Balls Of Steel - trading volatile pairs

Trading Discussion
1381

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR TRADING SIDEWAYS – MARKET TALK
24 July 2016, 23:24
2024 GMT [Dow Jones] The New Zealand dollar is likely “to be stuck around US$0.7000” on Monday, says Imre Speizer, senior market strategist at Westpac. However, he says there’s “potential for a sustained break lower given monetary policy direction”. Late last week the RBNZ said the New Zealand dollar was too high, and signaled more interest rate cuts are likely this year. The kiwi is currently trading at US$0.6991, having ranged between US$0.6980 and US$0.7017 in offshore trading. There is no local data due out today and Speizer says there’s “not much to ruffle feathers from the global data calendars today”. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

1382

GbpJpy long @ 136.59 massive overnight drop seems to have bottomed out and is slowly creeping upwards.

1383

Yen crosses are depreciating across the board as an anticipation of the BoJ rate decision later this week… This is why the Nzd/Jpy has dropped further overnight whereas the Nzd/Usd has risen… The Kiwi move up between 5am and 6am today remains wholly unexplained, yet it is genuine because in the Kiwi futures it was accompanied by huge buying volume, although that volume has faded since, which explains why the Kiwi has stalled again.

1384

Closed -78 pips

1385

Stop in place above be

1386

:frowning:

This pesky Kiwi just needs a sparkle of Wheeler magic :slight_smile:

1387

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR HOLDS UP VS GREENBACK – MARKET TALK
27 July 2016, 23:25
2025 GMT - The New Zealand dollar took the Fed statement “in its stride,” say ANZ strategists. “Kiwi remains fairly well bid despite the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the US economy and the weaker Australian dollar,” they add. The kiwi is at US$0.7072, having ranged from US$0.7011-70 in offshore trading. There is no local data out Thursday. ([email protected])

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

1388

Nice post, Eddie…

A frustrating outcome, given that in the first 5m of the FOMC statement today,

the Kiwi/Dollar (I was watching the chart) posted a big old red candle, pushing

below 0.70 with gusto…

Meh

:S

How are you positioned today?

1389

3 long trades, GbpJpy, UsdJpy, UsdCad and one short Eurusd.

Mixed week so far, nothing worth noting really

1390

I like it

Mind you, do you think the BoJ tonight can really deliver?

I expect a big Yen appreciation…

1391

I hope to God you are not long Yen pairs!

Screenshot_2016-07-29-07-04-34.jpg394×700 30.9 KB

1392

Got out yesterday evening, 1 loss, 1 small win, nothing drastic.
Back in this morning, GbpJpy long 136.57

How about yourself?

1393

Screenshot_2016-07-29-07-18-30.jpg394×700 41.6 KB

We all know that QE is a broken record,

and it is failing in Europe as in Japan:

so why do the markets react so strongly

when, truly, there is little more that central banks

can do?

Still, my NZD/JPY short is at +111,

and it is what I expected, but I still

get a puzzles reaction by commentary

such as “the markets expected more”:

hell, how is this not enough?

“The central bank will double its annual purchase of exchange traded funds to 6tn yen ($57bn; £43bn) from the current 3.3tn yen.”

So the Yen rallied when the BoJ introduced

negative rates in January, and the Euro rallied when

the ECB expanded its QE in December '15; now

the Yen rallied when the BoJ announced QE expansion…

Do we see a pattern? Yes, it is NOT WORKING!

Amen for the Fed, showing the path to

normalisation: the end of QE will be the best

medicine for economies across the world.

Happy Yen-pairs shorting!

1394

Oh , good !

Is the GbpJpy on a dip? I think I will jut stay put on my Yen short, as it has potential…maybe not today but with the new trading week it could really go places…Aiming for 70.

Good luck with your long (intraday?)

1395

Seems to be silly season lately. I’m pretty non-committal on most pairs at the moment aka no real clue what’s going on. I’ve just been dipping in and out of the DAX and DOW for the past couple of weeks - mostly buying intraday dips. Long live the 3.30pm EST ramp!

1396

Closed this GbpJpy for -50 pips.

Market seems to be behaving strangely lately, either that or im just having a bad run. Cant catch a cold this week and have wiped out the previous 3 weeks profits (actually ended the month a staggering 39 cents up!), so thats me done until Monday unless something unexpected happens.

Have a good weekend all :slight_smile:

1397

Thank you Eddie, and you!

Next week is the BoE rate decision, but I do not expect much from them - I just do not buy that they

will go negative… besides, it may not do much for the Pound, and I would love to see the media

going into a head-spin if the Pound rose…

So, if the correlation has returned to a healthy inversion, should the Pound significantly rise then

we should see the FTSE100 fall, correct?

Who knows.

1398

I’m concerned about Thursday’s BoE meeting.
Everyone seems to think that a rate cut to 0.25% is a certainty. That worries me, when ‘experts’ all lean the same way, in fact I wouldnt be the least bit surprised to see it stay at 0.50%. The only strong reason I can see for cutting is that since its been hinted at, a failure to deliver would not be taken well.
One thing for sure, markets will price in a rate cut so, if there is one dont expect a windfall. However is there isnt one, or if its less than a 0.25% cut, expect Sterling to drop.

1399

As was previously said on this thread, Eddie, it is silly season, so God knows what the markets will do… .

I just re-entered NzdJpy short as it broke below 0.74…Cad/Jpy looks attractive to the downside, following Crude Oil’s drop below $40, but I will leave that in favour of the Kiwi-Yen…

What is your Pound exposure, if any?

1400

Just the 1 Pound trade, short on GbpAud