When do you think the coronavirus vaccine will be ready and dollar rise after that
There are 32 vaccine candidates in clinical trials across the world. We might get a vaccine by the end of this year. I think that dollar will become stronger once the vaccine is ready
Will the dollar rise in relation to what?
If you look at the speculative positions in the COT there is a heavy bias in the EURO on the long side - these extremes often reverse so will at some point likely see a strong move down in the EUR/USD
In terms or gold we are in a long term bull market so gold could outperform the dollar
Note we have the largest speculative short position in the 30 yr T bond in history.
When this reverses there is going to be a lot of dollar buying of treasuries.
Finally if the stock market does fall apart it will be after the election, or early next yr.
This will see a rush into dollars as a temporary safe haven.
So in answer to your question, yes it will rise, but as to when I am totally clueless!!
Hopefully this virus problem would end soon
Let’s hope so man! The world has suffered enough
The situation is likely to be quite nuanced and price volatility will be heavily driven by news stories, some of which will be contradictory.
We can expect several phases to this -
- massive risk-on market response when there is the first serious scientific announcement of a viable vaccine.
- powerful profit-taking when it is accepted that the vaccine is unlikely to be 100% effective or quickly available
- market confusion as some health organisations and national governments ban the use or importation of the vaccine
- massive buying of small biotech firms which seem to have a lead on vaccine design and development and which might be take-over targets by the majors with the production capacity
- rapid dumping of some pharma shares when M&A activity stalls
- second phase of risk-on activity as a competing vaccine is announced
- risk-off activity when scientists declare one or other vaccine has an effective period of only 6 months
- market confusion when highly infectious or aggressive mutant strain of coivid-19 is widely found
The thing that will NOT happen is 1) vaccine announcement Sunday night, 2) massive market buying for the next 12 months from Monday am, giving a free ride for investors and trend-traders.
So what you are saying is the dollar will rise unless it falls
the worlds greatest stalker
sorry champ, can’t help myself, dazzle with brilliance or baffle with …
PS and don’t bother cobber, you’ll see how I roll by by the end of the week
When is anyone’s guess. I think we will see an impact on price from election fallout before we see one form vaccine release.
Remember that you did suggest that we limit our interactions on the forum and I immediately agreed. Maybe you regret your initial suggestion? Either way, I thought it was a brilliant idea and I intend to stick to it as much as possible.
I don’t actually think a virus cure will mean the dollar rallies - I expect the opposite.
The dollar is more likely to rise if there is no cure - and we end up going into a depression (if we aren’t already in one)
The dollar is the least ugly in the reverse beauty contest and will act as a safe haven (laughable as that sounds).
Although I am holding out that the GBP starts to do well once it’s finally free of the EU shackles.
I think there will be renewed optimism in the UK with it’s new found status as Singapore on the Thames - I can only hope that is what happens anyway
I do think a Biden win will be less positive for the dollar than a trump win.
I think a Biden win will shock the dollar a bit but it’s already struggling so not sure there will be too much more impact. Really hard to say. Has there been an election previously where so much else was happening in the world?
I think that US elections will bring a significant change in various instruments. Further action can be seen after we obtain virus cure
I am betting on GBP because I feel it will perform better when it is free from the shadow of EU
The US dollar is very volatile, the key influencers on the US Dollar would be US economy, imports and exports, and most importantly the two main keys are the COVID-19 vaccine and the US elections. When it comes to projecting the USD’s post-election value, Most major banks are projecting the USD to finish 2020 on a stronger note.
Vaccine most probably will have a positive effect on the USD, especially with the US elections being around the corner. But if Joe Biden wins the elections, it may have a negative impact on the dollar.
What about the vaccine’s effect on gold?
Another if the dollar doesn’t rise it will fall statement.
The announcement of an effective COVID vaccine will have a positive effect on the USD initially, but unfortunately that will likely be short lived. Unlike 1980 when smallpox was officially eradicated, we now live in an age where half the population will refuse the vaccination anyways, creating chaos. Any type of government enforcement would most certainly start a civil war.
I believe the USD will recover eventually, but there will not be one specific catalyst, it will be a gradual climb, otherwise, as @tommor is suggesting, we would all get rich from it.
We are going into an insolvency crisis likely next year, people will be crying out for dollars and the safety of US Treasury bonds.
Might even start right after the election. I don’t think finding a vaccine will make the slightest bit of difference to the dollar. But it might help restaurant, airline and consumer good stocks