XAU/USD GOLD- whats your thoughts

@Treeny

That’s a very astute observation.

To be good at this business we have to trade what we see not what we think.

Having preconceived notions of how a market should move works against us. Markets are designed to fool as many participants as possible.

I learned this the hard way. Back in 2008 I was heavily leveraged on silver - I thought it would go to $50 during the housing crisis - it got to $49 something.

When I was stopped out (at a very healthy profit) I got back in again. Stopped out a second time for a loss.

Went back in thinking how wrong the markets were - then silver collapsed into the low $20s in 5 days and I held it all the way down.

It was a hard lesson - but I wasn’t alone - many gold bugs are so married to their opinions they can’t see straight.

Besides gold has had a great run I’ve had two trades since xmas netted around 8 * risk.

They will happen again - infact there is a potential move coming monday from what I can see (I said potential - I didn’t say certainty!!)

Hello John Scott, Was just wondering what are you considering the potential move if you don’t mind me asking ( you can answer me after the fact if you prefer) Also I have two demos and the candles can be in different places as in they may be in within the real body of the previous candle on one demo and not on the other but I suppose this is probably normal with alot of forex providers or would you have any recommendations
Cheers John

Yes you make a valid point about different charting platforms having different charts. I too have noticed real bodies are not nearly as clear on some as on others

I really don’t know about that. However looking at gold through the prism of my set up - that potential I talked of doesn’t look like it’s going to be hit on the long side.

But could well be on the short side.

I really don’t like to speculate (lol) too much on what a given market is going to do - I learned that the hard way - even if a short was triggered there is always the chance it would fizzle out

The only way I personally can be so aggressive in my personal trading - without indicators or trendlines - is because I get down to moving my stops quickly.

I don’t know if you have read my blog but my whole trading thesis is about using relatively tight stops and moving them asap.

I don’t mean ridiculously close just sensible.

This means I can be a short term trader but longer moves would never work.

I guess what I’m trying to say is I really have no clue what the market is going to do - I just follow a few simple rules and sometimes I get lucky.

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Thanks for the reply John, I have been looking at your blog and it is very interesting as I was always a Pa, trendine and SR kind of demo trader (for years actually with no consistency) Will be trying out a few of your ideas. I done a little bit of back testing with interesting finds but time is not on my side but I will have patience with it. Keep up your good work and thanks.
Regards John

@fishmoyne1

Thanks for the kind words. The blog is still a work in progress - will try to keep it interesting and fresh.

It took me literally years to find out the simplest things work best - the hard work of trading is to maintain the right psychology in the meantime.

As time goes on I plan to devote alot more posts to the psychological side of trading - I think newbies need to be more aware of it - not just looking for winning strategies.

I think backtesting what I’ve put up is the best first step - they work - but there will be losers too - it’s how you cope with them that separate the good from bad traders

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Friday today everyone, day to unwind and reflect. Ive had a good week trading, so i wont be trading today. But ill still be looking for future opportunities. Gold is giving us the pullback currently. Last time i looked i was selling the divergence. We got a drop but then we got an instant bullish movement again. We created a double top M formation, which was still divergence from the RSI . So this was an easy sell again. i hope you all caught this move, i caught some and ive taken profits already as i was scalping this time. But ill be looking for longs in the circled level areas. ideally the blue circle i would like most, but it depends on how strong the Gold Bull is and how far we move down. Be ready GLIYF and RM as always. have a good weekend

Thanks John, I will stop going with my gut feeling with Gold for now. Might follow Lee’s advice on this thread and see how that goes…

Gold is still oscillating around the 1700 level and on the daily chart it has formed a symmetrical triangle from where the price may head in any direction, but the trend is still bullish and we could see a visit to the 1750 zone once again.

still waiting for it to break higher into elliot wave 5

Its been a long time since ive looked at gold . It still looks to be very bullish obviously. I dont think we will see below 1700 for a long time. The world is in trouble with fiat money and Gold is the biggest physical insurance policy there is. i can see it being pushed up even further. so the best thing for us is to buy the big pullbacks. Will price pullback from here? Or will we see it make a new higher high and then pullback? If it came back down to 1700 then that would be the perfect time to buy in on this asset. Defo one to look out for. Markets back open tomorrow hope everyone has a good week

Hello
we should see reversal to impuls, from corection wave,
now good entry point.
TP to 1818

GOLD- Been a while since weve had a trade on gold . There hasnt been many places to get in on the buy that i would of liked. The bull is very strong in gold with the ongoing pandemic, what i would need to take a trade is a nice sizable pullback in price. We could do with some profit taking on current longs before another bull push, as many predictors suggest $2k in 2021. Wether that will come who knows, but my idea to buy would be a similar price action as seen before. A pull back in price to the .382 Fib level and to meet the moving averages as seen previous. This would be an ideal buying opportunity for us. Doesnt help USD being so weak of late but lets see what can come of it. New week begins have a good one everyone. GLIYF

Is Gold making a comeback? Is it something I should be investing in? It seems like it’s on the rise given the turbulent economic climate right now?

Right now I’m hearing talk of gold everywhere - along with the imminent demise of the US dollar.

Sentiment is getting far too bullish for my liking
.
Of course much depends on your timeframe - but I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a counter move from here.

Also seasonality is not the bullish for gold right now.

$ 2,000? $ 3,000? The projections are wild! :thinking:

GOLD , has defied logic, but been magnificent. Weve hitall time highs in over $2K per ounce of the gold stuff. The bull looks strong and with all the trouble in the world whats going to stop it? Not much in my opinion, i think it will keep going as its a physical entity against all the new crypto coming into money and fiat money becoming more and more manipulated and worthless. Question is when can we get in on the buy? im looking for the same type of price action as last time, ideally i would like a deep retrace here to the .618 fib level and gain some support from the moving averages. Thats when ill load up longs. You could potentially buy now but go in with even smaller positions than usual incase we do get the deeper retrace, big reward on offer the cheaper you can get in on price. Buy gold as cheap as possible is my opinion. GLIYF

Fridays chart today is gold . I think you would be a brave man to sell gold in this current bull trend we are in. So we look for opportunities to buy in on the trend. Thats what i see at the moment with the moving averages. As you can see price has held very well on the 0.382 fib level and its been ranging between that and the 0.236 level. If price holds here then the moving averages catch up in time then i will be looking for similar price action to whats marked out and give it that catapult to go onto another bull push. Im targeting previous high for a moderate R:R of 1:2. If it comes together we can always hold for more if it plays out that way. Hope everyones had a good week and enjoy your weekend GLIYF

Update on the GOLD stuff today. Bought in on the fib level 0.382 after the rejection off the moving averages. Currently we are in profits so i have locked this one to risk free with SL at entry. I believe we will see a breakout above very soon. The averages are showing us the way we are heading, they have all caught up with time now ready for the next push. E ven though we have the previous high as TP i would keep holding if we get there as its possible we could make a new high. GLIYF

Trade closed at break even so nothing lost. Looks like we might finally see some good strength from USD. We have seen price break out to the downside from this little bearish flag . I wont be fully selling until the smaller averages cross the longer term averages. But once they do then i will be ready to sell, which looks what might happen. But where will we go? Ive marked out a couple of likely zones we could see hit. Resistance zones which turned to support on the way up is a nice likely target to hit. Personally i dont think we will see gold trade under 1700 for a long time so the first target would be my prediction before another bull run. GLIYF

Thank You for this.