Hi BB,
I am not sure if you were already here when I made some analysis on the different indexes based on the COT Report. The thing is there was very little open interest on the market to trade those. For that reason the report was completely useless and did not provide any good results. For this reason I do not follow any kind Index in the report. I do believe it can be the same in the case of bonds.
Happy Birthday thread, we are 1 year old :41:
FE
Hi Mike,
can you please post the link where you compared the different currencies to each others?
Thanks and have a great weekend,
FE
Well its been a while since we discussed market direction.
Earlier this year, back in January, I discussed a multi-month decline in the dollar. I think this correction is now over and the dollar will now restart its rise. Iām going to and think other traders should be starting to look for dollar longs now.
Hi Philip,
Iām guessing that maybe you are thinking re the Yellen speech, or possibly the cpi numbers, or maybe itās more to do with TA and out of my field.
If itās Yellen, then Iām not so convinced. She is optimistic, but much hangs on wages, not on employment numbers. Just like Carney, indeed like many central bankers, she wants to take back control in the form of int rates, but the market will respond to what it knows best - hard results.
If inflationary pressure increases she will get what she wants, if not, then like Carney, she will have to wait.
The jury is out, in the meantime Iāll just go with the flow and buy some Euros (even more if we ever get this Greek thing sorted out) 
Yeah its more to do with the TA, I can share charts of course.
I agree with you by the way. I personally donāt think the FED will raise rates at all this year, or at least they shouldnāt.
Yet the charts are suggesting a rate hike in June or at least a clear hint that rates will be raised in September, I donāt know.
Whatās making the signal so significant is that it is happening across the board; I see a start of a decline in oil, silver, Euro and AUD in addition to the potential surge in Dollar. I also see a hint of a distribution top forming in SPX. The latter is a very strong sign imo of a June hike (although fundamentally I stress I donāt think the fed should hike, Iām just sharing what the charts are telling me.)
One other explanation, may be we will see a rise in the dollar now until the June meeting then the market is disappointed and the dollar resumes to the downside. I doubt it, but this option should remain on the table for now.
there is no good reason for fed to hike the interest rate this year. apparently, the whole world from china to europe to japan is slowing and printing money. if they raise and make the dollar strong, many will avoid doing business with america and that will bring them down.
choppy waters ahead and until the world catches up with them, i see then they will raise their interest rate. remember what happened in the 90ās when US persisted on their interest rate hike, it caused the financial crisis in asia, started by thailand.
Yes, itās interesting, what I have found of interest is how the Gold traders are responding to the USD.
First week Dec 2014 USDX broke itās 4.5 year high, nothing seemed to be able to stop it.
In the first week of Nov 2014 Gold had already broken to the downside, on the second attempt, itās low set June 2013 - so the stage was set for the USD buyers and the Gold sellers.
Four months later - week ending Mar13 just past. Gold traders were not interested in selling into any new low, they tried, but sellers were just not there.
Yet that very same week USDX seemed as if the moon was in sight, another new high, not only a new high, but one that excelled in terms of range - could this really last?
It seems not, the following week USDX hit the top, that weeks reversal was almost as strong as the previous weekās range up, meantime the gold traders just rejected the notion of breaking the low and bought.
Just a follow up to the above, itās all in the past, so of little meaning to my own particular analysis, what counts is what is up ahead.
This week coming may depend more on the end of month and the TA that goes with that, then the following week the numbers will take over, after that who knows.
Interesting observation. Are you referring to monthly chart ? As far as I can see daily chart suggests the exact opposite. And what do you mean by distribution top ?
And great sum up Peter ! Iām all in for euro (and pound) longs.
On the weekly. I saw the daily but I trust the weekly more.
Distribution top refers to the final move up in stocks or other instruments that precede a noticeable fall. In it, market makers move the market up so that they can sell the instrument at a high price. But then they do not buy it so the instrument move from strong hands to weak hands and as a result, falls.
Yeah, our Philip sometimes forgets to mention which timeframe should we look at :13: However Philip is like the markets in this sense: you need patience and discipline and with some experience you will have a good hint what is most likely thinking about
BTW just like you - despite the recents weakness - I am also into buying the EUR.
Have a great week everyone,
FE
Well Iām long USDCAD, short EURUSD and long GBPJPY. So letās see how things pan out. Good luck everybody.
Iāll through my bids in also.
Iām long AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, USD.
Short on EUR, JPY.
That should about cover it all, huh?
(Iām really laughing right now cause that seems to be all over the place)
I concentrate on the weekly time frame trends now.
Sorry FEā¦
Hi Mike,
thanks for the link. I checked it however it is the main site. Can you give a quick tutorial exactly where is it and what do I have to do for settings?
Thanks,
FE
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/g6ZDuPt9/
Sorry againā¦
Well, I put up whatever currency your looking at across the board. Letās say the USD. So I use the EUR/USD as the first pair. But you need to put it up as USDEUR. Then just hit the ācompareā button, and input all the other USD pairs. Like USDGBP, USDCHF, USDJPY, USDAUD, USDNZD etcā¦all with the USD as the āquoteā currency (I hope that is the correct term). You donāt need to go in and out of the ācompareā tab, just continually input the pairs as youāre in that tab. Keep hitting the enter button on your computer, and input the next one.
Hope you can get it.
Thanks a lot Mike! And it is also great to hear you are still here, only a bit quiet. I hope your trading is going good!
FE
USDJPY might also be a good one to keep an eye on. GBPJPY long ? its right up on previous resistance on weekly.
As we approach London session, USDJPY made a new high. I had go up with UJ.
Not only UJ but I notice broad USD strength all around.
Good call Phil ! (thus far) :54:
I have been long GBPJPY before the elections. EURUSD short and USDCAD long have been since Friday. Now my stops are above break even so I have nothing to lose.
Donāt forget this could all change if core durables come out weak. In my experience in of following the news in the past two years. I always notice that the market moves opposite to the news. Meaning, the USD was moving down ahead of the October Fed decision. Almost like a squeeze so that it can rally after the news. This is just one example but there were plenty.
Yeah your system gave a buy for USDCAD and sell for EURUSD couple of days ago. I didnāt like the idea of using RSI as a filter as I thought what difference would adding an another price based indicator would make, but I see that youāve combined weekly chart PA or maybe you have had used it but I wasnāt aware. I like weekly PA better.
Thanks for the reminder Iāll be babysitting my positions around the release.
