Yen Technical Outlook

“The USDJPY rally has gone through 107.20 so we need to look at other counts.

One decline treats the drop from 124.13-95.72 as a W-X-Y decline (7 waves, which is corrective). However, it is not clear where this fits in the larger pattern (take a look at the monthly, and it is quite clear that the USDJPY has broken from a 4th wave bearish triangle). The other count is that the decline from 124.13 is a leading diagonal. In Elliott Wave Principle, it is stated that second waves following a leading diagonal often retrace 78.6% of the diagonal. Therefore, both counts suggest strength until 113/118 (roughly the 61.8% to 78.6%). The next short term move could be down in a b wave though (assuming that the advance from 95.72 is wave a). This sets up a near term bearish stance, then probably a flip to bullish in a few months for wave c.” Short term, the pair should encounter resistance from the confluence of the 200 day SMA and 2/14 high at 108.59. A short trade will probably be triggered in the next few days.

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