-EURJPY support line defines near term trend
-Watch for GBPJPY channel resistance
-CHFJPY flat possibly complete
-CADJPY bearish against 80.72
[B]
Euro / Japanese Yen[/B]
The complex correction from 113.59 may be complete. Dropping below the support line drawn off of the February 17, March 12, and March 30 lows would suggest that a top is in place. If 134.50 is taken out, then watch for resistance is 1.39, which is the confluence of the 50% retracement of 170-113.59 and the 200 day SMA.
[B]
British Pound / Japanese Yen[/B]
The GBPJPY advance from 118.79 is viewed as corrective. Specifically, the advance is a 4th wave. A flat (a-b-c) is underway and wave c is nearing completion. The possible point of resolution for the entire advance from 118.79 is Elliott channel resistance, which crosses through roughly 147.00 today and deceases about 30 pips per day.
[B]
Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen[/B]
The CHFJPY pattern looks the most mature. A picture perfect flat has been unfolding since the low at 74.66. Flats consist of 3 waves with subwaves of 3-3-5. Since 74.66, the CHFJPY rallied in 3 waves and declined in 3 waves. The rally from 75.38 is either in its latter stages or complete at 87.77.
[B]
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
Ignore the false spike on the chart. The CADJPY has kissed off of channel resistance, which favors the downside. The break of the RSI trendline on Monday also favors bears. Favor the downside against 80.72 in anticipation of a drop to a new low (below 68.36).
[B]
Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
Just like the AUDUSD, the AUDJPY decline from its 2008 high in impulsive (5 waves) fashion. Sideways price action since the October low at 55 is choppy and corrective. One possibility is that a complex correction (like the EURJPY) is unfolding that will end above 70.58. Look for resistance in the weeks ahead near the 200 day SMA at 75.77.
[B]
New Zealand Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]
In order to get a better grasp on the NZDJPY long term potential, I zoomed out to look at the weekly chart. The most important observation is that the 2000-2007 advance is in 11 waves, which is corrective (triple zigzag to be specific). This means that the decline that began in 2007 should end below 41.94. There is resistance at the current juncture from the January high at 56.39. The next level of resistance is the confluence of a weekly November high and the 200 day SMA at 61.50. Coming under 53.66 would be evidence that a top is in place.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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