-EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, NZDJPY sport 5 wave declines
-AUDJPY breaks below channel support
-CADJPY resisted by top of channel
Euro / Japanese Yen
A 5 wave decline from 137.46 suggests with a high probability that the long term decline has resumed. A strong countertrend move is well underway. Levels to watch for a reversal are the 50% and 61.8% of the decline from 137.46; at 130.75 and 132.30.
British Pound / Japanese Yen
The GBPJPY pattern is the exact same as the EURJPY pattern. There are subtle differences, such as the fourth wave; which is in the form of a triangle for the GBPJPY. Look for a reversal near the 50% and 61.8% retracements; at 145.16 and 146.66.
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
Not surprisingly, the CHFJPY pattern is the exact same as the EURJPY. The levels to look for a top are 86.27 and 87.15.
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen
Very long term; “the advance from the all time low (57.88 in 1995) is in 3 waves (corrective). The suggestion is that the CADJPY should decline to an all-time low before a bottom is in place.” Price remains within the Elliott channel that has formed since the 2007 top. Staying below 82.94 keeps the trend pointed lower.
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen
I still can not confirm that a top is in place but the weight of evidence favors as much. Staying below 73.54 keeps the trend pointed lower. The break of the channel that has held for most of 2009 bolsters the bearish bias. The 200 day SMA is just above current price and is potential resistance.
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen
The NZDJPY pattern in April is reminiscent of the GBPJPY pattern during the same time. That is, there are 5 waves down from the high early in the Month. A sharp rebound serves to correct the 5 waves drop, and Fibonacci resistance is at 56.52 and 57.41.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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