The US dollar climbed higher against the Euro and the Swiss franc during the past couple of sessions. The USDCHF pair is one of the best performers, as it is following a classic bullish trend line the hourly timeframe. Later today, during the NY session, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will be published. The Forex market is expecting a minor decline from the last reading of 9.95 to 9.00. Moreover, the head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas J. Jordan is also scheduled for a speech later today. Both these events have the potential to move the USDCHF pair in the near term.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which acted as a barrier for the US dollar sellers on several occasions. The highlighted trend line holds a lot of importance, as the 100 hour MA is also moving along the trend line. So, if the USDCHF pair moves lower from the current levels, then it might find support around the 0.9300 area. The mentioned level is also coinciding with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9194 low to 0.9335 high. A break below the same might call for a test of the 200 hour MA, which is sitting around the 50% fib level.
On the upside, initial resistance is around the last high of 0.9335. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 0.9360 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as it is trading above the highlighted trend line.
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The US dollar weakened recently against a few major currencies, including the Japanese yen. The FOMC meeting minutes came as a disappointment for the US dollar as it was on the dovish side whereas the market was expecting hawkish. There were some important releases lined up in Japan. The Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total was released by the Ministry of Finance, which was above the forecast. The expectation was of ¥-1,691.0B, but it came in at ¥-1,177.5B. Moreover, the Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance was also released, which came in at ¥-406.124B, down from the last revised reading of ¥-620.667B. Overall, the data was on the positive side, and helped the USDJPY pair.
There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached after the release. The downside was swift after the events and the pair moved towards the 118.42 low. The pair even cleared the 100 hour moving average, which is likely to act as a resistance for the pair in the short term. The pair is currently correcting higher and moving towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 119.40 high to 118.42 low, which also coincides with the 100 hour MA. So, the 118.80 level might act as a resistance for the pair moving ahead.
If the USDJPY pair moves lower from the current levels, then the last low of 118.42 might come into play again where we could witness a reaction.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it is trading below the 100 hour MA.
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The US dollar corrected a bit lower against a few major currencies including the Euro and the British pound. However, it gained traction against the Swiss franc and the Canadian dollar. There are many releases lined up today during the NY session including the consumer confidence and the services PMI. The most important one is the speech from the fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. A lot of volatility is expected around her speech and we can witness a lot of swing moves in the US dollar. The USDCHF pair is sitting around an important level, which means that if the US dollar gains traction, then the pair might rocket higher.
There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which might act as a pivot zone for the pair. The pair failed on many occasions around the mentioned trend line so there is a chance of a move towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9372 low to 0.9524 high. However, the most important support is around the 50% fib level, which is coinciding with the 100 hour simple moving average. A break above the highlighted trend line might call for more gains in the pair, but if it fails to break higher it might head back towards the last swing low.
On the upside, a break above the highlighted trend line might take the pair towards the 0.9550 resistance area, followed by the 0.9580 level.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.
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The US dollar traded lower to some extent against most major currencies, including the Aussie dollar and the Euro. GOLD was also not far behind. It was seen trading lower ahead of the Yellen speech, but soon after her speech it recovered ground and traded higher. GOLD buyers managed to clear an important resistance area, which means there is a chance of more gains in the near term. The Fed’s Yellen is also scheduled for her second speech today. So, let’s see how the dollar trades in the coming sessions. Moreover, the number of new home sales will be released by the US Census Bureau. The market is expecting a decline in January 2015, which if fulfilled might help GOLD.
There was a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which was cleared recently by buyers. Currently, GOLD is heading towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1236 high to $1188 low. The mentioned fib level holds a lot of importance in the near term, as the 200 hour moving average is also sitting around the same area. So, there is a chance of a correction in the short term, which might find support around the 100 hour MA. Moreover, the broken trend line might also act as a support moving ahead.
A break above the 200 hour MA could ignite sharp gains in GOLD, which could take it towards the $1220 resistance area where sellers might appear.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it is trading above the 100 hour MA.
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GOLD dived sharply towards $1195 level recently and managed to gain buyers around the mentioned level. It corrected higher, but failed to move above an important resistance area. The recent price action suggests that GOLD buyers might make one more attempt to take prices above the $1210 level. It would be interesting to see how GOLD sellers react if it moves higher from the current levels. Later today, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released by Markit Economics. The market is expecting the US services PMI to climb from 54.2 to 54.8. Let us see how the outcome shapes and whether it affects GOLD in the near term or not.
There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which acted as a hurdle earlier and might continue to stall the upside in the short term. GOLD recently managed to pierce the 200 hour moving average, which can be considered as a positive sign. However, there is a major thing to note as the 100 hour MA is sitting right at the highlighted trend line, which might act as a barrier in the near term. Not only this, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1223 high to $1195 low is also around the same area. A break above the same might call for more gains in the near term.
If GOLD moves lower from the current levels, then the $1200 level might act as a support, followed by the recent low of $1195.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GOLD as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
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The British pound was seen correcting higher against the Japanese yen, but every time the GBPJPY pair made an attempt it found sellers. There is a major resistance on the way up for the pair which is protecting upside in the pair. There was a release in Japan today during the Asian session i.e. the Japanese Leading Economic Index was released by the Cabinet Office. The end result was not a positive one, as the Leading Economic Index registered a reading of 105.1 in January 2015. This was a bit lower when we compare it with the last reading, which was pulled down from 105.6 to 105.3. Let us see whether the yen loses ground from here or not.
There is a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPJPY pair, which acted as a resistance for the pair every time it traded higher. The pair is currently consolidating just below the highlighted trend line. Moreover, the stated trend line also coincides with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 184.30 high to 182.36 low. A break above the mentioned resistance area could take the pair towards the 100 hour MA, which is sitting right at the 61.8% fib level. The hourly RSI is also around the 50 level suggesting a break is near moving ahead.
If GBPJPY pair moves lower from here, then the last low of 182.36 might act as a support, and if it break then a test of 182.00 level is likely.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPJPY pair as long as it is trading below the highlighted trend line.
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The Euro traded lower recently against the Japanese yen and tested the 130.60 support area where it found buyers. There was a major released lined up in Japan, as the Gross Domestic Product, which represents the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan was released by the Cabinet Office. The outcome was a bit higher than the market’s expectation, as the Japanese GDP gained by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2014, compared to the previous quarter of 2014. Moreover, the yearly change GDP was around 1.5%. The EURJPY pair was seen correcting higher after the release and currently heading towards an important resistance area.
There was a crucial support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was breached by the Euro sellers. The pair is now moving back towards the highlighted trend line where it might find sellers. Initial resistance is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 133.58 high to 130.69 low. However, a major barrier for the Euro buyers is around the broken trend line. One interesting point to note here is the fact that the hourly RSI is also approaching the 50 level, which means the pair is heading towards a pivot area in the near term.
If EURJPY pair fails to break higher and moves back lower, then initial support can be seen around the last low of 130.69. Any further losses might take it towards the 130.00 support area.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURJPY pair as long as it is trading below the broken trend line.
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There US dollar busted higher against a few major currencies, including the Euro and the British pound. However, there was not much momentum against the Japanese yen. In fact the USDJPY pair was recently seen struggling around a critical resistance area. Is it currently moving lower and there is chance that it might continue to head lower. There are a few important releases lined up in the US today, including the retail sales report representing the total receipts of retail stores published by the US Census Bureau. Let us see how the outcome shapes up as the forecast is of a 0.3% gain in February 2015, compared to the last month.
There is a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which acted as a barrier time and again for the pair. Recently, the pair failed around the 121.60 resistance area and currently moving lower. There is a possibility that the pair might head towards the 100 hour simple moving average, which is sitting around the 121.10 support area. The 121.00 level holds a lot of importance in the near term as the US dollar buyers might try to defend downside around the mentioned area. A break below the same might set the pair for a move towards the last swing low of 120.84.
If the USDJPY pair moves higher from here, then the 121.60-70 area might act as a resistance. However, the most critical resistance is around the highlighted trend line.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair around the highlighted trend line as long as it stays below the same.
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The Euro sellers continued to gain pace not only against the US dollar, but also against the Japanese yen. The EURJPY pair traded below the 127.00 support area recently where the Euro sellers were seen struggling. There is a chance that the EURJPY pair might recover in the near term, but the upside might be limited considering the amount of bearish pressure is on the EURJPY pair. There are no major releases lined up in the Euro zone and Japan today. So, the pair might trade based on the market sentiment in the short term. We need to see how the sellers react if the Euro manages to move higher from the current or a bit lower levels.
There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which is likely to act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead. There is one more point to note is that there was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which was breached recently and opened the doors for more downsides in the near term. Now, both the trend lines are coinciding around the 128.00-20 resistance area, which holds a lot of importance. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 131.86 high to 126.89 low is also sitting around the same area, which increases the importance of the 128.20 level.
If the EURJPY pair fails to move higher and trades back lower, then the last low of 126.89 level might come into play again.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURJPY pair as long as it stays below the 128.20 level.
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GOLD struggle continued this week, as there is a major risk event coming up today. The fed interest rate decision will be announced, which as the potential to cause a lot of action in GOLD. There are several resistances on the way up for GOLD, which mean the chances of it moves lower is a lot higher than moving upwards. GOLD needs a solid reason to trade higher, and fed can spark it if they stay away from hinting about a possible rate hike soon. Let us see how it trades in the coming sessions. There is a major support on the downside around $1140-50 where sellers might struggle moving ahead.
There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which acted as a hurdle for GOLD many times. There is one more obstacle on the upside, as the 100 hour simple moving averages is sitting below the trend line. So, if GOLD moves higher, then initial resistance is around 100 MA, followed by the trend line. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from $1170 high to $1142 low is also aligned around the highlighted trend line. So, in short it won’t be easy for GOLD buyers to take it higher in the near term. Let us see how it trades moving ahead.
If GOLD moves lower from the current levels, then the most important support is at $1140, which if breached might open the doors for a test of $1120.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in GOLD as long as it stays below the stated trend line.
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The US dollar was crushed after the fed interest rate decision. The USDJPY pair traded lower and fell below the 120.00 support area. The pair later managed to recover ground earlier today. During the Asian session, there were some releases lined up in Japan. The Japanese Securities investment was released by Ministry of Finance representing bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market’s currency. It posted a reading of ¥551.1B, and the Japanese Foreign investment in Japan stocks came in at ¥244.3B. The Japanese yen was seen correcting lower, and as result the USDJPY pair moved back higher. However, the upside might be limited moving ahead.
There was a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached after the fed rate decision. The pair fell sharply and tested the 119.30-40 support area where the US dollar buyers managed to hold the downside. The pair is now trading back higher and breached the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 121.48 high to 119.29 low. However, on the upside, the broken trend line might act as a hurdle for the pair, which is sitting right at the 76.4% fib level. Let us see how the US dollar sellers react once the pair reaches there.
If the NZDUSD pair moves lower from here, then a retest of the 120.00 area is possible in the near term. A break below the same might call for a move towards 119.40.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it stays below the 121.00 level.
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The US dollar was seen losing lust during the past couple of days. There are some important signs emerging, which suggests that the US dollar might be setting up for a correction. The USDCHF pair is one of the examples, as the pair broke a crucial support area on the higher timeframe calling for more downsides in the near term. There is an important release lined up today in the US, as the Consumer Price Index will be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market’s expectation is of a decrease by 0.1% in February 2015, compared to the last month. We need to see if there is a decline posted or not. Any major decrease might ignite losses in the US dollar.
There was a critical bullish trend line formed on the daily chart of the USDCHF pair, which was breached by the US dollar sellers recently. Furthermore, there were some bearish candles formed on the daily chart, which suggests that the pair might be heading lower in the near term. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.8300 low to 1.011 high. However, the most important point is that the 100-day simple moving average is sitting just below the current price. So, let us see how buyers react if the pair tests the same.
If the USDCHF pair moves higher from the current levels, then a retest of the broken trend line is possible in the near term.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDCHF pair as long as it stays below the broken trend line.
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The US dollar weakness helped GOLD to some extent recently, as it gained and traded above the $1190 level. However, it was seen struggling around the $1195 level where sellers managed to contain the upside. However, there are some support levels on the downside as well, which area likely to act as a catalyst for GOLD in the near term. Later today, the US Durable Goods Orders will be released by the US Census Bureau. The forecast is of a 0.4% rise in February 2015, compared to the last month. If the outcome fails to meet the expectation, then there is a chance of GOLD gaining ground in the near term.
There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which acted as a support earlier and might act as a hurdle moving ahead. Currently, it is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1169 low to $11194 high. Moreover, the same trend line is sitting just below the same area. So, buyers might step in and take the prices higher in the near term. Furthermore, the hourly RSI is just around the 50 level, and if it breaks higher, then more gains are possible moving ahead. On the upside, a break above the $1195 level might set GOLD for a test if the $1200 level.
On the downside, the highlighted trend line holds a lot of importance, as a break below the same might ignite losses in the short term.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it stays above the stated trend line.
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The Euro was seen trading lower against the Japanese yen, as buyers struggled to take the shared currency higher. There are several hurdles on the way up for the EURJPY pair, which prevented upside in the pair every time it traded higher. Today, the Japanese Industrial Production, which measures the outputs of the Japanese factories and mines was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The report pointed out weakness, as the Japanese industrial production registered a decrease of 3.4% in February 2014, compared to the preceding month in which there was an increase of 3.7%. The yen was seen losing some ground after the release.
There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which stalled the upside every time the pair moved higher. The pair recently failed around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 131.42 high to 129.01 low. Moreover, the pair also failed around the 200 hour simple moving average, which acted as a barrier for the pair. The hourly RSI is also below the 50 level, which means the Euro sellers are here to stay and might cause more losses in the short term. There is a chance that the pair might make one more attempt to break the trend line, and it would be interesting to see whether it can do it or not.
On the downside, the most important support is around the last low of 129.00 where buyers might appear.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURJPY pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.
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The US dollar was seen trading lower against the Japanese yen, and as a result the USDJPY pair moved lower and tested the 119.40 levels. There was a solid bearish pressure noted on the pair, which took it lower in the short term. Earlier during the Asian session, the Japanese Securities investment representing bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market’s currency and detailing the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan was released by Ministry of Finance. It posted a reading of ¥1,017.2B, compared the last reading of ¥765.5B. The USDJPY pair reacted to the downside after the release.
There is a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which is currently hold the downside in the near term. The most important point is that the pair is struggling to clear a critical barrier, which is at a confluence of 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 120.32 high to 119.41 low is also around the same area. In short, there is a major at 119.65, which might cause downside reaction in USDJPY. If the pair breaks lower, then a test of the 119.00 level is likely in the near term where buyers could appear.
On the upside, if the pair manages to settle above the 100 hour SMA, then a move towards the 120.00 level would be on the cards if buyers gain control.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as the pair is below the 100 MA.
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The British pound struggle continued against the Swiss franc, as the latter one gained traction against some other currencies as well including the Euro. The GBPCHF pair broke an important support area recently and traded lower to test 1.4190. There is immense bearish pressure on the GBPCHF pair, which is likely to continue in the near term. Today, the forex market might be quiet due to the Easter holidays, but there is a major release lined up in the US today. So, we can witness a lot of swing moves in the US dollar pairs. Let us see how the market reacts in the low liquid session.
There was a major bullish trend line formed on the 4-hour chart of the GBPCHF pair, which was breached recently and the pair traded lower. The pair also managed to clear the 1.4200 support area and currently consolidating around the mentioned levels. There is a chance that the pair might spike to test the broken trend lone, which is likely to act as a resistance in the near term. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4452 high to 1.4191 low is also around the same area. One important bearish sign to note that the RSI is well below the 50 level and could encourage sellers moving ahead.
If the GBPCHF pair moves lower from the current levels, then the last low of 1.4190 might act as a short-term support.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPCHF pair as long as the pair is below the broken trend line.
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The US dollar managed to recover most of its lost ground against the Swiss franc. The USDCHF pair traded higher and cleared an important resistance area to set new daily highs. There is a release lined up in Switzerland today, as the Foreign Currency Reserves which are the foreign currency deposits and bonds held by Swiss National Bank will be released. Let us see how the reserves are in March 2015, compared the last reading of 509.3B. Any major disappointment might push the USDCHF pair higher in the short term. There are a couple of releases lined up in the US as well today, which could impact USDCHF.
There was a crucial bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which stalled the upside on many occasions but finally the US dollar buyers managed to gain traction and broke the stated trend line. However, the pair was seen struggling around the 100 hourly simple moving average, which caused a downside reaction in USDCHF. The pair corrected lower, and currently finding bids around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9479 low to 0.9604 high. The mentioned fib level is also coinciding with the broken trend line, which presents a chance of a move back higher moving ahead. On the upside, the 100 and 200 hourly SMA’s remain key for more gains.
If the USDCHF pair moves lower from the current levels, then a break below the 38.2% level might take it towards 0.9520.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as the pair is above the broken trend line.
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The US dollar traded higher recently against most major currencies, including the Japanese yen as the FOMC meeting minutes were on the positive side and lifted the dollar buyer’s sentiment. The USDJPY pair traded higher and surged above the 120.00 level and looks set for more gains in the near term. Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims, which helps in measuring the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting it to increase from the last reading of 268K to 285K. Let us see how the US dollar reacts if this expectation is met moving ahead.
There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached during the Asian session. There was a release in Japan as well, which ignited a minor downside reaction in the Japanese yen. However, the pair stalled around the last high of 120.40 and is currently correcting lower. The broken trend line is acting as a support to the pair and we need to see how long it can protect the downside. Moreover, the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 119.63 low to 120.37 high. So, in short there is a major support around the 120.20-10 levels, which might cause an upside reaction in the pair moving ahead.
If the USDJPY pair breaks higher and moves above the last high of 120.40, then it could test the 120.80-90 levels in the near term.
Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDJPY pair as long as it is above the 120.10-00 levels.
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The US dollar was seen weakening against the Swiss franc during the past session, as the USDCHF pair traded lower and tested the 0.9750 support area. The pair managed to hold the mentioned level and it looks like correcting higher in the near term. There is a major release lined up today, as the US retail sales data suggesting the total receipts of retail stores will be released by the US Census Bureau. The market is expecting the US retail sales to rise by 1.1% in March 2015. Let us see if the expectation is fulfilled or not in the near term. A miss might ignite losses in USDCHF.
There were a couple of trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair. First one was a bullish trend line, which was breached recently to open the doors for more downsides in the near term. Second, there is a support trend line, which prevented a slide in USDCHF around 0.9750. Currently, the pair is correcting higher and trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.9861 high to 0.9754 low. There is a major resistance forming around the 50% fib retracement level, which is also coinciding with the broken bullish trend line. So, the USDCHF pair might struggle around the 0.9800-10 levels in the near term where the US dollar sellers could defend upsides.
If the USDCHF pair moves lower from the current levels, then initial support is around the second support trend line.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDCHF pair as long as it is below the broken trend line.
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GOLD recently traded higher, but failed to clear a major barrier around the $1200 level. It is currently correcting lower and looks set for more losses in the near term. There was a major release during the Asian session, as the Chinese GDP was published. The outcome was as expected with a rise of 7% in the first quarter of 2015. This helped GOLD buyers to gain some ground, but it is still facing several resistances on the way up. Today, in the US, the Industrial Production measuring the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing will be released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Let us see how it can impact GOLD price.
There is a confluence of two bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which stalled the upside earlier and currently acting as a hurdle. It would be very important to see if buyers can manage to clear the highlighted trend lines or not. One more critical thing to note is that the 100 hourly simple moving average is above the same trend lines, which means there is a solid resistance forming around the $1195-$1200 levels. A break above the same might set GOLD for a move towards the 200 hour SMA. Alternatively, a failure to break higher could ignite a down-move in the short term.
If GOLD moves lower from the current levels, then initial support is around the $1188 level, followed by $1184.
Overall, one might consider selling rallies in GOLD as long as it is below both the bearish trend lines on 4H chart.
Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker
