Would love it if someone could critique/evaluate my TA skills and money management

Hello,
If you can’t tell, I’m quite new to forex trading. I’m liking it a lot so far. Been using my demo account a lot. I first played around with just trying to make pips so I kept most of my lot sizes 0.1. I think I’m getting a better idea of using technical analysis so far so I thought it might be time to start thinking about money management. Since I’ve been doing a lot of this on my own, I would really appreciate it if someone who’s been at this for a while could step in and let me know how I’m doing so far just so I have an idea of where I’m at… it’s hard to evaluate myself without any outsider’s perspective.

I’ve been watching the USDJPY and noticed this interesting trend pictured below. It looks like it’s sloping down at about a 45 degree angle. It’s getting some resistance before heading down but the general direction looks to be like it’s heading down. I think it may hit below 109.890 before going back up and then going back down again at maybe just below 110.225. It’s hard to tell when this is going to end… maybe at time 18:00 after it’s completed the full 45 degree triangle… I don’t know which direction it might go. Right now it does look like it’s a strong bearish trend. BTW, I usually use candlesticks… I turned this into a line graph because it made the slope easier to see.

That’s my stab at TA. Now onto money management. My current demo account size is $10,500… if I only risk 1-5% per trade, that would be $120-$520 risk. With a standard lot, since it’s $10/pip, that would be a 12-52 pip risk… a mini lot would be 120-520 pip risk and a micro lot is 1200-5200 pip risk… does that sound right?

As for my system, I pretty much look at the charts and if I see a strong bearish or bullish trend, I will go with the trend. I like to start with the 4 hour chart to see the general direction, the 1 hour to get an entry and the daily chart for confirmation. I don’t really use indicators but sometimes I use the RSI to see if a zone is overbought or oversold. I don’t like to trade when it’s ranging because I feel like that would be better for scalpers with shorter time frames and my skills aren’t up there yet.

For my stop loss, I will place it at the last support or resistance zone. If I was right about the direction and the trade is going my way, I will move the stop loss either above or below my entry to make sure I get some pips… ie: if my trade is bullish, I entered the trade at 110.050, had my stop loss at 109.900 but now the market is at 110.200, I will move the stop loss to somewhere like 110.100 so if I get stopped out, I will get some profits… I used to use a take profit but I have taken profit only to miss out on pips when the market continues going my way… so I prefer using either a trailing stop or moving my stop loss.

Thanks so much if you actually read all of that… I really appreciate any thoughts on what I’ve been doing.

your system sounds like the average mainstream knowledge, so it’s a fine start.

Just some other questions you might want to ask yourself.

What kind of patterns or setups are you looking for that will get you in a trade?
-does the pattern have to fully form before you get in the trade? why or why not?
-what session are you trading?, why?
-where will you place your target for a particular setup?
-what are the different variables of the trade that will tell you this trade is better then that trade considering your edges?
-how many odds do you need to stack in your favor before taking the trade?
-are you writing a daily journal about how you’re trading, mentality, mood, plan, execution, record, evaluation, how will you improve?

-if you’re in a trade, what does the pattern have to look like when you’re wrong, before you scratch or exit the trade? What does it have to look like to add to the position or move your stop?

They say technical analysis is not trying to predict what’s going to happen but rather reacting to what is happening and adapting in the moment. So how will you react to what you see and why? and is it inline with your plan and goals.

These answers will evolve over time so you don’t need to answer them here. I’m just throwing them out there for you to think about while you develop as a trader.

I’ve added a playbook template which helps fine tune how you trade and how to best identify your A+ trades from your lesser trades. and added some of my own for some forex examples.

Good luck on your journey.

New Playbook PPT Template.pptx (197.3 KB)
HTF Demand with W.pdf (720.3 KB)
Trend with W Demand 1.pdf (640.8 KB)
AccumulationDistribution.pptx (1.0 MB)
M formation UJ.pdf (827.3 KB)