CADJPY
CHFJPY
NZDJPY
Commentary – We wrote last week to expect “a new high prior to a larger reversal.” 123.71 was mentioned as an objective since that “is where wave 5 (from 115.79) would equal wave 1 (111.30-103.38).” The pair has rallied through there and is currently testing 124.00. There is little doubt that the rally is in wave 5 within the 5 wave rally from 103.38. Within wave 5 from 115.79, the rally is also in wave v. Expect a blowoff top, possibly towards the 161.8% of 120.23-123.50/121.93 at 127.21 before a reversal.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – The break above 99.96 negates the bearish structure. The pattern from the July high is similar to that of GBPJPY. The intial decline is in 3 waves (corrective) but the advance that has followed is also corrective, albeit complex (W-X-Y). The rally from 98.82 is likely to extend towards the 161.8% extension of 98.67-99.86/98.82 at 100.74. A potential resistance line is above 101.00
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – We thought that ‘the’ turn had occurred at 91.42 but the decline that unfolded was in only 3 waves. As such, the trend remains towards higher prices. Waves i and ii have already unfolded and wave iii higher should be underway towards 95.97 (161.8% extension).
Strategy – Flat