No problem, and I truly hope that you are! 
In other news, I am still working on my creating a Trading Plan for the Macro Method, and I am now trying to see if I can incorporate the DNA Method into it as well, to maximize profitability. I will spend the night doing the final touches and testings, and will try to post my proposed plan tomorrow.
Happy pipping to all!
It has taken me a while to do, but I have finished! I have updated the posts on the first page to incorporate Trade Plans for both the [B]DNA Method[/B] (which has been revised) as well as the [B]Macro Method[/B]. The former boasts a high Win:Loss ratio, suitable for consolidating markets, while the latter boasts a high Risk:Reward ratio, and shines in trending markets.
I realize that the Macro Method Trade Plan may be a bit ambiguous. It is still in its first revision, and some of the concepts which I talk about in it, are a bit difficult to put into words, and would be relayed much better using charts. Thus in the coming days, some posts using this method of trading, should make it much easier to understand, so please bear with me. 
I have also updated my intended goal, which is also on the first page of this thread, making them a bit more realistic. I aim to double the size of my first live account, within the time-span of one year. This requires just over 6% growth per month, which I believe I can achieve quite easily.
Happy pipping to all!
Hi xXtrizzleXx
This thread is a great addition to Tymens thread, I have found that your original plan may suit my style of trading.
It would be appreciated if you could post your original plan as I was doing some back testing and did not print off a copy?
Cheers
Turk:)
Hey there [B]turk![/B] You can arrive at my old Trade Plan, by using the [U]DNA Method[/U] which I have outlined in the second post of this thread. In order to convert it into the old plan, make the following 3 revisions:
[ul]
[li]Instead of risking 1.5% of the account balance per contract, increase this to 2% risk per contract.
[/li][li]It is not necessary to trade in the direction of the prevailing trend
[/li][li]Bollinger Band bubbles and squeezes [B]can[/B] be traded, but a 2 candle CBL [U]must[/U] be used, and the profit target is the nearest Standard Deviation 1.0 band as opposed to the Middle Bollinger Band.
[/li][/ul]
Hope this helps!
Happy pipping!
Trizzle, are you still doing well with this? I have been using your system on demo for the past 3 days. The win loss ratio is great, I am 8 for 10! Now for the bad news. The risk reward seems to be terrible. I am -300 for the same time period. It seems that even one bad trade out of 10 (which will happen in even the greatest system) destroys your profits. Are you having similar results?
I had an idea, it may not work, but may be worth a try. Have you ever watched the PA during a trade? I try not too because I drive myself crazy and everything I have ever read says not to watch your trades. But it may be worth it, or you can use Dodge v83’s stuff to back test. Anyway, here is my idea. Do you think it would work if once you enter your trade midway between BB1 and the mid BB, to set your stop loss at a 1:1 risk reward? In other words, if you would make 20 pips between entry and the mid BB, set your SL 20 pips below? I dont know how much movement the market goes once it triggers your trade on the 4 hour chart. It may work on a different TF also. Any ideas?
[B]Pete Schweaty,[/B] I have observed that the Risk:Reward ratio of this method is its main disadvantage! Even though we have a high Win:Loss ratio, the losses will wipe out a significant portion of our profits. This would be most unfortunate, and would indubitably play detrimental games with out psyche.
I warmly welcomed your suggestion and tried it out, but the market is simply too volatile for such stringent tactics! Although we would have a well defined Risk:Reward ratio, the ebb and flow of the market would ensure that we are stopped out on plenty of trades.
In order to address the drawbacks of the low Risk:Reward ratio, I have updated the DNA Trade Plan to Version 2.4. It is now almost identical to the method presented by [B]Tymen,[/B] the most salient addition being the inclusion of the opposite Outer Bollinger Band as the site of TP2, which should increase our Risk:Reward ratio significantly. Coupled with the way that I set my Stop-Losses, and the fact that I shall only be trading in the direction of the prevailing trend, I believe that the Win:Loss ratio should not suffer too much as a result. In the testings I have done, it has shown good promise, and I eagerly await the opportunity to try it next week.
So what have I been doing for the past week? I have been placing some optimizations on my Trading Plans, bringing the DNA Method to [B]Version 2.4[/B]. The Macro Method has not received any further revisions, since it has not been traded as yet.
I have also been doing some broker searching, which is always a time-consuming, confusing process. I have successfully secured a non-expiring demo with IBFX, who I also plan to go live with, since they allow flexible lot sizing, which is essential to proper Money Management.
Speaking of money management! I have recently dipped into a refresher course in Money Management, and ended up [B]successfully confusing myself[/B] with leverage, margin and optimal position sizing. However, it finally clicked after a while, and now I am fully aware of how to calculate optimal position sizing. [B]I was doing it totally incorrectly before - as I did not take into account the size of my Stop Loss![/B]
I have created Profiles with all 10 pairs, complete with all the charts I require for trading in MT4. I have also taken the time to adequately customize my charts, to the point where they are visually easy on my eyes. Finally, I have created a spreadsheet incorporating formulas to calculate optimal position sizing for my future trades, as well as the ability to track my trades, pair-by-pair, for future analysis.
This all took some time to do, but I believe it was time well-spent, and [B]I am now fully prepared to restart trading.[/B]
Happy pipping to all!
Excellent read Trizzle, your log clearly explains the why and how of your trades; something my own personal log is still lacking in (the excuse I often give myself is I can figure out the details by looking at the chart, but ask me again 2 weeks down the road and I may interpret things differently). Looks like I need to brush up on my record keeping.
Its a morale booster to see that you have been getting good results with the BB DNA method, especially when I’ve been hit by a couple of consecutive bad trades. Sometimes its frustrating to enter a trade according to the rules, only to see the price action retrace and hit your stop loss almost immediately. But having read your trading rules and log did clear up certain stuff for me. I too noticed that the BB DNA seem to work less efficiently in trending markets and that trading in the direction of the prevailing trend (of the daily chart) might have reduced my losses.
My losses so far could be attributed to the fact that my trading plan is not as stringent as yours - I do not utlize the BB1 bands, I only use a single candle for CBL and my PCI SL is set using the low of the extreme candle. One thing that is still bugging me is being able to accurately decide if a bubble/sausage has ended, on hindsight its rather easy to see, but when trading real time its infuriatingly subjective.
There are many aspects of my plan that I intend to modify with reference to yours, so a big thank you in advance and more pips to you!
@ [B]Pete Schweaty,[/B] I have come to the decision that I will revert back to my original method of taking profit at the middle Bollinger Band in both instances. as I am the type of trader who strongly believes in taking money as the market makes it available to me. My strategy must thus be complementary to my psychology if I am to execute it successfully. However, your suggestion was truly appreciated, and any more you may have are welcomed!
@ [B]TimberWolfMk2,[/B] your encouragement is truly appreciated! I hope that you are successfully able to optimize your Trading Plan, to provide yourself with an influx of pips! With regard to the stringency of the Trade Plan - it is the only way I find that I am able to make objective trading decisions, as I have read that it is better to do that, than have flexible rules, leaving the trading up to your discretion.
I have now finalized my plan, and present a few Pending Orders which I have currently placed. The first one is on the USD/CHF, which I interpreted to be in an uptrend.
Macro Method Trade 1
I am thus looking to [B]go long,[/B] using a 2-Candle CBL drawn using the candles highlighted in red. One contract will be closed at the Outer Bollinger Band, while another will remain to ride any possible trend movements.
EDIT: This Pending Order was never hit!
Macro Method Trade 2
My next trade is on GBP/USD. I have interpreted the trend as downwards, as can be seen in the chart below.
I am thus looking to [B]go short[/B] in this trade, and thus a pending order was set up using a 2 candle CBL (those highlighted in red).
EDIT: One contract was closed accidentally, since I was looking at the 4H Time Frame, where the Outer Bollinger Band was hit, as opposed to the 6H Time Frame. This contract was closed for +140 pips.
EDIT: The second contract was stopped out for -37 pips, leaving me with a final profit of +103 pips.
DNA Method Trade 1
This is a Pending Order on GBP/JPY, my favorite pair. I have interpreted the trend as down, as according to the daily chart.
I am thus looking to [B]go short[/B] on this trade. The Orthodox Method of drawing CBLs was used, and since the body of the second candle was smaller than that of the extreme candle, it was incorporated into the CBL as well. Since this CBL was close to the middle Bollinger Band, it was thus cut in half to effect a better entry.
EDIT:
The trade was completed quite quickly for some odd reason.
Overall, two contracts were closed for +52 pips each. However, I realized that since I opened a demo Micro Account, my volume figures were off by one decimal place! Must correct it! I immediately also entered two contracts, for a Macro Trade, which was being set up at that instant.
Thanks for the tip Trizzle, it made me 92 pips while I slept! Textbook setup.
What of you think of this setup on the 4HR AUD/USD?
Daily trend appears to be up, hopefully the downward retracement is over.
Now here the CBL on the 4 hour. It may need to be moved depending on what the 0500 candle does.
There is also a shorting opportunity setting up on the 4 hour USD/CAD.
Hey there [B]Pete Schweaty,[/B] I’m glad that the trade netted you some good pips! Regarding the 4H AUD/USD, the recent downwards move that happened between March and April intersected by previous upwards trend-line, and such my current outlook on the AUD/USD, is that it may be beginning a [B]downtrend.[/B]
I would thus trade in the direction of the trend, looking for shorts only. If you look at the 4H AUD/USD presently, you will see that your CBL has not even been touched, as the Price Action descends further. In the event that your CBL had been triggered, then the Price Action would have stopped the trade out - this may sometimes be avoided by considering [I]the trend as your friend.:)[/I] You may also want to cut the CBL in half, since it is so close to the middle Bollinger Band, to effect a better entry.
Now to address the USD/CAD shorting opportunity which you saw. The recent upwards move, which began on the 25th of April, previously intersected my downward trend-line, and as such my current outlook on the USD/CAD, is that it may be beginning an [B]uptrend[/B].
I would thus looking be looking to go long, and would fore-go the shorting opportunity on that trade. If you check your chart, you will find that a similar scenario to what I have highlighted above.
Happy pipping!
Macro Method Trade 3
As soon as my DNA Method Trade 1 was completed, I observed a possible Macro Trade and entered on it instantly. Currently, one contract was closed for +60 pips when the outer Bollinger Band was hit, while the next one is being left to run, and will be exited via the Fibonacci Method.
Now it is time to scout for more possible set-ups for today.
Happy pipping!
Hey Trizzle, was hoping you could explain something to me. You mentioned that in your BB DNA method, your PCI stop is placed exactly 1 candle length above/beneath the extreme candle. Does this mean for example:
[I]Extreme candle has a high of 100.50 and low of 100.30 (difference of 20 pips). If a long trade is being entered, your PCI stop would be placed at 100.10 (20 pips or 1 candle length) from the low of the extreme candle?[/I]
How has this worked for you? Have you been getting stopped out frequently?
Right now, one drawback of my trading plan is that I tend to get stopped out too early when placing my PCI stop at the high/low of the extreme candle. I’m thinking that adopting your approach of a dynamic stop when the next candle closes above or below the previous high/low might reduce my losses.
Hey [B]TimberWolfMk2,[/B]
Extreme candle has a high of 100.50 and low of 100.30 (difference of 20 pips). If a long trade is being entered, your PCI stop would be placed at 100.10 (20 pips or 1 candle length) from the low of the extreme candle?
Yes, that is exactly how I position my PCI Stop. The use of the dynamic stop in addition to the PCI Stop, [I]does[/I] decrease the frequency of being stopped out. However, one may also argue that the major drawback of using such stop placement, is that when losses are sustained, they are greater in magnitude. However, I believe that the increased Win:Loss ratio should make up for this more than satisfyingly. Also, you must be sure that this method also agrees with your psyche, as not everyone is tolerant of trades going against them to such large extents.
Another issue it has, is that it presents a ticklish area when it comes to Position Sizing. This is because you cannot predict beforehand where the candle will close above/below your [U]dynamic[/U] stop, to assign a particular pip value, and therefore money value to your position sizing calculations. Thus for Money Management purposes, I assume an ‘ideal’ stop, which is itself halfway between the PCI Stop Loss and the low/high of the extreme candle. The above may not seem clear, so perhaps an example should do justice.
Using your example of a Long Trade from above:
[I]Account Size = $5000[/I]
[I]Extreme candle’s high = 100.50[/I]
[I]Extreme candle’s low = 100.30[/I]
[I]Pip Difference = 20 pips[/I]
[I]PCI Stop Loss = 100.10 pips[/I]
[U]For money management purposes, our Stop-Loss can be taken as halfway between the PCI Stop Loss and the extreme candle low - 100.20. This is [B]30 pips[/B] from our entry.[/U]
Thus if we are risking 2% of our account, this amounts to $100.
Assuming 1 pip = $0.10 (It is preferable to work in micro-lots)
30 pips = $3.00
$100/$3.00 = 33 minilots = 0.33 lots
Hope this helps!
I have updated the post containing my Macro Method Trade 2, as I accidentally ended up closing one of the contracts! This careless error occurred since I was viewing the 4H Time Frame, in which the Outer Bollinger Band was hit, as opposed to the 6H Time Frame, where it was not quite there yet. I will have to be much more vigilant in future, to avoid such careless mistakes. :o Overall, the contract was closed for +140 pips, with the other contract being left to run, and will be exited via the Fibonacci Method. This contract is sufficient to cover my other contract’s Stop Loss of 70 pips, and so in essence is my first [B]risk-less trade.[/B]
Happy pipping!
