Thanks! I attached the PDF that harmonictrader.com put out of the 5-0 pattern if anyone’s interested. FYI, they have a few other free pdfs of other patterns: bat, crab, etc.
The5-0Pattern.pdf (2.73 MB)
Grandmaster Pip,
Thank you for uploading the 5-0 pattern pdf, I have attached 2 patterns for USDCAD, the first on the 4 hr I did not take the first BC leg but it is still trending down towards convergence and it coincides with the daily, input from all is greatly appreciated, thanks in advance
I went long off the 4h. hasnt moved much yet, just starting to move into some profit
i sale medical x-ray machine, and i’m working a medical equipment firm,a medical x-ray machine manufacturer.recently i always come here to read something about the forex,maybe one day,i make a big money:D
Amazing how these turn out. http://forums.babypips.com/226189-post4369.html I had given up on this pattern earlier this week but it’s there. I made my demo short entry @ 1.4282 last night… high of the day @ 1.42816. lol
Bearish Butterfly on 4hr chart w/ fibs.
As I said, I expect the EUR/USD to reach 1.44 before major reaction. Most likely it will create another flag and swing around this zone until mid December - New Years.
Bellow is a Bearish EUR/USD Weekly Gartley where the .618 of XA converges with the 127% of CD.
Not only does this pattern have perfect convergence, but it also lands in the same area where Euro weakness began to be questioned last year during the same quarter (Greece). Hmm, I wonder if this might add resistance… heh of course it does, think of it as a retest of a triangle (price comes back for the retest and then plummets). As always I leave you all with a word of caution, do not fall in love with the trade. Especially one as huge as this where its close confirmation takes a week. As a result, trade it initially for 30-60 pips and keep your eye out on higher patterns or re-entries for the sell on the lower time frames (4hr-5min) and in the mean time look for buys towards that zone. Good luck and I expect us all to have some great holidays.
*Convergence is between 1.44481-1.44405
Hello TMB -
I just posted a comment on your board. I was trying to get you my analysis, but was not able to email due to my limited activity on babypips thus far. If you could get back to me, I would appreciate it. I would hate to miss out on potential opportunities.
Much appreciated,
JP
Nice one there. I took a long position when I saw your charts and agreed with your convergence levels. Worked for a +30 pip gain. That was enough for me.
My mantra is now 30 pips a day.
Anhtarus,
Glad it worked for you, it is nice to get 30 pips and be done, especially today with the US news coming out later this morning for NFP and unemployment rate
grrr…lost some pips today…before go under more than half my weekly gains i will stop trading/overtrading/ …there is a whole world outside my trading room…i will go check it out:D…see ya next week
cashDemoN,
Hopefully next week will treat you right, have a good weekend and thanks for the help, this week has been crazy.
cheers dbear!
If you acknowledge the fact that just about anything can happen, how can you be wrong about the market?
By keeping this frame of mind, you ease the pressure on yourself to always be right about what the market will do next or having to take a loss. In doing so, you overcome the fear of losing money, which is inevitable to every trader
Once you are at peace with the possibility of losing money, you will be able to recognize all kinds of information that both support and argue against your market views and beliefs. So, not only will you come to a point where you trade using probabilities, and not your ego, but you’ll do a better job of seeing what’s really moving the markets.
source/babypips
and mine is 4% a day. Seriously i think people should start thinking in percentages. It does matter if the trade is 5, 10, [B]30[/B] or 100 pips if your risking 1-2% and reward is 2-4%. Keep it at 1:2 minimum.
£1000 Equity. 2% risk, Stop loss 5 pips = £4 per pip.
4% Reward. [B]10 pips = £40 [/B]
£1000 Equity. 2% risk, Stop loss 15 pips = £1.33 per pip.
4% Reward. [B]30 pips = £40 [/B]
[B]“Slow And Steady Wins The Race”[/B]
I don’t think TMB meant to take literally ‘30 pips a day’. What it means is to be conservative and not greedy because consistency is the key. For example, Trader A sets t.p. to 38.2% AD, his chances of reaching t.p are 90%.(estimate.) Trader B sets t.p. to 61.8%AD, his chances for reaching t.p. are reduced to 50%(estimate).
[I][U]Example[/U][/I]
Both traders make 10 trades. A to D = 100 pips for all trades.
Both traders have a stop loss at 15 pips, for all trades.
Trader A has 9/10 successful trades. 9x38.2 = 343.8 pips
Trader A lost 1 trade. 15x1= 15 pips
343.8 pips - 15 pips = [U]Total: 328.8 pips[/U]
Trader B has 5/10 successful trades. 5x61.8 = 309 pips
Trader B lost 5 trades. 15x5= 75 pips
309 pips - 75 pips = [U]Total: 234 pips[/U]
Trader B will think at first that he is making more pips by taking 61.8%AD. But he is not consistent. While trader A is making less pips at first but is consistent. Trader A eventually catches up, passes by, and slowly but Steadily, Wins The Race!".
I like your examples, for me and possibly others here who may not be on the same level as others, the 30 pip rule is also a comfort level situation. I know that the key to being successful is taking the emotion out of the trade, but everyone’s risk tolerance is different; I feel more comfortable going for 30 pips a day using a certain lot amount and once I get used to that level, instead of increasing the pip amount, I increase the lot amount; sometimes that 38.2% retracement looks like a pretty big hill to climb. I think that there are many paths to the top and hopefully we can all get there taking whatever route works for us
I posted the 4 HR chart last week and some went long, here is the 2 HR chart; could be we are not done with this yet?
Yes I agree dbear. Everyone chooses what’s best for them. The key thing to remember is going for more will make you less. And taking less will give you more. Weird huh?
I looked at my chart and your picture and it looks like its not ready yet because it didnt reach 100% of XA.
In any system you must have a set stop. I believe TMB usually uses a visual stop and closes on a close above a convergence. (i may be wrong, if so i’m sure i’ll be corrected ). I was curious what everyone elses typical stop was. I have been doing a good bit of stats lately and have found that typically, the maximum that price action will cross a convergence (assuming a good trade) is equal to the 100 period ATR. I have been adding 50% to 100% of this to my maximum stop loss (depeding on time period) and it has been working well at preventing a stop too close to the entry point.
Does anyone else have any alternative ideas for stop placement?
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away, know when to run. You never count your money while your sittin at the table, they’ll be time enought for countin when the dealins done
Kenny Rogers The gambler-old school advise