AceTraderForex Aug 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views

Trading Discussion Currencies
38

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:20GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ........ The single currency remained under pressure in Asian morning today after last Friday's breach of 1.2247 (Dec 08 low) to 1.2220 due to the dovish comments from European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio who said in a magazine interview he expected the euro zone inflation rate to turn negative in the coming months but that if this was just a temporary phenomenon, he did not see a risk of deflation.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2270 whilst bids are located at 1.2220 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.

On Sunday, Greek PM Antonis Samaras urged lawmakers to elect a new president and offered the prospect of general elections by the end of next year once negotiations with international creditors are complete.
Speaking in an unscheduled television address on Sunday, he said Greece had a duty to finish negotiations with the European Union and the IMF.
The unexpected announcement comes 2 days ahead of the 2nd round of voting in parliament to elect a new president n follows a disappointing result for the goverment’t in the 1st round last week when it won less support than expected.

If parliament does not elect a president by the 3rd and final round of voting on Dec. 29, a snap general election would have to be held by early Feb., putting talks on ending Greece’s international bailout programme at risk.

[B]This week[/B] will see the release of:

New Zealand’s Westpac consumer survey, Japan’s BoJ Monthly Economic Survey, Germany’s Import Price Index, Italy’s Trade Balance, Eurozone’s U.S.'s Existing Home Sales [B]on Monday[/B].

New Zealand’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China’s CB Leading Economic Index, France’s GDP, Producer Prices, Italy’s Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Australia’s CB Leading Indicator, Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator; U.S. Initial Jobless Claims [B]on Wednesday.[/B]

Japan’s BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. New Zealand, Australia, China, Eurozone countries and North America are on Christmas Holiday [B]on Thursday. [/B]

New Zealand, Australia, Italy, Germany, Canada are on Boxing day holiday [B]on Friday. [/B]

39

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
23 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:16GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... The single currency met renewed selling interest at 1.2272 on Monday and fell to a fresh 27-month low at 1.2217 new New York close due to dollar's broad-based strength on renewed risk appetite following the rise in global stock markets.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2245-50 and more at 1.2265-70.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2220-15 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2200.

Euro is expected to remain under pressure for the rest of this year on speculation the European Central Bank will add stimulus next year as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates.

In other news, S&P said on Monday that it still sees the first rate hike in June 2015, and says the Fed Funds rate can go as high as 1.25% by 2015 end. This corresponds with the Fed’s own projection which had the range of Fed Funds between 1.000 and 1.25% (or 1.125% for the average of the low to high range).

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of New Zealand’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, China’s CB Leading Economic Index, France’s GDP, Producer Prices, Italy’s Retail Sales, U.K.'s BBA Mortgage Approvals, Current Account, GDP, U.S.'s GDP, Personal Consumption, Redbook, Housing Price Index, Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending.

40

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD

29 Dec 2014[/B] [I]01:08GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Euro came under initial selling pressure ahead of Asian open as short-term specs sold the single currency on political woes in Greece following w/end comments by Greek PM Samaras and German FinMin Schaeuble.

Reuters reported Greek PM Antonis Samaras faces a vote in parliament later toay that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power n derail an international bailout. Voting is due to start at midday (10:00 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later.

Reuters also reported Samaras warned lawmakers on Saturday against the snap election that will be called if he loses a key presidential vote in parliament on Monday, but said he was confident of winning if Greeks did go to the polls.

Speaking before Monday’s decisive round in the election of a successor to head of state Karolos Papoulias, Samaras said a general election, which must be held if a new president cannot be appointed, was against the national interest.

“The Greek people do not want early elections,” he told state television in an interview. “I have done and I am doing everything to ensure a president is elected and snap elections are averted,” Samaras said.

His comment came on the same day German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that any Greek gov’t would have to respect commitments already made by Athens.

More w/end news worth noting which also contributed to euro’s initial weakness ahead of Asian open Monday. Reuters reported German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble expressed his reservations against the ECB launching a bond buying stimulus program and praised Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann’s arguments against such moves.

In an interview with Bild newspaper on Sat, Schaeuble repeated his view that structural reforms are needed in some of the struggling euro zone countries.

“The ECB can make its decisions independently,” Schaeuble said. “But cheap money should not be allowed to dent the reform zeal in some countries. There is no alternative to structural reforms - if things are going to improve again.”

Schaeuble, when asked whether Weidmann has enough clout in the ECB, said: “Germany’s voice has weight…But even if we’re the strongest economy, Germany can’t always get its way. At the end of the day a compromise is what’s needed. But the arguments from Jens Weidmann are strong and are listened to in the ECB.”

He added Chancellor Angela Merkel and he have an open dialogue with Draghi. “The Chancellor n me, the finance minister, are constantly having intensive discussions with Mario Draghi.”

41

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
30 Dec 2014[/B] [I]02:21GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... The single currency tumbled after meeting renewed selling at 1.2220 in Europe yesterday (Europe) due to early knee-jerk reaction to failed Greek parliamentary vote.

Stops below last week’s 1.2165 low were triggered and price weakened to 1.2142 in NY and then 1.2135 in Asian morning today.

Offers are now tipped at 1.2150, 1.2160-65 and more at 1.2180. On the downside, some bids are located at 1.2130-20 with mixture of bids and stops seen at 1.2100 level.

Greek opposition leader Tsipras says ‘if elected Syriza gov’t would guarantee bank deposits in Greek banks.’

Yesterday, although the single currency found some support at 1.2191 in Europe and staged a recovery to 1.2215 in NY morning, renewed selling emerged and pressured the pair lower. Euro continued to remain under pressure and fell to 1.2178 at NY midday, weighed down by the news of failed Greek vote together with cross-selling of euro vs sterling.
Offers were now seen at 1.2190/00 and more above at 1.2210/20 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids were noted at 1.2150/60, suggesting selling on recovery was still favored.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday:[/B]

UK Nationwide house prices, Italy business confidence, producer prices, U.S. Redbook retail sales, CaseShiller home price n consumer confidence.

42

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

05 Jan 2015[/B] [I]01:16GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Although the single currency moved quietly above last Friday's fresh 4-1/2 year low of 1.2001 in NZ, price tumbled in thin Australian morning to a near 9-year bottom of 1.1861 (EBS).

Some cited selling to w/end euro-bearish news. Reuters reported the German gov’t believes that the euro zone would now be able to cope with a Greece exit if that proved to be necessary, Der Spiegel news magazine reported on Sat, citing unnamed gov’t sources.

Both Chancellor Angela Merkel n FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble believe the euro zone has implemented enough reforms since the height of the regional crisis in 2012 to make a potential Greece exit manageable, Der Spiegel reported.

“The danger of contagion is limited because Portugal and Ireland are considered rehabilitated,” the weekly news magazine quoted one gov’t source saying.

In addition, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the euro zone’s bailout fund, is an “effective” rescue mechanism and was now available, another source added. Major banks would be protected by the banking union.

It is still unclear how a EZ member country could leave the euro and still remain in the European Union, but Der Spiegel quoted a “high-ranking currency expert” as saying that “resourceful lawyers” would be able to clarify.

According to the report, the German gov’t considers a Greece exit almost unavoidable if the leftwing Syriza opposition party led by Alexis Tsipras wins an election set for Jan. 25.

German Fin Min Schaeuble has already warned Greece against straying fm a path of economic reform, saying any new gov’t would be held to the pledges made by the current Samaras gov’t.

[B]Data to be released this week: [/B]

Japan manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, CPI, HICP, Swiss manufacturing PMI, UK construction PMI and U.S. ISM New York index [B]on Monday. [/B]

Australia exports, imports, trade balance, China services PMI, France consumer confidence, services PMI, Italy services PMI, Germany services PMI, UK services PMI, Canada producer prices, U.S. durable goods, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and services PMI [B]on Tuesday. [/B]

UK BRC shop price index, Halifax house price, Germany unemployment rate, Italy unemployment rate, EU inflation, unemployment rate, Canada exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. ADP employment, international trade and FOMC minutes [B]on Wednesday.[/B]

Australia building approvals, Germany industrial orders, EU producer prices, retail sales, UK BoE rate decision and Canada new housing price [B]on Thursday. [/B]

Australia retail sales, Japan leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate, China CPI, PPI, Germany imports, exports, industrial output, trade balance, France exports, imports, industrial output, trade balance, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance, Canada building permits, unemployment rate, U.S. average earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, wholesale inventories and wholesale sales [B]on Friday.[/B]

43

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jan 2015[/B] [I]08:00GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- ..... Euro fell briefly to a fresh near 9-year low of 1.1850 in thin Australian morning on Wed b4 moving sideways in Asia. Although European early birds tested the downside, renewed buying at 1.1855 has lifted the single currency at European open n price ratcheted higher to 1.1896.

Looks like minor consolidation is in store in European morning ahead of release of key EZ Dec inflation data at 10:00GMT, street forecast is looking for a further decline, if so, then euro wud come under renewed selling pressure on speculation of ECB’s QE action at its next policy meeting on Jan 22. Therefore, selling euro on recovery is the way to go ahead of the data. Offers are tipped at 1.1895/1.1905 n more abv wud stops abv 1.1950/60, more stops are reported at 1.1980/90. Initial bids are noted at 1.1855-50 n more below (profit-taking).

This morning the single currency tumbled to a fresh near 9-year low at 1.1850 (Reuters) in Australian morning due to speculation that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will begin quantitative easing as early as this month to combat the risk of deflation.
In other news, Bloomberg reported that ECB officials are working on a plan to buy government bonds as they strive to prevent a deflationary spiral of falling prices and households postponing spending and they may use a gathering tomorrow to weigh options for a quantitative-easing program that may be announced at their Jan. 22 policy meeting.

44

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jan 2015[/B] [I]02:36GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Although the single currency eased after extending last Friday's rise to 1.1870 in thin Asian morning due to dlr's broad-based weakness, renewed buying interest is located at 1.1840 and more at 1.1820-10.

On the upside, some offers are tipped at 1.1880-90 with mixture of offers and stops seen at 1.1900.

Market players are still focusing on the coming ECB’s rate decision on 22 Jan that may impose more stimulus.
Central-bank staff have presented policy makers with models for buying as much as 500 billion euros ($593 billion) of investment-grade assets, according to a person who attended a meeting of the Governing Council last week.

[B]Data to be released this week: [/B]

Australia Housing Finance, U.S. Employment Trends [B]on Monday.[/B] Markets in Japan will be closed for Coming of Age Day.

Japan’s Current Account and Economic Watchers Poll, China’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Italy’s Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail sales, CPI, PPI, RPI, U.S. Rebook and Federal Budget [B]on Tuesday.[/B]

Japan’s Machine Tool Orders, France’s CPI, Italy’s CI, U.K.'s CB leading economic index, U.S.'s Expots, Imports, Retail sales, Business Inventories and Fed’s Beige Book [B]on Wednesday. [/B]

Japan’s Corp Goods Price and Machinery Orders, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment, Participation Rate, Germany’s GDP, U.S.'s PPI, NY Fed Manufacturing, Philly Fed Business Index [B]on Thursday.[/B]

Germany’s CPI and HICP, France Budget Balance, Switzerland Retail Sales, U.S. Real Weekly Earnings, CPI, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization, University of Michigan Sentiment, Net Long-Term Flows[B] on Friday.[/B]

45

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jan 2015[/B] [I]01:09GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ....... Euro fell ahead of Asian open on Tuesday following a short-covering rally to 1.1639 in thin N. American session, some cited for the intra-day weakness on euro-bearish news.

Reuters reported Greece’s anti-bailout opposition party Syriza appears to be gaining momentum with less than a week before Sunday’s snap election, moving further ahead of the co-ruling conservatives in 3 separate opinion polls.

Syriza, which wants to renegotiate a chunk of Greek debt and end austerity measures, saw its poll lead grow to 6.5 points on Monday, according to a survey for the University of Macedonia conducted for Greece’s SKAI Television, up from a 4.5 point lead shown by the same pollster last week.

Syriza would garner 33.5% of the vote, up from 31.5%, while PMr Antonis Samaras’ New Democracy party, which has pushed through unpopular reforms as part of an international bailout, stood unchanged on 27%.

A Syriza victory could trigger a stand off with Greece’s EU and IMF lenders and unleash a new financial crisis.

A 2nd survey on Monday, carried out by Alco for the newspaper Proto Thema, put Syriza on 33.1% with the conservatives on 28.5%, a 4.6 point lead for Syriza compared with a difference of 3.5 points in a poll by the same firm last week.

A 3rd survey by GPO for television station Mega also showed Syriza pulling ahead, this time from a lead of 3.2 points in a survey conducted nearly 2 weeks ago to 4 points, with the anti-bailout party on 30.4% compared to 26.4% for New Democracy.

All 3 pollsters indicated that centrist party Potami (River) could play the role of kingmaker if voters deliver a hung parliament, with the political movement created by a journalist-turned-politician coming in third place, although jointly with the far-right Golden Dawn party in one survey.

[B]Tuesday [/B]will see the release of New Zealand’s NZIER Business Confidence, China’s GDP, Retail sales, Industrial Output, Germany’s Producer Prices, ZEW Current Conditions, ZEW Economic Sentiment, Italy’s Trade Balance, euro zone’s ZEW Economic Sentiment, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Market Index.

46

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jan 2015 [/B] [I]02:13GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... Despite yesterday's rally to 1.1424 due to active short-covering, renewed selling there knocked price lower to 1.1333 in NY and then 1.1331 today.

Offers are tipped at 1.1390-00 and more at 1.1420-25.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.1310-00 with stops seen below 1.1290.

According to Lars Loekke Rasmussen, the 50-year-old leader of Denmark opposition and the man who polls consistently show will become prime minister after elections due to take place by September. He said there’s no point setting a date for a referendum on swapping Denmark’s currency peg for full euro membership.

Yesterday despite the release of upbeat U.S. consumer confi., broad-based strength in European currencies pushed euro higher and price extended intra-day rally from 1.1224 (Asia) to 1.1422 in NY morning before easing due to some profit-taking.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s Westpac leading index, CPI, RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, Switzerland UBS Consumption indicator, Germany’s Gfk Consumer Sentiment, Import Price index, France’s Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision and monetary policy statement.

47

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Feb 2015 [/B] [I]02:14GMT [/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... The single currency ratcheted higher to 1.1362 on Monday on renewed risk appetite n short-covering due to euro-positive news as Greece retreated from its call on the euro area to write down its debt, and instead proposed to exchange existing borrowings for new bonds linked to the country's growth.

Euro maintained a firm undertone in Asian morning and bids are now located at 1.1325-20 and more at 1.1310-05 with stop only seen below 1.1300.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.1360-65 n more at 1.1380.

Bloomberg news reported that Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis spoke to about 100 financiers in London late on Monday and outlined plans to swap some Greek debt owned by the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Fund for the new securities, according to a person who attended the meeting and asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Reuters reported Germany’s Angela Merkel will have the chance to meet Greece’s new leader Alexis Tsipras at a EU summit on Feb. 12, while their 2 finance ministers will meet in coming days, officials said on Monday.

“The German gov’t is looking forward to meeting the new Greek PM, there is no specific request for a meeting but there will be opportunities,” Merkel’s spokeswoman Christiane Wirtz told reporters, adding that Berlin was waiting to hear the Greek govt’s ideas.
“There is a willingness and interest in having good relations with the Greek gov’t, but Germany will stand by the foundations of its euro policy,” Wirtz added.

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Australia Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Bulling Approvals, RBA rate decision and monetary policy statement, Switzerland’s Trade Balance, UK’s Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Italy’s CPI, euro zone Producer Prices, Canada Producer Prices, U.S’s Redbook, and Factory orders.

48

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Feb 2015[/B] [I]00:24GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - … Euro tumbled in NY afternoon after ECB announced cancellaton of acceptance of Greek bond for funding.

Earlier Reuters reported that the European Central Bank released the following statement on Wednesday on the eligibility of Greek bonds for use as security in its refinancing operations, quote:-
Eligibility of Greek bonds used as collateral in Euro system monetary policy operations.
ECB’s Governing Council lifts current waiver of minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic.
Suspension is in line with existing Euro system rules, since it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review.
Suspension has no impact on counter party status of Greek financial institutions.
Liquidity needs of affected Euro system counter parties can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, in line with Euro system rules.
This decision does not bear consequences for the counter party status of Greek financial institutions in monetary policy operations. Liquidity needs of Euro system counter parties, for counter parties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Euro system rules.
The instruments in question will cease to be eligible as collateral as of the maturity of the current main refinancing operation.

Later, Reuters reported ECB has renewed its approval of an emergency liquidity assistance line (ELA) for Greek banks to enable them to fund themselves from the country’s central bank, a Greek banking source told Reuters on Wednesday.
The ECB had granted a 2-week approval last month n reappraised the situation on Wed.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Australia’s HIA New Home Sales, Retail Sales, Switzerland’s Consumer Confidence, Germany’s Industrial Orders, UK’s BoE rate decision and QE Total, U.S.'s International Trade, Labour Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, Canada’s Trade Balance, Exports and Imports.

49

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Feb 2015[/B] [I]08:06GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .... Euro regains partial lost ground in early European trading after Fri's sell off to 1.1312. Although price came under renewed selling pressure in NZ after Greek PM Tsipras on Sunday rejected bailout ahead of EU meeting this Wednesday, short covering quickly emerged and price edged higher to 1.1340 in Asia.

Another round of buying at 1.1318 by European traders pushed price higher, tripping some stops above 1.1340, however, more offers are tipped at 1.1350/60 are likely to check intra-day rebound.

Choppy range trading is in store ahead of release of EZ Feb investor confidence at 09:30GMT. Street forecast is 3.0 vs prev. reading of 0.9.

This morning the single currency tumbled from 1.1488 to 1.1311 last Friday due to the release of robust U.S. jobs report, price further weakened to 1.1287 in NZ/AUS today before recovering on profit-taking. .
Investors are now focusing on the ongoing Greek debt saga and its potentially jarring impact as Leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras laid out plans on Sunday to dismantle Greece’s “cruel” austerity programme, ruling out any extension of its international bailout and setting himself on a collision course with his European partners.

Besides, Euro zone finance ministers will meet at the Eurogroup gathering on Wednesday, at which the Greek finance minister has said he will present a comprehensive proposal. The European Council meeting takes place the following day.

50

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
10 Feb 2015[/B] [I]01:15GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Market highlight will be EZ FinMins' meeting on Wednesday and Greece is at the top of the agenda. Reuters reported Greece and its EZ partners engaged in brinkmanship on Monday, with leftist PM Alexis Tsipras insisting his country would not extend its reform-linked bailout and Germany saying it would get no more money without such a program.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned Greeks not to expect the euro zone to bow to Tsipras’ demands in a growing confrontation which spooked financial markets and prompted U.S. and Canadian pleas for calm and compromise.

Escalating the rhetoric, Greece’s FinMin said the euro zone could collapse “like a house of cards” if Athens were forced out. A Greek finance official said he did not believe Juncker, IMF chief Christine Lagarde or German Chancellor Angela Merkel would let Greece go bankrupt, but Merkel said Greece needed to come up with a sustainable proposal. “I think what counts is what Greece will put on the table,” Merkel said at a news conference in Washington.

Visiting Austria on Monday, Tsipras said he was confident of striking a compromise with European partners in the coming days and renewed his appeal for a “bridge” arrangement until June to allow time to negotiate a restructuring of Greece’s debt.

[B]Tuesday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Tertiary Industry Index, Australia’s Home Price Index, NAB Business Conditions, China’s CPI, PPI, Switzerland’s Unemployment, CPI, France’s Industrial Output, Italy’s Industrial Output, U.K.'s BRC Retail Sales, Industrial Output, Manufacturing Output, U.S. Redbook, Wholesale sales and Wholesale inventories.

51

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Feb 2015 [/B] [I]01:44GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ...... A piece of Bloomberg's news report worth noting ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting. Currency volatility surged along with the U.S. dollar as Germany and Greece head for a showdown that is spurring traders to take out insurance against euro declines.

The premium to protect against a drop in the euro versus the greenback rose to the highest since January 23rd - the day after the ECB announced it would purchase sovereign bonds - before Greece’s official creditors hold an emergency meeting.
A gauge of the dollar closed at its highest level in data going back to 2004 as comments from regional Federal Reserve presidents suggested policy makers could raise interest rates by mid year.

Traders paid more to protect against euro losses as German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble doused the outlook for Greece’s meeting. There are no plans to give Greece more time to negotiate, and “it’s over” if the nation doesn’t want the final tranche of its existing aid program, Schaeuble told reporters in Istanbul after a G20 meeting.

Traders see 26% odds that the Fed will lift rates from a record low by the end of June, futures data showed.

[B]Wednesday [/B]will see the release of Australia’s Westpac Confidence, Housing Finance, France’s Current Account, U.S. Federal Budget. Markets in Japan will be closed on Wednesday due to National Foundation Day.

52

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Feb 2015[/B] [I]01:03GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .....EU sources said some ministers were surprised that the informal tone extended to not bringing a written document outlining proposals. Varoufakis simply made oral statements.

Economists polled by Reuters this week estimated a one-in-four chance of Greece leaving the 19-nation single currency area this year - the highest reading since the start of the Greek debt crisis in late 2009.

EU leaders will take up the issue at their first summit with Tsipras on Thursday EU officials said they would be briefed on the ministerial talks but there would be no room for debt negotiation at a summit mostly devoted to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, fighting terrorism and longer-term reform of the euro zone’s governance.

Varoufakis has proposed a 6-month transition in which Greece would be allowed to issue more short-term debt, receive the proceeds of ECB holdings of Greek bonds and tap unused bank rescue funds while renegotiating its debt. Athens would swap its euro zone loans for GDP-linked bonds and its ECB-held debt for interest-bearing perpetual bonds with no reimbursement date.

EU officials have said the most Greece can expect is a further extension of the repayment deadline for its euro zone loans, a lower interest rate and perhaps a prolonged moratorium on debt service payments, in return for continued reforms under some form of external supervision.

On Wednesday’s 1st official talk between EU FinMins & Greece’s FinMIn. Reuters reported Greece’s new leftist gov’t n its international creditors failed to agree on a way forward on the country’s unpopular bailout and will try again next Monday, with time running out for a financing deal.
In 7 hours of crisis talks in Brussels that ended after midnight, EZ FinMins were unable to agree even a joint statement on the next procedural steps. Both sides played down the setback, insisting there had been no rupture.

In Athens, a Greek official said Varoufakis had discussed with IMF MD Christine Lagarde and Dijsselbloem some form of “bridge agreement” for funding the state once the current bailout deal expires.

[B]Thursday[/B] will see the release of Japan’s Corp Goods Price, Machinery Orders, Australia’s Employment, Unemployment, Germany’s CPI, HICP, euro zone’s Industrial Production, U.K.'s RICS Housing Survey, BoE quarterly inflation report, Canada’s New Housing Price Index, U.S.'s Retail sales, Jobless Claims and Business Inventories.

53

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2015[/B] [I]00:39GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... Euro tumbled in thin North American afternoon session when news of a breakdown in the debt deal between Eurogroup & Greece. Reuters reported Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis said on Monday that he had been prepared to agree to a deal with creditors that would have given Athens 4 to 6 months additional credit in return for putting major new budget policies on hold.

He said the European Commission had put such a suggestion to him before Mon’s meeting of EZ FinMins but that it had been superseded by a different draft proposal - fm Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem - that he could not sign because it obliged Athens to extend its current bailout package. Dijsselbloem’s proposal was “highly problematic,” he said.

A Commission official said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici had “contributed ideas” in discussions with Varoufakis but that only the Eurogroup proposal was the object of negotiations.

Varoufakis said he remained ready to sign a proposal based on Moscovici’s ideas. “I was prepared to sign it this morning, this afternoon, I would sign it at midnight, tomorrow at 9 in the morning.
I would even consider signing some (other) version of it because the point here is not to allow an impasse.”

He said he was optimistic a deal would be struck within the next 48 hours. “Europe will do the usual trick. It will pull a good agreement, an honorable agreement, out of what seems to be an impasse,” he said.

[B]Data to be released on Tuesday: [/B]

Australia’s RBA Meeting Minutes, China’s House Prices, Italy’s Trade Balance, U.K.'s CPI, PPI, RPI, Germany’s Zew reports, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Markets, Net L-T Flows, Overall Capital Flows.

54

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2015[/B] [B]08:25GMT[/B]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- ..... Although euro gained a moment of respite in Asian trading after staging a recovery from Tuesday's 1.1320 following intra-day sell off in thin North American afternoon session after talks between EZ FinMins & Greek FinMIn collapsed, sellers emerged at 1.1366 n gave the single currency a bashing at European open (as European traders missed the opportunity to sell the euro), however, selling does not appear to be as fierce as y'day's decline, suggesting further steep fall below 1.1320 is unlikely to be seen.

Expect range trading with a soft bias to continue ahead of release of key German & EZ ZEW sentiment, if the readings are lower than street forecast, euro shud head lower to 1.1300.
Offers are tipped at 1.1355/65 n more above with stops reported above 1.1385, some bids are reported at 1.1330-20 with some stops touted below 1.1300, however, there is market chatter of large stops building below 1.1270, so selling euro on recovery is recommended.

An hour ago, Reuters reported that: "Dijsselbloem hopes Greece will ask for extension to programme, then can allow flexibility inside programme; we stand ready to work with Greece over next couple of days.
Greek Finance Minister says Europe will continue to deliberate to achieve good outcome for average European."
While Austrian FIN MIN told German radio: “that eurozone finance ministers are prepared to hold a special meeting, time is pressing; for a deal with Greece, Athens will have to shift its position.”

This morning the single currency tumbled to as low as 1.1320 on Monday after news of a breakdown in the EU/Greece debt talk, however, short-covering lifted price briefly but renewed selling was tipped at 1.1360-70 and more at 1.1390-00.
On the downside, bids were located at 1.1320 and 1.1305-00 with some stops seen at 1.1300.

55

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Feb 2015[/B] [I]06:36GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD [/B]- ..... More about previous news on Greek bailout extension. Reuters reported Greece has made every effort to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with its euro zone partners but will not be pushed to implement its old bailout programe, its gov't spokesman said on Friday.

“The Greek gov’t has done all it should at every level in an effort to find a mutually beneficial solution,” gov’t spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis told Mega TV.

On Thursday, Germany rejected a Greek proposal for a 6-month extension to its euro zone loan agreement, saying it was “not a substantial solution” because it did not commit Athens to stick to the conditions of its international bailout.
“We are not discussing the continuation of the (bailout) programme,” Sakellaridis said. “The Greek government will maintain this stance today, although conditions have matured for a solution to be found at last.”

As Greece has done all its should to find mutually beneficial solution with euro zone partners, Greece is not discussing continuing bailout programme and will maintain this position at Eurogroup - gov’t spokesman.

[B]Data to be released on Friday: [/B]

China market holiday, Japan manufacturing PMI, leading economic index, Germany PPI, services PMI, manufacturing PMI, France services PMI, manufacturing PMI, Italy industrial sales, industrial orders, CPI, EU services PMI, manufacturing PMI, UK retail sales, PSNB, PSNCR, Canada retail sales and U.S. manufacturing PMI.

56

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

20 Feb 2015[/B] [I]08:41GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - ..... More on Greece. Reuters reported Austrian FinMin Hans Joerg Schelling was quoted by a newspaper as saying Greece must complete its current bailout package before any new programme can be agreed, in comments which his ministry said came before he saw Greece's latest loan request.

Schelling told the Oberoesterreichische Nachrichten paper that the request fm Athens had to “respect the conditions” of the current bailout programme. Afterwards, “we can discuss a new programme with new conditions, but now the current programme has to be completed”, he was quoted as saying, reiterating his stated position.

A ministry spokesman said his comments to the paper had been made early on Thur. Schelling has not made any public comments on the latest Greek proposals that are due to be discussed by euro zone finance ministers on Friday.

Finland’s finance minister said he was hopeful that euro zone finance ministers could reach a deal on extending Greece’s bailout programme at their meeting on Friday.
“Last night, a spark of hope arose that an understanding could be reached … so that Greece could continue the underlying programme to strengthen its economy,” Antti Rinne said in a live streamed interview with the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat.

Finland n Germany earlier rejected a Greek proposal for a six-month extension to its euro zone loan agreement.

Austrian FINMIN Schelling says prospects for Grexit not very high, damage to Greeks wud be higher to euro zone - paper.
Schelling says Greece must respect conditions of bailout; prospects for GRExit not very high, damage to Greeks would be higher than to eurozone - Oberosterreichische Nachrichten paper.

Finnish Fin Min Rinne says spark of hope on Greece deal arised last night.

57

[B]Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
24 Feb 2015[/B] [I]09:24GMT[/I]

[B]EUR/USD[/B] - .....  Reuters report that the Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem says, quote:

‘Greek gov’t is very serious regarding its reform commitments;
Greek list of reforms is just a first step, it’s going to take time to get into details;
only one gov’t had a meeting to discuss Grexit and that was the British gov’t;
Eurozone ministers cud consider further debt relief measures if Greece meets all criteria;
at the end of the 4-month bailout extension, Eurogroup will assess Greek debt sustainability, primary surplus;
fiscal targets can be adjusted in Greek programme if economic conditions justify this, cannot be decided unilaterally.’

While BoE’s Forbes said, quote:
‘risks fm inflation, asset bubbles consumption and debt are moderate, cud deteriorate quickly;
risks cud factor into a case to tighten monetary policy in the new future; external factors for current low inflation in UK will fade quickly;
UK rates not yet generating inflation pressure that cud not be addressed in timely fashion.’