The weekly COT-report for the most part is useless for trading as the data is heavily delayed. Sure, you can build nice crossover-systems around it, with mediocre performance, if any. But the real edge comes if you can analyze the positioning of other players in realtime. And that’s exactly what the system does I am using…
Hi ForExchange,
You are very welcome! Your assumption was correct, I am a subscriber of the service. They’ve got a good video explanation, I think you should see it. You’ll get a brief picture of what kind of tools they have to offer: HOW TO USE? | COTbase.com
For me, it’s worth every penny:)
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi fxgps,
Thank you for joining the thread! Your real time system sounds VERY interesting. I’m assuming that it doesn’t give you similar data as the cot report, so tell me, what is it exactly?
The cot report is delayed, true, but (!) who cares, if you are a swing trader for example? It really doesn’t matter that much. Of course, I hope one day we will have cot report daily, or even better, real time!
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi Dunstan,
ok, thanks a lot!
Have a great Friday
well, it’s an orderbook system, created for hedgefunds. in short, it analyzes the orderbook and trades upon it. that’s what makes it consistent.
the timeframe doesn’t matter. it makes hardly any difference if you wait two hours for your 200 pip winner or two days, same with losses. you have to let your winners run and cut your losers short anyway.
the point is that 95% of the traders out there (especially the retail traders) make trading decisions based upon wrong information and bad (or at least delayed) data. and that’s why they lack consistency.
Hi fxgps,
In my experience, the cot report really helps you measure the stresses in markets. The market is not only traded by hedge funds… the cot report shows positions of all main Trader categories. That’s something extra. How else would you know for example that large speculators in Rough Rice built up such large positions (Short) that they have never held in their entire history (cot history)? That is information that you can get from the report, it is value.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% /
Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher)
Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
What a beautiful extreme we have here:) Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all:) For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% /
COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% /
Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally:)
Soybeans
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme /
Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% /
This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit.
USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say:) This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% /
The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels.
Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme /
The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here!
RBOB Gasoline
COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme /
The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 43%, SS – 28% /
COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 18%, LS – 84% /
The cot change signal is present: a large, bullish signal. Would have been nicer, if we could see it a bit earlier:) --> prices have already gone up significantly last week. Is there room for more rally? The longer term picture looks more bearish, so it may be a bit riskier to expect further rises… To be honest, I think it’s simply best, if we look towards other markets, where the signs are more clear.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 150, LS – 158 report COT extreme /
The extreme is relatively large (could be much larger) and at a level, where for the last two occasions, prices reacted to the signal. It is a bullish picture.
Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 127 report COT extreme /
I find this market to be very interesting, because the cot report is bearish, although prices are low… If we look at a much longer chart, we can find much larger bearish cot extremes, so if prices start to go higher, there would be room for the extreme to get larger too, thus we could reach a top, where the extreme would seem normal.
All the best,
Dunstan
Just found your thread and it looks interesting!
A question. Do you follow other COT indicators or just the COT Index?
Hi BBalazs,
I’m glad you have found us:)
If you read through my very first posts, you will find all the tools that I use for cot analysis. COT Index is a tool that measures extremes in the market, similarly to the cot extreme indicator. I also like to look at the changes in Traders positions from week to week.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, SS – 44% /
COT Extreme / C – 49 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot change signal is negative, Small Speculators extreme situation also… Could we see further decline in prices?
Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 345 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is huge, close to all time levels. This is definitely a warning that prices may not be able to continue their rise for too long. Let’s get prepared for a drop in prices.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
We have reached a cot extreme level where the last two times prices bottomed out and we could see price rally develop afterwards. This is absolutely amongst the possible outcome of this current cot signal.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 35, SS – 58% /
The picture is bullish. The large change in Trader’s position, the relative cot extreme here and the more visible, large cot extreme in the Dow support further rally.
Orange Juice
COT Extreme / C – 294, LS – 294 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme in orange juice is unquestionably large and showing a very bullish picture. Signals were nice and effective in this market, so I’d say we can really use this signal and consider a long trade.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 184, LS – 180 report COT extreme /
In contrary to OJ, here the extreme is only large in relative terms. We do see much greater extremes in the past, so it’s a bit difficult to tell, whether or not this extreme is capable of stopping the recent decline or not. It may be a wise idea to analyze other energy markets and taking into account the correlation between them.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hello Dunstan,
I’m following your analysis for more than year and seems valuable for me.
Could you please advsie me how you see actual gold and silver market ?
It seems for me that price become attractive for the long time run.
Would be glad to have your view for the market.
Wish you great trading!
Best regards
Zbigniew
Hi Zbigniew,
I’m glad to hear that you have found value in my thread.
Let me give you my view on silver and gold as you requested:
Gold
If you look at the chart I have attached, a few weeks ago we had a relative cot extreme that managed to push prices a bit higher. This positive move could not last for too long, last week we witnessed a heavy drop in prices.
In general, the picture is definitely more bullish: all major participants are close to their bullish cot extremes, if you look at small speculators they are net short at the moment --> they are pessimistic about the market (always a bullish signal)-
The problem is timing… Right now, we do not have an all time or close to all time cot extreme situation, which would give us an obvious signal. This decline we are in could easily continue (and in my opinion, will continue) for a few more weeks, months before prices start to stabilize.
Silver
The picture in Silver is of course very similar to Gold, due to the natural correlation between the two markets. Here also we can talk about a more bullish picture from the cot report’s point of view, although small speculators are not bearish – but hey, they’ve only been bearish once in the entire cot history (1995), so this really doesn’t mean anything:)
Similarly to Gold, I can only speculate how long this decline can go on.
Let me bring in a new “perspective” here, the USD Index, which may be helpful to us… We mustn’t forget the pretty obvious fact about commodities: they are measured in dollars. The USD is in very strong rally mode right now, so we may want to analyze it in order to speculate on other markets (like gold and silver in our example).
If you look at the USD Index chart, you can see that we have a pretty significant cot extreme in the market, bearish of course. I’d say that once the USD starts declining, we should expect it to have a positive effect on metals.
I hope this short analysis was helpful to you.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 38 /
It’s really only the cot change signal that can affect prices now and of course downwards: we do not have a cot extreme situation at the moment. The last major extreme was the bullish one a few weeks ago and as you can see, it still in effect.
S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – 317 report, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Small Speculators being all time optimistic about the market is always a warning sign:)
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 185, LS – 181 report COT extreme /
Any questions here? 
The extreme has been present for a few weeks now and we can see that prices last week managed to rally nicely, so we may have the confirmation needed think seriously about further rallies in natural gas.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 27 /
Ok, the change was large, it may draw prices lower in the next few days… What I’m more interested is the long term picture. Prices are high, but we don’t see any indication from the report that we should expect the end of the rally. If you look at small specs here in the Dow, you can see how pessimistic they are about further rallies… I think that’s just a good evidence for us that supports a bullish picture.
Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 296 report COT extreme /
Don’t miss out the opportunity lying here! The bullish cot extreme is present and it is unquestionably large. As you can see on the chart, OJ has reacted nicely to cot extreme signals. I think it can be a wonderful trade.
New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 125, SS - 334 report COT extreme /
Wow, another great market with a beautiful signal! All major participants of the market hold extremely large positions and similarly to OJ, judging by the past, the market is likely going to react to the signal.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hello Friend,
where have you gone ?
Hope all is fine at your end.