1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY - The CADJPY has been firmly wedged between a steep month-long uptrend and a slow-moving 7-month downtrend line, but a bounce off of support is creating a challenge of significant resistance at the aforementioned downward sloping trendline. A successful close above this level confirms our bullish bias, with subsequent resistance seen at the 9/1/2006 high of 106.43. A negation of this scenario would occur on a close below 106.04, with a steep trendline lending support at the 105.00 mark.
CHFJPY - The pair has made a significant bounce at 97.73 to resume a two-month uptrend, with a new high above 98.88 increasingly likely through the short term. A break of this level may look to resume the medium-term ascent to 9-year highs at 100.85. Any shorter-term retracement must hold support at 97.73, else a decline below these levels negates the bullish case. Indeed, a drop below support eyes tests of 97.07, with a further break to build the case for a retest of a year-long uptrend at 96.00.
NZDJPY - The Kiwi has been thus far incapable at posting significant gains beyond 17-year highs of 1997, with consolidation below the high testing support at 87.43. A bounce at a rising monthly trendline builds the case for a short-term move higher, but an imminent MACD crossover may actually spell continued correction in the NZDJPY pair. The short-term outlook remains bullish on a hold above short-term lows at 87.43, but a break below this level eyes subsequent support at 86.69 and further medium-term declines.
Table
CCI(20) - 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
> 100 - extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) - 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 - bullish
50 > - bearish
> 70 - overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD - MACD[1])
> 0 - bullish
0 > - bearish
