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What settings have you got your RSI on ?
Yep I thought you did, I entered from 30m. You must be way ahead of me in terms of pips now 
I like how you incorporate weekly chart, I agree they’re more reliable and can be used as a filter.
How valid is this Peter and guys ??
Citi on USD/JPY … concerned on equity markets … may lead to yen demand
Good morning btw Phil,
you’re up early I mean we are.
I use the default 14 period.
Hi Rookie,
Yeah, Citi are cautious on USD/JPY and on USD, they give 3 reasons, one of which is the fact that the 2yr remains at 0.6 - mid range since Dec - they note that the mid range on Usd/Jpy is 119 (Citi like the mid levels) They suggest that the 2yr usually prices in FED policy in advance.
They don’t rule out further gains but note caution.
They also believe that Japanese exporters are under-hedged with a steady increasing sales book, so they argue that policy makers both sides may try to seek a return to the equilibrium.
It’s an interesting thought. My own brain is having difficulties understanding the Fed’s hawkishness, but in the end the first week of June will paint a clearer picture.
One of the biggest threats to the EZ was deflation, I mentioned earlier about the ‘dear customer’ letters doing the rounds, well they are increasing, the average hike in prices of manufactured goods is between 7 to 10% which is unusually high. The main cause is exactly what Citi are saying about the Japanese exporters, insufficient hedging - this time by importers vs USD (most EU manufacturers have factories in China and use USD) - I have seen these letters affecting goods in GBP/EUR and SEK
It’s unlikely that there is any future threat from deflation after these rises filter down the chain.
During the Spring and summer I concentrate on EUR/GBP/USD - because my brain has having a difficult time understanding the psyche of the FED I have been flat all week
Should have added, the S&P traders have gotten their second breath, this is interesting, I didn’t join in, mainly because I was too scared I suppose, they shouldn’t be buying if they suspect that the FED is going to raise interest rates after all - oh well, funny old market.
Think I’ll buy the Euro in the morning just for the hell of it.
Hi Peter,
It never occurred to me that you could trade currencies on a seasonal basis. Well I’ve got a new trick under my sleeve now
Citi traders must know better than me but I still insist that they must have had humongous long position on USDJPY unlike me Aside the joke that makes sense.
[I]It’s unlikely that there is any future threat from deflation after these rises filter down the chain.[/I] Is that a good enough reason to keep buying EUR ? While what you said makes perfect sense, so is Phils technical analysis, I mean the weekly chart of EURUSD has a bearish tone more or so than bullish. Should EURUSD keep falling until it re testes previous support on weekly so should the rest of EUR cross pairs isn’t it ?
I was neutral on dollar until USDJPY and USDCAD soared up UJ breaking out of a long held range, that must tell something I’m guessing and few recent data releases have also been good. I also read somewhere that along with good data releases investors might flee from stocks and into JPY driving up the value of yen. I guess this we should be able to tell by yen ETFs. Why yen ? Safe haven thing ?
And the hedging is all very interesting subject to me. You mentioned that EU exporters are under hedged, how would they usually hedge it with or balance it out ? Is there a way to keep a good balance, or is it supposed to fluctuate ?
Hi Guys,
I do not know why, I did not become the emails anymore when someone wrote in the thread. I will read everything a bit later to catch up what is going on!
[B]Mike[/B], once more I have a question to you. Can you please give me also the link for the chart you shared with us on a daily basis for a very long period of time? Where you showed for different time frames the strength of the 8 main currencies.
Thanks,
FE
Hi Rookie,
The seasonal thing is just me.
Many EU importers were caught under-hedged against the surge in USD - the earlier months were ok but has time has dragged on those importers are having to re-stock using a much de-valued currency - hence the need to increase their sales prices to off set.
A number of importers were absorbing the increase but that is ending fast - the new month coming up seems to be their threshold.
I posted back in Nov 2013 about the threat of deflation in EZ - this threat would be a major driver of a decreasing Euro. I noted that deflation is a dangerous enemy of any economy or business and is an extremely difficult enemy to overcome - ask Japan on that one.
Here is a link that I posted back then:
Over the next 4 months the Euro rose 250 pips, then fell over 3000 as the deflation threat took hold
ECB’s Praet warns of deflationary pressures - RT� News
Now we have a scenario that there is a probability that this threat is coming to an end, simply caused by a surging USD and the use of Chinese labour and materials by many European manufacturers.
I posted the fact that Central Banks will happily use currency values to fight deflation - here:
http://forums.babypips.com/melting-pot/51139-ict-129.html
So connect this with what is happening on the ground in EZ at present, for example one of the peripherals who was suffering perhaps the most in the downturn - this was the news posted today.
Hey FE.
I’ll give you the link.
I’m sorry, but that’s gonna cost some money. It’s a one time plop.
I haven’t been using it anymore.
I believe I have settled down now. See, I’ve been wandering around in the wilderness searching for…you know…my method. And it consists of a longer term trading. So I have no need for watching the market so closely. Even the daily time frames are just too quick for me nowadays.
Ok. That’s nice.
Here you go FE.
StrongWeak | FXCM App Store
P.S. I’ve gotten back into your sessions lately. It’s been fun!
Mike
A bit of dollar buying ahead of the news…This is usually a sort of stop hunt ahead of the news. In other words when the dollar goes up ahead of news, it will likely go down after the news.
I hope not though as I’m still long USDCAD and short EURUSD.
Your a genius Philip.
Hi Mike,
thanks a lot for the link. Of course I will not buy that analysis there but needed it. It is also nice to hear you are still around. Peter and Philip are always there, your rookie and BB sometimes disappear. Just share your thoughts if you have some. Also your trades. As Peter always says, from thoughts we can always learn.
You are welcome on the sessions, if you stick around long enough there, once might come some little stuff that has something to do with Mike :-)))
I am getting used to always being on the opposite side of Philip My EURUSD position was happy to see the upward movement today.
Have a great weekend,
FE
Hi [B]Philip[/B] and [B]Rookie[/B],
you guys are the technical specialists. I entered NZD/JPY short based on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Just like the long-term trades from Mike. After I have made my decision I am calm and thought I ask what you guys think about it.
[B]Mike[/B],
I set up the chart you linked me on tradingview. However I can only make the comparison if the USD is the base currency. Is is possible to compare all currencies to the EUR or to any other currencies besides the USD? Maybe [B]Peter[/B] can also help out a bit if he has experience with that.
FE
Definitely a good sell. I see a slight move to 0.89 and it would be a great area to sell it a gain towards the lows at least.
Now guys with all eyes on the dollar next week (non-farm payroll), I will be looking to buy the pullback in Euro against one of the crosses. I don’t know which one yet but I’m pretty sure it will happen in the next 10 trading days.
I closed my three May trades for a profit of 1000 pips. I’m up 9.99% (albeit a really small account) since I switched to a new broker mid April.
And I also found a very interesting article for Peter:
Investors Seem to Love Greek Stocks Despite the Never-Ending Talks - Bloomberg Business
Thought I check-in with you guys. I’ve been busy lately trying to come up with a method which could aid me with my entries. COT report is great for following the ‘smart’ guys but is not a timing indicator.
Hi guys.
I’m fortunate enough to be home on a Friday afternoon before the NY close. And I just checked my numbers now for the month of May. A quick total looks like this.
I’m up. +17.1%
Week one = +5.1%
Week two = +3.9%
Week three=+3.2%
Week four =+ 3.7%
I don’t understand how it doesn’t add up, but my beginning and ending numbers are that.
I’m happy.
Mike
Hi Mike,
I think I do understand why the numbers do not add up. From the beginning balance to the end balance your increase was +17.1%. However the weekly gains are compounded. So the +3.9% gain on week two is actually more than 3.9% gain. The 3.9% gain is not based on the original 100 value but the already increased 105.1 value, so it is compounded. I hope you got it.
Wrote you PM.
FE
BB, I mentioned to a trader friend yesterday evening that I intended to buy Eur/Usd this morning.
To enter such a trade often I would not use a chart or an indicator, I would have a fair idea of the level or price that I would use the night before.
I posted a few times about these levels for entries, they are very simple - just use the Asian session, most times the SL requirement is zero (as I have mentioned).
Here shows Thursday and today, the green line is the buy entry, chart hr1 Eur/Usd - pink lines Asian.
By coincidence that Asian low today is the Asian high on Wed, also by coincidence my entry level happened to be today’s mid Asian - so seems there was buy orders there also - anyways the buy stop takes advantage of buy orders placed at Thur’s Asian high, those orders provide the momentum.
(there is no such thing as coincidence in the market, just buy and sell orders - it’s where those guys place their orders that counts)