Alternative Technical Templates.

[Tess]

Back in familair territory again huh? I've snagged the chart from Wednesday morning & sat it alongside today's offering to highlight the consistancy of these ebb & flow price journey's.

It's no surprise they stutter & splutter when they re-visit previous zones of minor & major fulcrum activity. These occurances allow us the luxury of gathering the relevant information (fundamental as well as technical) in order to better plan out next move.

Be that based upon our favorite technical set-up or maybe a change in sentiment etc.

Some of you will no doubt have spied the technical pattern visible on the 60min & smaller timeframe?

Head & Shoulder patterns are deemed a bearish warning sign. Certainly the inability to hold & build upon the near-term s&r level of 2.0100 renders Cable suspect to follow thru sales.

I guess all this type of ongoing analysis can assist someway in prepping your favorite set-up's & strategy plays.

[johnnykanoo]

Tess and Tony I want you guys to know i love when you throw a chart or two up there. It makes me feel more confident about my analysis when I see it on your charts too. Tess I saw the head and shoulders too does that mean it will show up on the larger charts soon (fractal type thing)?
have a nice weekend guys.

[JimmyMac]

it's there Johnny on the 4 hour example through a good part of this month. I've pinched one of her templates to highlight it for you.

quite frankly, it's a bit of a messy half hearted affair on this timeframe, but it does focus the weak intent on & around her support & resistance camps, especially 2.0220.

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up. They're not usually ones for paying any attention to chart patterns & such. If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

but I guess it addresses your your question about mirror images across the timeframes.

[tonymand]

Just to add to Jimmymacs contribution if you move out to the daily (I know its not too clear) but you at least get the idea of some bearishness. JM pointed out the 4H head and shoulders but we can see here that we have broken the daily trendline and failed on a retest from the underside. The level we are at now (9957) is a strong one and if this fails to hold then 9650, 9500 and 9400 come into view as key determinants of direction over the next few sessions and all providing trading opportunities. There seems to be a growing sense of problems within housing and banking in the UK and the likelihood of a cut in rates is growing so downside pressure wouldnt be unexpected. Having said that playing with 2 weak currencies may not be as profitable as switching to the Euro and Yen pairs and playing the stronger currencies against the weaker ones, just a thought. A final thought. If you check my levels with JMs they are close but not exact. This is the nature of the beast. As T and J have said many times we are looking at zones of interest not exact levels. All you need now is a clear cut, well tried, tested and understood strategy to exploit price action as these things come into view. For me a further fall in this pair followed by a retest and fail at 9957 would certainly have me interested in the downside. Equally if this holds to the upside then a runback to 2.0100 looks reasonable and then perhaps a fall from there. In any case just make sure you have a plan whichever way it goes

[Jocelyn]

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up. They're not usually ones for paying any attention to chart patterns & such. If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

How much not to tell them.


tonymand;

That about sums it up, there really isn't much else to throw in that pot.

I particularly like your comment bout trading the strong v/s the weak. You'll definitely get a lot more bang for your buck taking that point of view.

They're beginning to price in a couple more UK rate reductions towards 4th Quarter. The UK forward numbers aren't generating a whole lot of confidence out there at the moment. That alone will weigh heavy on Sterling.

But the most opportunistic play is always to sniff out the weakest potential currency v/s the strongest & look to get onboard at the premium level

[johnnykanoo]

I guess I should look before i ask a stupid question, sorry. Tony I look at what is strong and weak to, ive been getting the sense that the uk economy is weakening but not as weak as us (usa). When I trade my ritual starts out by looking at some of the other pairs, I can see the yen is holding ground the dollar is trying but still very weak, the euro is strong and holding its own, and the pound is dropping so I look to pair a strong verse the weak senario like you suggest. Because I am a new trader my focus was primarily the cable then I branched out to the eur and now im into the yen so I am trying to build on some sort of foundation soon I will like to incorperate the aud and cad and swissy as of recently ive just been scoping them out here and there. Ive been hearing alot about the price of gold correlating with the aud and oil with the cad and I try to keep all that in mind while also looking at the correlation of other financial markets and there impact on currencies, all the while trying to keep it simple LOL but I really am. The one thing I am learning especialy from Tess is about my perspective, I have had a tendency to look so close and not really get the whole picture, but I can say honestly you guys are really great and I feel like I am a better trader for having listened to what you have to say. Enjoy the weekend everybody.

[tonymand]

Nice summary of your growing understanding of the bigger picture Johnny

[Tess]

Originally Posted by JimmyMac

must admit I giggled when she hauled that up.

If her brother or Poppa saw that they'd laugh her out of town, they truly would

ha ha ha, I should be ok as long as you two keep your mouths firmly buttoned.

But the "point" being it's continued to soften, so folks could have used either option (the regular s&r intent...or the pattern confirmation) to leg in on a continuation move.

Still displaying weakness into this mornings action with that next support camp down @ 9775 beginning to whistle it's welcome.

[tonymand]

And just to add a chart to Tess' comments. There was indeed a further fall at the open, a rechallenge and then enough bearish signals to hop on board not too long before the Europe open. I didnt trade this but took the GY instead after the 78.6 retrace on the hourly

[Tess]

I compiled these charts before I saw Tony's offering. But it's well worth mentioning the fact that if any of you guy's are using oscillators to assist in guaging entry/profit-takes/exits etc, then this type of price action can help you to filter out the false (oscillator) signals.

When prices are moving quite aggressively in one particular direction, use the ebbs & flows to hone down your entries in tandem with your favorite price aid.

Doesn't matter whether it's Stochasitcs, RSI, CCI etc. If price is falling thru these peak-trough steps, then you really only want to be looking out for stochs etc as they print an overbought signal & leg in short with whatever price trigger you utilize. Ignore the "long" signals being highlighted via the oscillator.

It'll save you a whole lot of pain & lost pips.

Anyhow, here's the confluence timeframes (240..60 & 15m) focusing this mini bid zone down here on the Cable, where we can exapct a little turbulance.

No need for the shorts to panic or start rushing for the exits quite yet if you're already positioned.

Just watch & obey the natural flow of the peak-trough behaviour & only fully exit when the price action tells you it's found sufficient demand & printed another temporary? bottom. The first signs of that momentum shift will be the printing of higher lows & highs on this smaller (15m) timeframe reference down here.