The Yen crosses are falling, with some making multi-year lows in the process. Weakness is likely to continue. Levels where the bearish outlook is no longer valid are cited.
It is possible that a wave 2 high is in place at 153.83 (wave 2 within a 5 wave drop from near 170). IF this is correct, then the pair will accelerate lower with 153.83 remaining intact and 133.45 would be the initial bearish target (100% extension). A push above 153.83 would indicate that the EURJPY is probably on its way to 157.
Remaining below 193.72 keeps the trend down for a test of 181.30…this is the confluence of the 61.8% of 148.19-251.23 / potential trendline support drawn off of the 1995 and 2000 lows. A rally through 193.72 would signal that a larger correction is underway that would end above 195.64.
This weekly chart shows the rally from the 2000 low as an A-B-C advance. Wave C is a diagonal, which should be fully retraced. Therefore, the bearish target is 78.88. It is unclear if the decline extends from current price or if a correction is needed before the larger decline resumes. Remaining above 93.12 keeps the larger corrective scenario favored. In this case, 97.60 should be strong resistance (38.2% Fibonacci and former resistance). The best strategy is to get bearish on a rally to this level or play a break below 93.
The CADJPY is approaching the low from March. A break below there shifts focus to a potential support line drawn off of the 1995 and 2002 lows near below 90. Momentum is down, signaling that a bearish break is likely. Price should remain below 101.87.
The long term AUDJPY target is not until 74.15. This is the June 2004 low. I have designated this as a target because the rally from there can be treated as an ending diagonal (similar to CHFJPY). Diagonals are usually rapidly retraced. Price should remain below 88.97 if the trend is still down.
The drop below 67.77 satisfies minimum expectations for the end of the decline from 97.86 (which is wave C of an expanded flat). However, the decline has more to go as C waves subdivide into 5 waves and the decline is in wave 3 right now. The trend remains bearish below 72.17. A push above there would indicate that a larger correction is underway, with 74.50 as initial resistance.
[B]Jamie Saettele writes [I]Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead[/I], Monday-Thursday (published 6-7 pm EST), [I]Daily Technicals [/I] every weekday morning (9-10 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.[/B]
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[B]Contact him at <[email protected]>[/B]