[B]Commentary -[/B] The 3 wave advance from 109.94 to 114.33 was likely wave 4 within a larger 5 wave decline that began at 118.20. We expect price to come under 109.94 in wave 5 before a corrective setback occurs. A bearish target is 107.47, which is the 161.8% extension of 114.33-110.97/112.91. This is also near the 5/11 low of 107.14.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Flat
[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “since the rally from 97.54 is either a wave 2 or a wave b, a corrective rally could continue until the 61.8% of the decline at 100.20.” the CHFJPY hit 100.25 last Wednesday and has declined nearly 300 pips since. It seems likely that the decline from 101.85 is of the A-B-C variety rather than an impulse. This is favored because the rally from 97.54 to 100.25 is a diagonal (wedge), which occur as B waves. Look for weakness to extend towards the 100% extension of 101.85-97.54/100.25 at 95.94.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Bearish, move risk to 100.25 (from 101.85), target 96.00
[B]Commentary -[/B] We wrote last week that “some additional upward action is needed before the next down leg begins. A correction has unfolded since the8/1 low at 88.58. The form of the correction is a flat and price should exceed 92.02 in wave c of the correction.” The NZDJPY reversed at 92.20 on 8/8 and price has declined nearly 600 pips since. The decline should continue until the 100% extension of 97.74-89.24/92.20 at 83.70 and possibly the 161.8% extension at 78.45. The bearish case is strong below 92.20 but price should remain below 88.92.
[B]Strategy -[/B] Remain bearish, move risk to 92.20, targets 83.70 and 78.50