Feeling: All good but… The OP-SL Range as per Rule book is too tight, i.e. $1.12. Either it indicates strong volatility is coming or practically no volatility is coming. Either way, from Risk Management POV, it’s not safe to trade such tight range. As per Rulebook, I stayed away from this trade.
Results: Price pulled back after OP on Candle 08:00 and touching what supposed to be my SL at $1327.84 immediately on Candle 09:00 (spread considered). While Upper Chandelier were still intact, Price then moved to the South and touching TP on Candle 17:00. But closed below the Level on the next Candle. There, it indicated strong sign of further down move. So, if I was in the trade, as per Rulebook, I would trail stop by putting SL at TP, leave it to sleep, and wake up to close the trade just before American Session closed.
Learning: 1. In such tight OP-SL Range, I am considering to widen the SL to the High/Low of where the 1st Upper/Lower Chandelier occurred.
2. For instance, this day’s OP happened in Candle 08:00. Meanwhile, Upper Chandelier started on Candle 05:00. Hence, the initial SL for this Trade supposed to be at the High + spread of Candle 05:00.
3. Looking at the Price Actions after OP, the Price never touched that level (spread considered). So, the candidate Policy makes sense and proven in this instance at least to be feasible.
4. Need more samples of course to test the hypothesis, and to put it as a Rule in the Rulebook.
Feeling: Happy with my TP Tactic. The setup was all good; so I took the trade. The Price Actions afterward were also smooth. The 3rd TBuC touched TP Level, but not closed above it; showed weak strength to push up further. I closed the Trade then and there. Price reversed strongly immediately after till end of day. My TC Tactic on how to do TP really saved my trade this day. Feeling grateful.
Results: After OP on Candle 09:00, Price move up steadily touching TP. Trade was closed soon after Candle 13:00’s close. Then, Price promptly moved downward strongly beyond SL until end of day.
Feeling: Proud of myself to stick with the Plan. This day’s Trade was an early-bloom Breakout. It happened an hour before my Signal Period started. As per Rulebook, I opened the Trade on the start of the period on Candle 08.00. Price didn’t touched OP until hours later. Rulebook dictates to leave the untriggered order be until end of day. So I did. Hell of a ride emotionally, with a happy ending … eventually.
Results: Since it was an early-bloom setup, the SL was not on Candle 08:00’s Open + Spread but on Candle where the Breakout happened; Candle 07:00. TP Level also referred to this Candle’s ATR Lower Channel. The OP almost got triggered on Candle 12:00 (spread considered), and finally did on Candle 17:00. Oddly enough, the TP was hit on that same Candle. The TP level was at the lower half of the Whole Candle with its upper Tail was longer than its Body. The candle forming was also in the context of pulling back from an Upper Fractal Level started since Candle 12:00. This indicated a strong South push was still to come. As per Rulebook, I trailed stop it by putting SL at TP, left it to sleep, and woke up to close the trade just before American Session closed with a stunning 5.5 rrr win.
Learning: 1. PATIENCE is the most important virtue to hold on to while Trading. And it pays … quite handsomely.
Feeling: Not surprised and feeling grateful. This day, Price was at the strong support area. So, it’s no surprise that the valid Sell signal of my strategy lead to minimal success. In support area, Price tends to pullback up strongly. But, that didn’t happen. Hence, I’m still grateful for that little win.
Results: After Sell-signal Candle 10:00, Price touched OP then it practically went sideway. I closed the Trade few minutes before Price closed the day at near Anchor Level. In between, SL wasn’t licked. Hence, some small pips were obtained from this trade.
Learning: 1. Reminding myself that the strategy’s success rate is measured by long-term success. Happens in all winning strategies. So, I’m not sweating this individual trade.
Feeling: More confidence with the criteria. This trade was similar with the Feb 26th one. Both trades had what I called Escalation pattern between the Breakout Candle and the previous 2 Candles before it. Such pattern is an exhaustive move. So joining the Trade at its last dying breaths would be a lost cause. And, lo and behold, I saved my equity from the volatile Market due to this screening as we can see in the chart.
Results: After OP on Candle 09:00, Buy Traders immediately showed resistance. It was strong enough that the designated SL was crossed at Candle 15:00. Six Hours later, Buyers fully dominated the market and pushed and closed the Price higher than the Day’s start level. On D1 timeframe, we can see Price is collecting momentum to go higher from support zone.
Learning: 1. Reminding myself again that ‘To stay off the market’ is also a Trading Position.
2. Repetitive Price Patterns can happen in all timeframes. It’s our job to find and take advantages of them in order to improve the Success Probability of our trades.
Feeling: Getting used to it. Escalation pattern happened again this day, but with a few twists. Since a spade is still a spade, I decided not to open a trade because of this. And immediately after, the Price Action proved it was again probabilistically the right thing to do.
Results: Discussing the setup formation first, it was an early-bloom Breakout where Candle 07:00 closed above a Fractal Level created since Candle 22:00 of previous day. So, I needed to wait for the 8th Candle. Though turned Bullish and brokeout above 3 more Fractal Levels, this Candle moved up too fast, too soon. As a result, Candles 06:00 to 08:00 created an Escalation pattern again like in the previous day. On the next Candle, a sign of Pullback already appeared. The designated SL got crossed on the next candle after that. And finally, Price closed negative for the day.
Learning: 1. I started to become a big believer to this Escalation pattern, at least for this pair.
Feeling: Well, what do you know?! If you have been following my posts this week, you know we have seen the Escalation pattern for 3 days in a row now. All three of them consistently followed up by a Pullback and then by choppy candle movements till end of day. I got this insidious idea of capitalizing the pattern into a trading setup, but decided not to. This is just a phase. Inspired by Bruce Lee’s wisdom, I need to master my current setups at least 10,000 times before even thinking to master another.
Results: Early-bloom Breakout happened on Candle 07:00 and so did the Escalation pattern which started since Candle 05:00. So, I wasn’t even bothered to open my computer then. But I got an email alert I set up previously that said a nearest Lower Fractal Level had been crossed on Candle 10:00. I said to myself, “Well I guess a pattern cannot be a hundred percent reliable.” Then, I got another alert that says my designated SL got hit too, by the same Candle! I was tempted to enter the market looking at such a strong Pullback, but too tired after I did a little project few hours before, so decided to let it go. It was the right thing to do as market just got very choppy since then, and even closed below this day’s opening price.
Learning: 1. Market would entice you almost every time with its endless variations of tricks. It’s what I’ve been struggling with my strategy development since the beginning of my career.
2. As long as we stick with our guns and rely on the success probability of our strategies and risk management long-term wise, we’ll do great eventually.
Feeling: Fascinated. Various combinations of setups happened in every trade this week; I learned something new every day. This day we saw an early-bloom Breakout again on Candle 07:00 and an Escalation pattern too between Candle 05:00 to 07:00. Learning from previous days and following my Rulebook, I decided to stay on the bench again with this setup. Reviewing on the next day, I see Candle 08:00 made its own breakout. And from the Candle’s PoV, there was no Escalation pattern between Candle 06:00 to 08:00. So, if we see the Setup that way, Candle 08:00 was a potential Buy Signal. And combining it with the current Criteria, it ought to be a valid Buy Signal. And—in hindsight—we see Price did go up considerably after.
Results: Assuming I traded Candle 08:00’s Buy Signal, OP would definitely be triggered. But, no less than 5 hours later Price was still ranging before strong North Push happened in Candle 15:00. By end of this Candle which was also the 2nd TBuC, it closed above TP at its upper half. Rulebook dictated to stay on the Trade. Even after Candle 16:00 closed and appeared as a pullback Bearish Candle, the usual Trailing Stop still was to be maintained. Only after a new upper Fractal was confirmed on Candle 18:00, I then would close the Trade as per Rulebook at around 1.75 rrr. Later on, Price finally closed the day near the Level where Candle 18:00 closed.
Learning: 1. Consecutive Setups seem to be independent from each other. This trade thought me that. When an early-bloom Setup is invalidated by one or more of its Criteria, it doesn’t mean the on-time Setup that succeeds it will also be automatically invalid.
2. Seeing the 1.75 rrr result, it also seems worth to trade in long term should the slight Choppiness of this Trade is also a typical Price Movement for this kind of Setups Combination.
However, as I stated in the 1st post about things I won’t do, what you asked for is in that short list. With this thread, I only wish to record and improve my trading plan; a kind of a forward test. I’m not looking for validation in any way. I leave other utilizations of this thread to Viewers’ discretions. Hope you understand my PoV.
Thank you for your regular updates. Just out of curiosity I would like to ask you if you involve some fundamentals in your trading signals, or you are just trading based on strict technical analysis? Thank you
Hi @Baldursufate , I thank you for your question as well. I use technical analysis only in this strategy. What I also notice is with this strategy I’m able to see the synchronicity between lower and higher timeframes. For example, between trade dates 05 to 07 March,we got invalid Sell Signals in our H1 Timeframe. If we look at H4 and D1 time, we see price was rejecting to go lower the existing support area, and building momentum to go up.
If such synchronicity happens continuously, that means we only have to see whether our H1 Strategy gives valid or invalid signal, without the need to look at higher time frames. So far, it’s just a hypothesis though.
Feeling: Hoping this is just a rare incidence. This day is the 1st day of the year when daylight saving time being replaced back to the normal hours. So, schedules will be 1-hour sooner again. Most of Price movements were anticipated including the late-triggered OP on Candle 12:00, until what happened at Candle 16:00. Price already below 1.0 rrr when Candle 14:00 closed. Typically, it would be safe to trail stop using the upper Chandelier. But on Candle 16:00, Price crossed my SL at Candle 15:00’s Chandelier level, before proceeding to go lower and hit TP. I recalled using rrr-based trailing-stop method that I created for my H4 Strategy. I’m considering to replace the Chandelier method to that rrr-based one should the frequency of such price dynamics become too frequent in near future.
Results: The on-time Reversal Setup on Candle 08:00 and 09:00 was not typical, but still within the predetermined definition in Rulebook. Late trigger of OP happened 3 Candles later. Candle 14:00 closed below 1.0 rrr, so, it was time to use Chandelier trailing stop. Unfortunately, Price hit it on Candle 16:00 before it goes further down to hit TP. So, my win was no more than 0.6 rrr in this Trade. As I recall, in the history of my back and forward tests of the strategy, this is the first time Price hit Trailing Stop first. Moving on, assuming I was still on the Trade, though TP was within upper half part of the Candle, the Candle itself formed a rejection price action against a Fractal Level; the Candle’s Lower Tail is much longer than its upper one. Hence, I then would close the Trade at its Close. Price later tested the Fractal Level again before bouncing and closed the day above TP.
Learning: 1. May be I’m just shocked seeing for first time the Trailing Stop got hit first. Hopefully, this will be a rare occasion. But if not, I still have the rrr-based method as a backup.
Feeling: Worried, then relieved. There was a valid early-bloom Breakout on Candle 04:00. Typically, I would trade it at the Candle 08:00’s Close. But then I also noticed that Candle 08:00 was an on-time Breakout Candle, but with one problem: its Anchor-SL range was only $0.87; so, not a valid signal. Which one did I have to refer to? The early-bloom one of course! However, even if that Candle 08:00 was a valid one, I would still trade the earlier. Why? I would prioritize on Risk Management. It has more room for Price to wiggle. Hence, it’ll avoid my Trade getting stopped out while in red.
Results: The SL was at Candle 04:00’s Open, and the Anchor was at Candle 08:00’s High + Spread. OP was triggered not long after. But Price pulled back down and even created an upper Chandelier. Thankfully, Price started to climb higher though struggling. Candle almost touched TP at Candle 15:00, and started to pull back down again. Getting a little worried that Price hadn’t pushed through above 0.5 rrr till this late hour. Decided to sleep anyway, and said to myself, “Que sera sera.” while hoping I could gain a few pips before end of day. Woke up near the end of Candle 23:00, and saw price closed above TP on Candle 21:00. I immediately closed the Trade with a decent 1.0 rrr win.
Learning: 1. This Trade had the opposite composition than the March 8th Trade in which its early bloom was the invalid one. Either way, the call to action for both is to trade with the valid one.
2. This Trade’s Price Progression was mentally tiring and with less than expected end result. Hopefully, it’s not a typical Price Action for such Setups Combination.
Feeling: Hmmm… This Trade was the 2nd time this week I saw the Trail Stop got hit by Price before moving up above TP. But now, the Trade’s Close was at about the level that was mandated by the Rulebook. So, back to my March 11th Question, do I need to replace the Chandelier Stop with the rrr-based Stop? Yes. The Chandelier is good when price movement is sailing up nicely, which what happened in the last two months or so. However, a good trailing stop method must also provide enough room for when the volatility is rather erratic like what happened recently. The rrr-based method is able to provide that. It will be applied starting next week.
Results: Chandelier trailing stop was still used in this trade. The Trade started with an early-bloom Breakout on Candle 03:00. Candle 08:00 formed as a bearish candle, so I waited. Next Candle formed as a bullish one; that was my cue to enter the trade. In less than an hour OP was triggered, followed up by a strong North Push before got halted below 1.0 rrr area. The Chandelier Stop was triggered on Candle 15:00, resulting in I secured another 0.5 rrr win. After ranging for 5 hours, it spiked up crossing above TP on Candle 21:00. And finally closed the day near 1.0 rrr level.
Learning: 1. It seems early-bloom Breakouts tend to be followed up by erratic Price Dynamics.
2. Trailing Stop management hence need to anticipate it. I’m preparing to replace the Chandelier method with the rrr-based one for that purpose.
Feeling: Hesitated at first. We’ve seen plenty of breakouts in recent trades. This one’s caught me by surprise. Firstly, there were 2 Breakouts this day; Candle 05:00 and 07:00. Rulebook instructed to see only the last one. So I did. But, because Candle 07:00 was an early-bloom one, I had to wait. Candle 08:00 turned to an unexpectedly Bullish Candle. Then, Candle 09:00 formed a bearish again. What supposed to be my Sell Signal stunted me for a while. Its position is practically on the same level as Candle 07:00. I’ve never seen this before. But I thought, this thing was still workable. I checked other criteria; they all gave go signs. So, I forced myself to stop my habitual thinking about what to expect in this kind of setup, and actually opened the trade.
Results: The Anchor-SL arrangement of this unconventional setup still used the usual policy for the early-bloom breakout. SL was at Candle 07:00’s Open + spread. Anchor was at Candle 09:00’s Low. OP got triggered on the next Candle. And another surprise occurred. Price hit TP on Candle 12:00, the 2nd TBeC in this Trade. That meant more downward push could still come. I’ve decided to use the rrr-based method in this trade. Candle 12:00 was in 2.5 – 3.0 rrr area, so I waited another candle to decide where to put my trail stop. Turned out it closed in 2.0 – 2.5 rrr area, so I moved the SL to 1.0 rrr level. Price move down again in next candle to 3.0 – 3.5 rrr area; a first entry to a new area that also formed as the 3rd TBeC; this meant I had to wait for another candle to determine a new SL. Until Candle 16:00 formed as the 4th TBeC and a rejection Candle against a Lower Fractal Level. It was time for me to close my trade there.
Learning: 1. It’s right what they say. No trade is ever the same. Day Traders need to be fast interpreters and decision makers facing various nuances of their opportunity setups. If it’s not our natural talent to be so, hopefully lots of practices would make us so.
Feeling: Oh, well… Occasionally, we see OPs don’t get triggered; expected risk of doing pending order. This was one of those days. However, as far as the Price dynamics go, they have been anticipated in the Rulebook; especially with the new rrr-based trailing stop. The Results below assume my OP was triggered to describe the play by play of the Trade.
Results: This early-bloom Breakout started on Candle 05:00. Candle 08:00 formed the first bullish Candle in the signal period, which was my signal to open Trade. Next, Price moved strongly up to 0.5 – 1.0 rrr area creating 2 TBuCs already, but it got halted around TP zone. The next Candle touched and pulled back down. Since it’s only 2 TBuCs showed up, I won’t close the Trade just yet. On the other hand, it was also time to move SL to Level 50.0 since two Candles were already staying in 0.5 – 1.0 rrr area. Price moved around that zone since then. Candle 14:00 touched TP again, but closed below it; creating the 3rd TBuC. I would’ve closed the Trade here immediately after the Candle closed. Later on, Price moved down and up and down again. before started residing gradually until end of day, and closed slightly above 0.5 rrr level.
Learning: 1. Reminder to myself that OP not triggered is part of the game. Specifically, part of the risk of pending order policy.
2. This was rather a smooth-sailing Trade. Hence, the new rrr-based Trailing Stop wasn’t much needed, unlike in previous day’s Trade. But that’s the point. Better be flexible than less profits, right?
3. The TP policy also worked well in this trade. I have some ideas to combine it with the rrr-based trailing stop. But decided not to undergo it. It’ll just complicate things unnecessarily.
Feeling: Surprised. This was the 1st Loss at SL Level in this journal. As per current Criteria, all checkpoints were checked. Looking at Price Dynamics, the only possible new criteria to add to is that the lower long-legged Doji in Candle 04:00 shouldn’t be there to make this early-bloom, bearish Breakout a valid Sell Trade. There were other forms of reversal Candles before, such as Candle 06:00 in last Friday’s Trade. But, I’ve never seen them as early indicators for full-throttled Reversal like this day’s trade has shown.
Results: An early-bloom, downward Breakout happened on Candle 02:00. Candle 08:00 formed a solid bearish Candle; my signal to open a Sell trade. One Candle later, Price immediately hit the SL Level. As mentioned above, the bullish long-legged Doji on Candle 04:00 should’ve invalidated this Trade. The Reversal on Candle 09:00 created another Breakout opportunity—to buy this time—but its Anchor-SL was too wide. The width indicated the follow-up bullish Move might not be strong enough to trade. And, it was in fact the case as later on Price only wobbling around its Anchor – 0.5 rrr area, before ending the day between OP and Anchor.
Learning: 1. Both wins and losses should be used to our advantages as sources of learning the Market Behaviors, and improving the Trading Plan.
2. Will be adding the long-legged Doji screening for future early-bloom, breakout Trades.
Feeling: Grateful. Two early-bloom breakouts, but the last one invalidated itself so I decided not to trade it. Price went zigzag after. So, it was the right decision not to trade it.
Results: Early-bloom bullish Breakouts occurred on Candle 03:00 and 05:00; so, I’d looked only on the last one. Entering signal period, Candle 08:00 turned very bearish. I was hoping it would reverse back in the next Candle. But that didn’t happen. It and the next one even closed below the designated SL Level. Reversal finally happened on Candle 11:00—still in signal period. But the setup looked unworkable with the current policy. The designated SL was practically at the same level as the designated Anchor. So, this one is not tradable by the typical setup of an early-bloom Breakout. Price did move up quite steadily after, but halted by resistance around $1311 area. It got pulled back down strongly on Candle 17:00, and gradually residing after that and closed still in net bullish at end of the day. Looking behind few days before, there was a resistance zone around Anchor – 1.5 rrr area. So, it’s to be expected seeing rather funny Move like this.
Learning: 1. The Criteria has saved me from taking a bad trade this day. Psychologically, that helps in boosting my confidence in the Rulebook.
2. The Congruency between what the Rulebook advises based on H1 Price Dynamics versus higher time’s dynamics strengthens my hypothesis once again that we don’t need to look for higher timeframe setup to make trade decision. The Trade’s own Timeframe ought to tell us that. We just need to know how to read and make action plan based on it.
Please be informed that I will no longer update this Thread due to a technical Limitation that BP platform has.
I’ve created a new thread just to address this concern. Eventually, there was a work-around that both I and Admin as well as few other high-ranking members could agree on. But my last query about names of Moderators who would be available was not answered for days, even until this post is uploaded.
The agreed work-around requires Moderators to promptly response to OP’s queries. What if a prolonged Response–or no Response at all such as that last one–happens when I need a fast follow-up in the future? Hence, this decision to discontinue my Journaling Thread … here at BP.
I have migrated the old posts to another Forum Website. I’ll continue my journaling there.
So sad that it has to end like this so soon. As mentioned, I’ve tried to find a solution. But just like trading in the market, I don’t have full control over it.
I wish you all the bests in your trading journeys. And thank you for everything.
