!!! LOL!!!). And had not given it another look until May this year. So stands to reason I was just getting back to things.

Instead of thumb sucking lot sizes I finally got down to calculating them proper with my risk based position sizing. This has definitely had a huge impact on the size of profits of my TPS system.

I HAVE to take into account the two bad trades at the end of June in fairness i.e. the lot sizes were GENUINE mistakes (not me trying to go balls to the wall but GENUINE mistakes). So I do need to normalize results taking this into account. And if I do that then the stats are as follows:

Taking into account the total capital that I’ve ever had in this account since 6 May: 18.80% gain.

I will admit that since starting to whack pivots, Wilder’s TBPS, and with TradeStation I’ve largely been ignoring my TPS system. That said: the signals have been very few and far between.

So make of the above what you will.

What is glaringly obvious to me is the fact that all things being equal and with using correct lost sizes: my TPS system is only good for “tradevesting” (a phrase I coined some time ago) (good hey). In other words: it’s not a monthly bill payer. Sad I must admit. Because it’s an easy and very low maintenance system to trade. But it is what it is. And I have to say that trading intraday is no walk in the park i.e. it sure is taking it out me. But I’m figuring that once I’m in a proper routine (which basically means sleeping much later in the mornings and deeming my trading day to only begin when the NYSE opens) that things will get easier over time.

So there you have it. Frankly I don’t see the point of even bothering with anything else other than pivots, Wilder’s TBPS, and TradeStation (market internals). The TPS system hogs margin for days on end and such margin is obviously better utilized day trading. If you’re not doing this for a living but want to make some serious cash in the long term: well then the TPS system is the way to go. But is this is your bread and butter: not going to happen.

I MAY still trade the Turtle Soup systems (particularly now as I’ll be looking for stock market corrections for now). Possibly also Memory of Price (double tops and double bottoms). But I shall see. Given the above stats. I just don’t see the point of hogging margin on longer term trades.

So there you have it.

Once I’ve withdrawn what I need for month end today I’ll obviously be back in so the results will improve by month end (how’s that for being confident and positive!!! LOL!!!). Particularly as it’s a Thursday today and for reason I’ve never been able to figure out for over a decade: Thursdays are usually the day when the markets REALLY move.

Anyways. Good trading to everyone.

Me: I’m happy. And particularly pleased with the clarity that the above stats. provide.

[dpaterso]

Oh well. Can add another 660 to the pot.

Not a stellar day. But for sure better than a kick in the arse. And particularly seeing as I actually didn’t feel like this today i.e. kinda felt like my mojo wasn’t jiving nice for most of the morning and the afternoon. For no particular reason that I can figure anyway.

For the one or two people that are at least watching all of this go down:

I’m waiting for my supa-dupa high speed Fiber to be activated. Should have happened today but, well, this is SA i.e. all connected up and configured and JUST needs somebody to push a button to activate but that’s a two day job apparently. Anyway: I digress. TradeStation needs some serious throughput I think. It’s working like a charm obviously. But speed is pretty much everything with this. And I’ve noticed that when the markets start ripping that I do get some lag with everything running.

Anyway and the above aside: I am actually toying with the idea of live streaming a trading day or session or two. I’m sure it’s possible to live stream a desktop or two??? May be a nice little project for me anyway. Point is: I’d really like to show what I’m doing and how this all works. And I will guarantee you that once you’ve seen this stuff in action: you’ll be gladly parting with $150 to TradeStation for this data!!! It is worth every cent and then some. I know for sure I’d not be able to be doing what I’m doing without it i.e. it would seriously be like trading in a haze and with blinkers on. Even today: the markets tanked. And you could actually see where they paused and buy orders started coming in. And guess what: those were the dudes catching the proverbial falling knife. No sooner did that happen and they tanked further. Only the ticks let me know when the knife had hit the ground and then it was time to go long. Alright: a little bit more to it than that (one or two other market internals that I use for confirmation). But nevertheless: it’s easy to see how these pro. and famous (infamous???) traders make their money. They for sure are not sitting watching some or the other lagging indicator and hoping that history is going to repeat itself.

Anyways. That’s me for the day I reckon. I can see some more trades setting up. But nah. Still not on top of the world. So an early night I reckon will do me good. Relax a bit. Watch some news. Watch some Bill Burr!!! LOL!!!

Later. Tomorrow.

Another 144. Goodnight.

I just realized something:

I’m supposed to be shorting these markets now am I not??? With Turtle Soup or Turtle Soup Plus One. Was thinking about it this morning and then forgot about it until I checked the daily charts now. Oh well: will see if I can get another valid (late) entry. It’s detailed in Street Smarts below for anybody interested (very good trading system by the way IF you trade it the way I do that is).

Connors - Raschke - Street Smarts

Right. Now I am DEFINITELY done for the day!!! NYSE closes in 39 mins and certainly no point in getting into a trade now.

Oops. And Amazon and Google (Alphabet) releasing earnings after the bell. Guess I’ll be watching from my iPad in bed then!!! LOL!!! For sure that will give the NASDAQ direction for the foreseeable future.

[dpaterso]

Well that was a thing of beauty and to behold:

Google beat BIG time. Amazon not. Google shot up +5%, Amazon shot down by as much as 3.5%. And I’m talking in SECONDS. Not something I have the stomach for I’m afraid. That’s the stock market equivalent of trading the news. Not for me. Get it wrong and you could easily wipe out a month’s work. And if you’re wrong: price moves so fast you’d never get out of the trade to save your hide.

Wow. Intel just beat BIG time too. Up 7.3% in an instant.

If you had the market internals going: it’d be a cinch to fade the moves. But the data stops at the close. I wonder if there’s a reason for this…

Starbucks a nice beat too. Up +5% right now. Also in an instant!!!

[dpaterso]

Morning.

Well speaking of Turtle Soup and Turtle Soup Plus One (to which I will from now on refer to as TS and TSP1):

Looks like I’ll get a reprieve and be able to enter late. Matter of fact: place a limit sell on the NASDAQ which was executed overnight so I’m now short the NASDAQ.

I don’t think much further explanation of the trading systems is necessary i.e. they’re pretty much self explanatory. There are only two things I do different from the book as detailed below.

A hard stop is not placed above the high of the signal bar. I will close the position manually ONLY IF price CLOSES above the high of the signal bar.

If the position turns to profit I will trail a mental stop on the way down using the highest high of the two previous bars and furthermore the position is only closed if price CLOSES above this mental stop at any time.

That’s about it. Position size is as always calculated using risk based position sizing (as not hard stops are used).

Only caveat (for me) is the amount of margin that will be hogged by these trades. I shall have to see if it’s worth the effort for me to be honest. This being said: as I’ve noted this day trading is seriously taking it out of me. So one could argue that these are more laid back trades i.e. on those days where I’m just not in the zone for day trading then these could be ticking along I guess.

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NASDAQ Daily Price Channels

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S&P 500 Price Channels

[dpaterso]

Whoo boy. Today is another one of those infuriating days. Was some little bit of action at the open and that was that. The average daily range for the ticks is between +400 to +600 or -400 to -600. Other than at the open they’ve not moved outside of +250 to -250. That is nothing other than noise. Driving me insane. So much so I just opened a Stella (something I rarely do these days). Where is a good tanker seizure or missile launch or Tweet when you need one!!! LOL!!! Truth be told though: this is the usual Friday behavior. I’ve noticed this and particularly since having TradeStation. Matter of fact: I’ve seen it said (written) in more than one book or article or publication to not even bother trading on Fridays (and I seem to remember the same being said of Mondays although this I’m not sure I agree with). But you know me: like the last dude at the bar trying to pull the barmaid!!! LOL!!!

[dpaterso]

Well. That’s the week over. Down -642 on the day. Up +1 777 on the week.

I’m sure noticing a pattern here though. I’m wiling to be that if I go through this thread I’m going to find that on Friday’s I always close down on the day. This with trading intraday. The TBPS hit its TPs very late in the day but I never took any TBPS trades yesterday so too bad for me. But definitely a pattern here.

The TS short trade on the NASDAQ still valid and open. And I just shorted the S&P 500 as it has just not managed to close above the signal bar. If nothing else: this means that I’m in at a fantastic price. Still cannot help but get the feeling that as great as the TS and TSP1 systems are: they’re just going to hog margin that could be better utilized intraday. But I shall see.

Anyways. That’s it for now. APPARENTLY my supa-dupa high speed line will get sorted tomorrow (Saturday if you can believe that) (and this after having to throw my toys out of the cot because it’s taken almost an entire week just for somebody to patch a cable or some shit). Then I shall experiment with live streaming of this stuff.

So I guess it’s over and out for tonight and for the week (on this thread anyway).

■■■■. I don’t believe it. The Futures tanked at the close. Would actually have broken even today as opposed to taking a loss today!!! God damnit!!! Matter of fact: they’ve tanked so bad in the last fifteen minutes today would have ended up in a small profit!!!

Oh well. All good.

[dpaterso]

Well. In SPITE of my line STILL not having been installed (amazing)…

I set up a live stream yesterday to test (YouTube). I must say that I’m quite amazed at just how easy and streamlined the process is. Must have taken all of five minutes do set up and start live streaming my platform and TradeStation. Impressive. As a test: live streamed from a PC and then watched on my iPad. Unfortunately there was about a seven second lag. But this is because the upload speed that I get on my current Internet connection is very rarely above 1Mbps (don’t laugh) (at least I THINK this is the problem anyway). But I guess I shall find out IF this line EVER gets installed (it’s SUPPOSED to be 100Mbps both ways and unthrottled and unshaped) (although here it’s always pot luck i.e. all in the fine print!!!).

Exactly of how much interest this will be to anyone I know not. Truth be told: most of my trading day is spent just sitting around, hand on mouse, alternating between about four different market internals, and once in a position just sitting back and waiting for it to go where it’s going to go really. Hardly riveting stuff if the truth be told. Only time it gets exciting is when the markets are on the move and you see things take off like a rocket. But that only happens about once or twice on any given day and then in short spurts. Most of the rest of the day the markets pretty much meander in tight ranges (apparently the “ebb and flow” of the markets is the term). Anyway. I shall do it for the fun of it I guess. And just because I CAN!!! LOL!!! Then again: I’d like to think it could be of SOME benefit to somebody. Big difference between watching little 'ol me make some dough as opposed to some elite trader somewhere else in the universe that you’ve only heard of and have maybe read their books or something like that.

[dpaterso]

Morning whoever.

As I suspected would be the case (as per my post about the TS and TSP1 trades): I closed them this morning at BE (one offset the other almost to the cent). Reason: just not worth it for me to be tying up that amount of margin of trades that may be open for days on end. Let me clearly state though: they are good trading systems and profitable and are ideally suited to those that are unable to trade intraday (as is Memory of Price and Connors’ TPS which is detailed on my other thread). But I make more money in a day than those trading systems will generate in two or three days so for me there’s no point at this particular stage.

So moving on:

I am long the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ Futures as per the TBPS. Only updated the spreadsheets this morning (so did not go long last night) and as luck would have it: price had retraced after the open last night so I was able to open the trades at better prices is all.

So those are the open trades at the moment and based on the TBPS. The REAL trading starts when the NYSE opens later.

Cheers until then…

[dpaterso]

Out yesterday for +297. Nothing to write home about. But better than a kick in the you-know-what. All adds up. Only traded for about two hours or so and then took a short on the Dow into the close that lasted about two minutes. Just wasn’t in the mood really so missed the open (usually the first and best trade tick trade of the day). Must admit and this in spite of all going perfectly here: battling to get with the program for some reason. Mojo on the wane at the moment.

High speed line installed and working (FUCKING FINALLY and after much carrying on like an insane person to the service providers responsible). Must admit: it’s real nice. No more lags during a market spurt. Have not tried live streaming with it yet. Who knows: maybe set it up for this afternoon’s session if I’m in the mood. If I do: would be appreciated if somebody is prepared to help me test (I’m one of those people that if the audio and video quality isn’t top notch then there’s no point in doing it) (I have many years of experience when it comes to audio and video just by the way and have always prided myself on quality i.e. do it right or don’t bother).

Oh well. Let’s see what the day brings shall we.

[blessed_trader]

Hi, i have really enjoyed your thread. I am also from South Africa and had a good laugh about your fibre installation.

[terpsfan]

Dale,
Just stumbled upon this thread while searching the web for Wilders TBPS… Did you ever get the TBPS programmed into Tradestation? I’ve found a guy who has done this (and all his systems) for $250. Are you still around?