Will Aussie Post a Sustained Bounce off of Support?


- The AUDCAD long-term rally has been stopped short at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci of 0.8118-0.9851, but a subsequent bounce off of solid support at its 100-day SMA leaves overall bullish momentum intact and bolsters the case for a retest of said resistance level. A break above eyes a re-test of 5-year highs at 0.9851 through the coming weeks. A negation of this scenario comes on a break below 0.9200. The daily chart shows much of the same story, with a rally off of trendline support critical to future gains.


AUDJPY [/B]- Last week we said, “The AUDJPY may be in the early stages of weakness but a break below trendline support drawn off of the 3/14 and 3/28 lows is required before we can confidently get bearish against the 4/17 high of 100.02.” The daily chart shows that the pair made a failed attempted at the figure but was unable to close below, with today’s rally leaving momentum to the upside intact through the short term. A break of a double-bottom at 97.50 definitively breaks the bullish scenario, while further moves to the upside eye a downward sloping trendline at 99.25 and the 3/17 high at 100.02.

AUDNZD - The AUDNZD has traded down to monthly lows on last week’s break below a short-term uptrend, but signs of reversal may limit continuation through the coming days. The pair is caught in a descending triangle, but today’s bounce off of 1.1163 makes a test of resistance at the falling trendline likely. RSI has come below 40 and turned higher, with price now aiming for the 1.1300 mark. Still, a more medium-term bearish bias is warranted, as a failure at the aforementioned trendline leaves a retest of recent support in the cards. A break below opens a further downward move to 1.1055.

CCI(20) - 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
> 100 - extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) - 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 - bullish
50 > - bearish
> 70 - overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD - MACD[1])
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish