Yen Crosses Continue Ascent


CADJPY – The CADJPY has continued to work higher from the low made in early March at 97.50. The pattern that is developing though is a head and shoulders top. Additionally, the rally from 97.50 consists of overlapping legs, which is corrective. A break below 97.50 is required in order to complete the head and shoulders pattern but resistance is just overhead at the confluence of the 61.8% of 106.42-97.50 / 200 day SMA at 103.00.

CHFJPY – Daily oscillators continue to improve and the pair has retraced to the 78.6% fibo of the 98.38-94.26 decline today. We said last week that “the rally from the 3/5 low at 94.27 has traced out 5 waves now, which suggests that the larger trend is up. A corrective decline is expected with support at the 3/26 low of 96.57.” The decline stretched to 95.86 but the ‘next leg up’ appears underway and focus is on 98.38. A decline below 96.53 would invalidate the bullish structure.

NZDJPY – The correction lower did occur but NZDJPY failed to fall through the 82.33 and the pair has rallied to complete 5 waves up from 77.42. We expect a period of weakness in order to correct the recent 5 wave advance before another leg higher breaks through the February high of 85.84. Support should be strong at 82.56.