Is the next stock market crash imminent?

Thanks Jake,

great strategy…

I am still a forex person, just dipping into indices, and have no clue about options (maybe one day,

once I have enough capital).

I agree with gold, although it is at a channel top and retreating, so I may buy at lower prices

for the next leg up past the 1.30-1.33 area… Not sure about silver, as very expensive to buy

with my broker (37.00 per pip), so I will leave that one alone even if it has great potential.

I am confident of my correction play and have plenty of time, and as you can see from my

avatar, I am poised and enlightened by the waiting game, ready for the starts to align.

:slight_smile:

thats a great strategy. the big guys do it that way. but you have to stick to a low leverage in order to be able to survive the contras of your positions since its impossible to pinpoint a crash in its timing accurately enough. hard for a retail trader with limited capital especialy hard to have the patience to sit tight on its positions while waiting for the bang to happen.

I know, it’s crazy, I guess I mean that business cycle theory and central bank intervention are distorting

fundamentals beyond recognition…

or…

this is the ‘new normal’?

Absolutely,

when aiming for such wide swings, you are not going to aim for a 5m-chart entry level haha :slight_smile:

unfortunately im starting to believe that its the new normal and we are running for a 20-30 years huge cicle of flat markets like we used to have after the great depression ranging into the 1960irs. its aswell connected to the demographic change which is happening in the western world

hey here the only profet that has always been right 100% in the long run on stock market and indices!!!

the true guru from the 1980ies!!

this is all you need to know to be sucessfull in trading stocks, indexes and commodities

Haha… Peterma knows this one very well :slight_smile:

Lol, I’ve been singing that since mention of the ‘perfect storm’ that was being forecast back last year.

I remember Lexy’s post about shoe eating on the first page of this thread, but still Yazz would sing louder.

But, for the first time in many years the lyrics just don’t seem to fit my sense of outlook.

I was positive stocks this week only for two reasons, first that everyone was selling and secondly that most people expected Carney’s input and that he would wait until a reasonable bounce in cable.

But long term, here is where the difficulty exists, UK stocks are a much greater gamble, their only hope lies in the US stocks and the possibility that the Fed will hint at not hiking in the manner that the market has been expecting.

As things stands, although there is short term gain for many UK businesses, including myself, the longer term outlook is extremely uncertain - I don’t believe I have ever faced such uncertainty in almost 40 years of doing business.

Traders are often advised that to trade without a plan is unwise, I really believe that for politicians this same rule applies.

Nice post, Peterma…

I read today’s analysis of the bonds and debt allocation by central banks on ZeroHedge

The Greatest Misallocation of Capital (BUBBLE) in Financial History | Zero Hedge

and i think to myself…

We Are All F*cked

Btw, I’m not being negative, I’m an entrepreneur, I look to the positive in negative situations, create when there seems to be nothing.

The big difference today is that the trading environment/rules are being dictated by politicians who seem to have an agenda outside of economics.

On the one hand leading UK pro brexit leaders are saying we should wait until 2020 before enacting article 50, on the other side the EU trade commissioner is saying that article 50 must be triggered immediately and that upon such enacting, lawfully, only exit terms can be negotiated.

Seems she is technically correct, it is illegal to negotiate a trade agreement with a current EU member, we must wait until the UK exits, only then can there legally be negotiations, on a third country basis, on a trade agreement.

In the interim all trade between the UK and EU will be on WTO basis.

The most recent such agreement was with Canada, took over 7 years to complete and has yet to be ratified, likely another 2 years.

PipMe, I am lucky in that I can easily relocate to an EU country, it’s the guys that are embracing the change that I have most sympathy for - imagine that they actually believe the politicians :slight_smile:

You are right…

It is a mess…

It’s tragic…in my country (Italy) taxes+bills have gone up exponentially in a very short time…I think in the region of 400%… People become desperate and business owners commit suicide… What sort of life is that?

Yeah, the uglier side capitalism perhaps.

Ireland suffered similarly in recent years, thankfully they pulled themselves from the pit so I suppose there is always light at the end of the tunnel.

I am often surprised at how opportunity seems to appear in the midst of gloom, so my hope is that such will happen yet again, all we can do in the meantime is wait and see :slight_smile:

Yes, and I remember how the PM came out saying that Ireland was Britain’s closest trading neigjbour etc
so there would be good will and a juicy bailout handout…

British taxpayers funded Ireland’s £14bn bail-out - Telegraph

The Celtic Tiger was handed a milk bowl…

…its unemployment rate

is still above 20%, so it is

not exactly past recessionary

risks…


Yep, what he actually was saying was that it was in the UK’s best interest to loan money outside of what was termed a ‘bailout’ by the EU.

There was no handout and far from juicy, as the Irish people will testify, it was money that required to be repaid, both to the UK and the ECB - with interest.

The reason for the PM’s action was the exposure to the Irish market risk by UK banks, the reason for the ECB forced ‘bailout’ was the exposure of the German banks - many in Ireland were pushing for bondholder write offs, the view was that as gamblers they took the risk - capitalism rules dictated that the Irish taxpayer must pay, and they did through severe austerity measures, many of which remain today.

In Oct 2013 HM treasury reported that Ireland had missed two payments on two days, apparently the payment day in both cases fell on a Sunday.

By that same date, the treasury reported that they had received interest of £67,410,122.43 - on a paid out loan of 3.2bn.

In fairness, the government reduced the rate of interest which reflected the lowering of rates in the market.

There were no milk bowls, just good business on both sides, not so sure I can say the same of the ECB.

Edit: the Telegraph headline can be misleading, Ulster Bank was very heavily involved in the Irish market and notched up massive debt, the UK nationalized RBS and by doing so took on Ulster Bank’s problems being a subsidiary of RBS.

They are still selling off their portfolio, one headline from the Telegraph in Dec 2015 referenced ‘RBS sells off 1.6bn of Irish real estate loans’.

Just like the Celtic Tiger, they are making a comeback:

RBS sells £1.6bn of Irish real estate loansrbs, royal - Telegraph

Thanks Peterma,

my rather vague memory of the facts hung hazily to my mind, like foggy dew…

The Irish people fought colonisation with weapons; now that colonisation is done with austerity, what weapons can people use to defend themselves?

A.crash may be a business opportunity, but for how many?

I have just been watching a film, Charlie’s Journey, about the Aboriginals in modern Australia…it was utterly depressing.

I don’t know what the hell is wrong with the world, but sure as hell.sometimes I think.if we humans disappeared the Earth and all.its creatures would say ‘good riddens’.

And with that cheerful thought, let the new trading week begin…

…and to the North American peeps, happy Independence Day tomorrow…

Why the FTSE 100 at a post-Brexit high is not necessarily good news | Business News | News | The Independent

“The Dominoes Are Fallling”: Three Largest UK Property Funds Freeze $12 Billion In Assets, More To Come | Zero Hedge