Year-to-date

Trading Discussion
1

Hi all

I was wondering how most traders would look at this year so far (around 5.5 months).

  1. Have these months been a fair reflection of what we can expect in forex markets in terms of profitability?

  2. By and large have we seen a lot of trending ? or ranging?

Cheers !

2

Hello Michael,

good thread.

Let us try to define the question:

  1. what is meant by ‘forex markets’? Which pairs… Euro pairs, Yen pairs, Pound pairs, US Dollar index?

  2. which time-frame? What defined a trend as opposed to a correction within a trend?

If you ask a GBP/NZD trader in the last few months they will say it was a strong (down)trend; if you ask a EUR/USD trader in the last few month they will say it was a ranging market… so it all depends on the currency pair, and personal perspective…

3

Thanks for the reply pip. I guess majors but perhaps that is a little ambiguous :slight_smile:

Do you think markets are changing much…meaning that new approaches are needed or are they practically the same meaning that basic systems should be working pretty much as they habe been over several years ?

4

One person’s changing market is another person’s unchanging market…

And no system or strategy works forever… markets, or rather, your market (the one that

each of us eventually specialises in trading) will not behave the same through time…

5

Personally,

trend-following is not dead in Forex…

Before the last 17 months, for example, Eur/Usd was in a strong bear trend;

in 2015, for example, GBP/USD was also in a strong bear trend;

in May-August 2015, GBP/NZD was in a strong bull trend;

for the last few months, all Yen pairs have experienced the beginning of a

bear trend…

…and so on…

So if you were a trend-trader in 2016 you would still find trends…

However, if you were relying on central banks to initiate trends, you may

find it frustrating… So as a fundamental trader I now find it more difficult

to trade themes, and considering that I am just starting on the long-term

journey of position trading (or trading macroeconomic themes), it is

frustrating to see trends going against what is ‘classic’ economics in

terms of what the QE/Currency Wars era had got us used to - that is,

that a central bank’s easing monetary policy would automatically lead

to the devaluation of a currency…

That is my personal view…