You have $10k to buy either gold or bitcoin, which will you buy?

50% gold 50% btc I’ll risk it both equally and see the outcome

You invest in 70% btc and 30% gold

There is no doubt in my mind about the probability that it will go up to $400K. I estimate this probability at 50%. The issue is WHEN. Left to its own fundamentals, though I do not fully understand it, the stock to flow model seems to fit well, given that the supply will remain static at 21million BTC by year 2140, with an estimated 18.5 million in circulation (but 4 million lost or unrecoverable). My own 5 year plan assumes that it will hit $400K before the end of 2025 (the end of my crypto investment time horizon for now). In May we had planned to own 0.25 BTC as 10% of our portfolio by 2025. In September we took a decision to increase that to 0.5BTC as 30% of our portfolio and in December we changed yet again to increase that to 2.0 BTC as 80% of our portfolio. That is a lot of change in eight months, but importantly, that plan guides our tactics by the year, month and week to strive to achieve that goal. Today we just bought another 0.015BTC on a 6% dip. That may seem like the slow boat to China, but if it’s not planned it’s not going to materialise. And whereas our initial plan was an investment plan only, it now includes a trading element that is required for us to achieve the new goal of 2.0 BTC by 2025.

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I agree with you.

Again … if someone asks the question: “Bitcoin or gold?” The answer is, undoubtedly…


Love it! So split the 10k then lol.

Very very interesting. I’m honestly just going to try what @Dennis3450 was doing. I should have followed along right when he started but better late than never I guess.

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80% in bitcoin and 20% gold, I believe in these two assets for long term value

Bitcoin 100%

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That’s cheating lol

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In trading there is always the third option - stay in cash. That’s where I’d be.

That’s interesting. Are you waiting for pullback or just not interested in either? :open_mouth:

Not interested in either as investments, just blue chip buy and never sell shares. Which I have enough of.

I’d be interested in riding trends in these for short-term trading profits, like Tesla and similar cr@p companies, but that’s it.

Gotcha. Def understand! Surprised you’re not looking at riding the bitcoin trend for short-term profits also.

I would do but its not offered by the UK SB firm I use. Which can be taken as a measure of risk I suppose.

The five steps in the lifecycle of a bubble are displacement, boom, euphoria, profit-taking, and panic.

I think BTC could be in the “euphoria” phase, right now.

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That is so true. The “do nothing” option - that most people forget. In my current work, about 30% of my recommendations turn out to be the “do nothing” option because the cost or risk of any proactive option of change is either too high or does not return the minimum expected ROI at the corporate level. A sobering thought.
My opinion about the “do nothing” option in this particular case (you are given $10K) is to accept that losing 7% per year in opportunity cost is acceptable, and therefore must mean that future expectations of profit potential from all other investment types or trading opportunities are negative too. Am I correct?

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And (in theory) that is the source of our planned redirection of funds - from gold to crypto. In a long term and boring sequence, not a big bang shift all at once. We don’t do anything all at once any more. It could be bad for the ticker. :face_vomiting:

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Very true. BTC is gaining value because it is regarded as a unit of exchange that is fast gaining in popularity. Technology is dynamic and alternative units of exchange WILL emerge and compete, maybe surpass BTC. However, there is little likelihood that another precious metal will be miraculously discovered to supplant the place of Gold.

With that in mind, I’d buy 100% Gold.

More instituional money will come and Bitcoin will hit 100k

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Whilst I agree with you about store of value in the long term, technology changes make rare commodities an interesting area to observe. Rare earth metals - those used in superconducting magnets in wind farms, electric vehicles and to a lesser extent mass production of battery stores (Tesla power wall, for example) may render some of those metals as good as or better than BTC in the next decade. A bit like the silver news that never seems to live up to its predictions by silver bugs. However, I put a great deal of thought - and some money - into ratio investing in the very long term. When I really grow up and get more time to think and study, I will be looking more closely at ratios. They are a developing part of my Crypto investment plan. Eg, look at how many ETH you can buy for one BTC. Over last year it has varied from less than 25 to more than 40. Strategy is to buy when you get a lot of the target (Alt) compared with the base (BTC) and sell when you get not much of the target (Alt) for the base. Only one example but I did this with BTC and ETH in December for a 25% gain in 15 days when the plan was to make a 20% gain within 60 days. A great example that generated a new trading strategy.