RDK,
Those results looks good!! Are you willing to share your EA with us?
Green.
I am currently looking at this Ea which look quite good. But something really weird tells me to stay away for the moment. If you look at the trades report there is one trade on the 18th of November which could have lead to a massive drawdown :
sell price 1.3600 on the 18th and exit on the 1st December at 1.3071 with 0.05 lots.
If you go back on you chart you will find that on the 22nd November you were looser for 178 pips and after that the prices goes down to lead to a benefit.
Virtually you were looser for around 90$ on a 250$ deposit so 40% potential drawdown :eek:
Is that a good money mangement lol
Additionally this is the biggest winning trade on the report which helps to end to a nice equity curve.
I am gonna follow your own report to get your feedback and feellings about his ea.
Regards
This EA Ok looks good doesn’t it, now time for reality FOLKS!
Go to their website and download the 8year Strategy tester report!
What do you see well I’ll tell you:
From 13/02/02 to 05/04/02 there are 32 losers on in a Row Ouch!!
From 28/01/02 to 09/05/02 there is a running DD of 45.8%.
I hear people saying ok these things happen so what it made a nice profit after the 8yrs and continues to do so on the live statement RIGHT well WRONG!
Let’s look at something here shall we.
Firstly yes 2002 was a long time ago but it counts remember the rule what has happened in the past can happen again PERIOD that’s why we back test RIGHT!
Secondly take a close look at the lot size on that back test its 0.1 ($1) against a $2500 starting balance, and the current live statement is using 0.05 (50c) against a $250 starting balance that’s 5 times bigger, because if they had deposited $2500 on the live statement 10 x $250 that 0.05 lot would be 0.5 ($5) 10 times more, are with me so far?
So now let’s look at that 45.8% DD again based on the current lot size against balance on the live statement that would be 5 x higher 229% which makes the system this EA uses on current lot size untradeable, so those results are not a true reflection of a realistic return over a long period, to make it a tradable EA those lot sizes should be set 5 times LOWER @ 0.01 (10c) against the $250 balance and hence the returns are suddenly not so impressive!!
Over the 8yrs the returns average out @ around 16% per month with a running DD of 45.8% and don’t forget the 32 losers in a row I don’t think those stats are very impressive do you??
Sorry to be a party pooper but I’m sick of these sites claiming they are selling a Rolls Royce and providing a Mini yes they both get you from a to b but if you choose to drive the Rolls it will run out of Petrol before you reach your final destination more than once as well!!
And remember to maintain the monthly % returns you have to compound your lot sizes (increase them against your balance) so that 229% DD will always be a risk, even with the right lot size a 45.8% DD is quite a high risk to make a miserable 16% a month, in my opinion anyway!
well guys I appreciate the input. In reality my threshold to turn an ea off is far below 32 losses in a row. In fact after 5 I would cut my risk down to much lower as I wait to see what is happening. Also I don’t marry an ea. If it stops working I stop trading it period. It is hard to tell when this is but what I do is I use it as long as I can and as long as it is profitable then when it starts to tank I look to stop trading it.
A perfect example is forex morning trade. I am in love with this robot and to preface this I realize December is thin markets but so far she has suffered loss after loss by her 4th or 5th loss I have cut my lot size down to .1 when she starts winning again I will increase my lot size and if she doesn’t I will get rid of her. Even though I love her I will pull the plug.
The markets are dynamic and I don’t expect a repeat of 02 however I would be remiss not to head your warning and be watchful so thank you and I do hope you continue to post here. Babypips is a great place for us to get together and talk. Also I would say that with my account I try to always practice sound money management and i agree with you his lot size seems a little high to me. I am going to go though his trading statement and try and figure out his average loss size to calculate a proper trade size based on my account balance.
I am currently looking at this Ea which look quite good. But something really weird tells me to stay away for the moment. If you look at the trades report there is one trade on the 18th of November which could have lead to a massive drawdown :
sell price 1.3600 on the 18th and exit on the 1st December at 1.3071 with 0.05 lots.If you go back on you chart you will find that on the 22nd November you were looser for 178 pips and after that the prices goes down to lead to a benefit.
Virtually you were looser for around 90$ on a 250$ deposit so 40% potential drawdown
Is that a good money mangement lol
Additionally this is the biggest winning trade on the report which helps to end to a nice equity curve.
I am gonna follow your own report to get your feedback and feellings about his ea.
Regards
I am certainly going to look into this and see whats going on here. Thanks for the heads up.
first day of trades for me (tho I tweaked it a bit) and all losers… good thing it’s on a demo account right now. back to default settings, we’ll see what that does.
Lol, if the MM is as bad as some have claimed, I guess we should throw this in the bin.
Another one…
first day of trades for me (tho I tweaked it a bit) and all losers… good thing it’s on a demo account right now. back to default settings, we’ll see what that does.
I didn’t have any trades today and neither did Eugene. So no loser for me today.
Lol, if the MM is as bad as some have claimed, I guess we should throw this in the bin.
Another one…
Another well thought out and constructive remark from fxvoilaaa. What a shock. Incidently what is the money mangement? Risk reward? Hmm I belong to a lot of forums and I haven’t heard a negative thing yet maybe you can enlighten me as to what “people” are saying or better yet what is your first hand experience???
Here is the pic swhowing what I was explaining on my previous post : potential 180 pips looser (40% drawdown) trade. First line is entry, 2nd is potential lost and last one is the close trade. Higlighted in blue the trade involved.
I still follow your live result with great attention because all other trades are quit good 
By dreufi at 2011-01-11
your right that would be a 170+ drawdown. @ .05 lots it is aproximatly $85ish if the account was 826.67 than the drawdown was something like just under 10% so I am not sure where the 40% comes from? But anyway I am glad you are following along.
So far no trades this week.
Virtually you were looser for around 90$ on a 250$ deposit so 40% potential drawdown
okay I backpeddled a little bit. If the account value was $250 and you lost $85 than it would be a 34% drawdown which would be crazy. I agree but like I said I think the account balance was more like 826.67 if my math is correct so 10% is still high but a little easier to stomach.
Two EU shorts open…
Sell @ 1.2983 currently +10
Sell @ 1.2978 Currently +5
Sell @ 1.2983 currently +10
Sell @ 1.2978 Currently +5
both closed at 1.3004
sell @ 1.2983 closed @ 1.3004 -21
sell @ 1.2978 closed @ 1.3004 -26
You are perfectly right. I am so dumb sometimes, I need some hollydays 
It makes your feedback on the ea in real trading even more interresting for me.
You are perfectly right. I am so dumb sometimes, I need some hollydays
It makes your feedback on the ea in real trading even more interresting for me.
Your not dumb. Forex is a constant learning experience and sometimes the numbers make sense and some times they are confusing. Like anything else there is always different ways of looking at things and a perspective that is constantly growing and evolving. I’m glad your here. So far you have pointed out a potential massive loser that I would have missed and it helps me to see what type of stop losses we are potentially dealing with.
where’s the ea/ flat form not clear
It’s only the MT4 view of the ea. You can get access for free on the forex growth bot web site.
It was only to highlight a potential big loss with this ea but not as big as I thought at the beginning.
Thanks to johnny for pointing out my mistake 
EU long @ 1.3246 currently +17
+35 wow she’s climbing!