Sunday Breakout Strategy

[phil838]

Originally Posted by s050399b

Long side is coming~~ maybe it will even out! good luck!

Long side was a loser for me... by one pip! Those of you with different brokers that didn't get stopped out should be well above the 2x breakeven point and approaching the profit area.

Good luck to you all!!

[FurTrader]

Originally Posted by phil838

The Sunday candle has closed! Here are the trades for this week...

Long at 1.5947
Short at 1.5899

This week's trades have a stoploss of 38 pips (I rounded up to 40), and a takeprofit of 240 pips.

If you got your orders set right at the close of the candle you should already be in a short trade. If not it's only up +15 pips, not too late to jump in.

Remember to change the SL to breakeven at +80 pips!

Phil why is stop loss 38pips/40rounded up?
isn't 1.5947 - 1.5899 = 0.0048 / 48 pips? (rounded up 50pips)

and one more thing do u have messenger? i would like to chat with you more about your strategy

Thanks.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by FurTrader

Phil why is stop loss 38pips/40rounded up?
isn't 1.5947 - 1.5899 = 0.0048 / 48 pips? (rounded up 50pips)

and one more thing do u have messenger? i would like to chat with you more about your strategy

Thanks.

Because we enter at +10 pips above and below the high/low of the Sunday candle, but the stop loss is the high/low of the Sunday candle.

So the long trade would have entered at 1.5947 with a stoploss at 1.5909. 1.5947 - 1.5909 = 38 pips.

You could probably trade the system with the stoploss equal to the opposite entry point for simplicity. I doubt it would make much difference in the long run.

I don't use any type of messenger. I'm usually posting on several message boards about several different topics at once and hate getting interrupted by those things.

I'm more than happy to discuss anything here on the forums though.

[FurTrader]

Originally Posted by phil838

Because we enter at +10 pips above and below the high/low of the Sunday candle, but the stop loss is the high/low of the Sunday candle.

So the long trade would have entered at 1.5947 with a stoploss at 1.5909. 1.5947 - 1.5909 = 38 pips.

Thanks,i have another question... see my pic below, well i scaled the chart into 1H chart and see the 2 circled day,
the question is... which candles are the first trigger your entry?

Originally Posted by phil838

I don't use any type of messenger. I'm usually posting on several message boards about several different topics at once and hate getting interrupted by those things.

I'm more than happy to discuss anything here on the forums though.

hehehe i think i just bug you here

[phil838]

From your pic it looks like you have a time zone problem, FurTrader. The Sunday candle should cover the time period from 20:00GMT to 00:00GMT. Some brokers, such as mine, don't start their data feeds until 21:00 or 22:00, and that's fine. Volume is really low at these hours so it doesn't affect price much.

Here's a picture of the week on a 1 hour GMT based chart. The symbols are...

Red vertical lines: The Sunday Candles (my broker starts at 22:00GMT, so there are only two).
Orange horizontal lines: Entry points. Upper line triggers long trade, lower triggers short.
Light Blue horizontal lines: Stoplosses. Upper line stops out short trade, lower stops out long trade.
White Arrow: Candle that triggered the short trade.
Blue Arrow: Candle that stopped out the short trade.
Red Arrow: Candle that triggered the long trade.
Violet Arrow: Candle that broke even the long trade. (Trade went higher than 2x the Sunday range, so we moved the stoploss to break even.)






Let me know if you're still confused about anything and I'll try to clear it up.

This week was a loser, but that's no big deal. So far this year I've gotten 22 losers and only 6 winners!! But the risk/reward ratio on the winners is so high I'm up 918 pips. At 2% risk per trade that comes to an increase of 17.5% on my account balance so far this year, and the year's not even half over. Not bad for a system that only takes 15 minutes per week to manage.

[FurTrader]

Nice and clear i like your system nice and clear... this system is very good way to start i think...

[phil838]

Hi guys,

Someone sent me a PM asking why this system works. I though that was an important question so I'm posting my thoughts on it here as well.

First off, I'm not an economist or a statistician, this is just my educated guess as to what's at play here. If anyone else has any ideas feel free to share them.

If you look back in your charts, on any pair, you'll notice that the weekend gaps tend to be the places where trends begin and end a lot of the time. You'll also notice that the weekly highs and lows tend to happen on Mondays and Fridays. Here's a graph I borrowed (aka stole) from another forex site. It shows what day of the week the weekly high/low was on for 4 different pairs. The data was taken from 2008.



What this system is doing is basically betting on the fact that trends start on Mondays more than any other day of the week. By getting in on the break of the Sunday candle we're hopping on the trend right at the start. Does it always work... nope, but because we're getting in on the trend before the trend even exists we're making major profits when it does work!

Any thoughts or comments??

[s050399b]

I'm confused about pip value for a 10,000 lot


from here, Calculate Pip Values, it says:
(one pip, with proper decimal placement/currency exchange rate) x (Notional Amount) = pip value

0.0001 / 1.6161 * 10000 = 0.618773591



But from here, Pip Value Calculator, Pip Calculator, Pip Value Information
I put:
Account Currency = USD
Currency Pair = GBP/USD
Position = 10,000

It gives price of pip = $1





ETA:
I think one gives me in pound, and the latter is in USD

[nutrader]

Thanks for posting this strategy phill, it seem like a great system with very respectable returns for little effort, i understand all the the entry exit criteria's etc and followed last weeks trades (but didnt trade them). However i have a question. In your 1st post explaining the strategy rules you say move stop to break even once it has reached 2 X sunday candle range however on last weeks short you used 2 X initial stop loss which was 80 (2 X 40 = 80). If you had used 2 X sunday candle range as the rules suggest (30 pips X 2 = 60 pips) you would have broken even on the short.
Anyway i am keen to try it out. My 4hr sunday candle is good for the system. but for some reason my ATR (14) applied to the weekly chart does not match yours. you posted last weeks trades as having a PT of 240 pips meaning ATR was 480 however my ATR was reading between 580 & 600. i have not used this indicator before so i am not totally familiar with it. I am using pro real time charts & today my ATR is currently reading 591.
sorry if i am doing something wrong or have misunderstand something. would be grateful for any replies

[phil838]

Originally Posted by nutrader

Thanks for posting this strategy phill, it seem like a great system with very respectable returns for little effort, i understand all the the entry exit criteria's etc and followed last weeks trades (but didnt trade them). However i have a question. In your 1st post explaining the strategy rules you say move stop to break even once it has reached 2 X sunday candle range however on last weeks short you used 2 X initial stop loss which was 80 (2 X 40 = 80). If you had used 2 X sunday candle range as the rules suggest (30 pips X 2 = 60 pips) you would have broken even on the short.
Anyway i am keen to try it out. My 4hr sunday candle is good for the system. but for some reason my ATR (14) applied to the weekly chart does not match yours. you posted last weeks trades as having a PT of 240 pips meaning ATR was 480 however my ATR was reading between 580 & 600. i have not used this indicator before so i am not totally familiar with it. I am using pro real time charts & today my ATR is currently reading 591.
sorry if i am doing something wrong or have misunderstand something. would be grateful for any replies

Good catcher, Nutrader! When I trade this system I use 2x the stoploss for by break even point, and not 2x the Sunday candle. That was a typo and I edited my first post to fix it.

As for the ATR, I can't even imagine what's causing that. I've tried 3 different ATR indicators on MT4 and they are all giving me 508 for the weekly ATR(14), as of Friday evening...

80+ pips is too much for it to be normal differences between brokers, but I'm at a loss to explain it.

Anyone else have any ideas?