Final little thought, wonder will that gap on the left of the spx chart get filled over the next days, was almost filled but not quite, also wonder will Usd/Jpy get back to 123.80
I had mentioned that spx was overreacting or knee jerking and that it would settle down, this was just sentiment, or maybe the feeling that I have seen all this before, but there was no TA to show this.
Your chart has caused me a little look back to see if there were any possible TA to reflect this feeling.
This is all I could come up with, hindsight stuff so maybe not so inspiring, but it’s there nonetheless.
(bottom line W/S on US10YR)
Hey Rookie, I’m preparing to exit my position soon, may be by the close of the current four-hour candle. I’m done 30 pips as things stand.
Its largely down to luck now. If the NFP numbers come good, I’ll likely close my loser for a profit. If however they come out bad, I’m likely to lose much more than the thirty pips I’m currently losing.
I thought it was going to be a fun week!
Post NFP
The area that Peter was mentioning 1.1100 is holding still now as a resistance previous support. Its tempting to go long on the break above, but considering that its a friday I’m assuming there won’t be much happening. SPX went down a bit but is gaining few points back is lacking upward momentum. I was wondering Peter, if selling in Shanghai composite is going to have any major effect on SPX ?
Phil,
I’m contemplating if I should place some buy orders on USDJPY. You can certainly get back in later on Monday.
So far Rookie this looks like a sell. However we will have to wait and see since July is the strongest month for USDJPY.
Somtime market move in direct with Commercials, why?
Phil,
USDJPY 30min looks bullish to me doesn’t it ? so is EURJPY despite Greece headlines. I’m tempted to go long on GBPUSD.
All currencies are viciously down against the Yen. Oil is down more than 2%. Gold is down more than 2%. The S&P is down more than 1%. Silver is down 6%.
I mean can we describe today’s movements in any other term than “crisis”?
Indeed, I was thinking the same thing. I was experimenting with my CTSI indicator for a while and noticed that whenever the Yen starts to rally, almost every major currency starts to fall.
It is rare and significant if a currency rallies WITH the yen or falls along with it. (JPY is the orange line btw)
Very interesting.
Guys, remember I spoke about Euclid Tsakalotos some time ago, well it seems he is the root cause of the turnaround in the S&P and Eur/Usd
One of the 18 Fin ministers has just described him as “impressive” which is something of a surprise (particularly given the minister who so described him) , apparently the Greeks will look for number three bailout through the ESM.
Likely we will hear more from Mr Tsakalotos tomorrow, the prospects of a deal have increased slightly this evening.
Interesting! Thanks for mentioning this. I’ll read more about the dude and how he can influence the bailout negotiations.
Hi Peter,
I had been looking to buy EUR, but for the past few days or week the market have been shaky. I’m wondering how gold is down when yen is up ? thought it was bought against risk as yen. Does it mean the situation not as bad as people make it out to be ?
Hi Rookie,
I can be difficult to apply logic in a see saw of risk that is Greece, hence usually simpler just to day trade if on the Euro, example I’ve gone long at Asian mid, if I get 40 -50 pips I’ll take them, if negative around 30 I’ll exit.
The market is saying to buy Yen when risk is off, so usually better just to go along with it. Suspect gold off colour with the commodities, you know that story about throwing out the baby with the water.
Btw, see Bloomberg quoting Syriza spokesperson as saying they will seek bailout under ESM - (BP is streets ahead :))
Yeah, interesting alright. (JPY)
But, I can tell you that the USD is the one that mostly correlates with the Yen.
You can’t draw any definite lines though.
They remind me of the EUR and CHF.
Believe me, I see the line-ups, (how they all compare).
Other than a major risk off situation (the YEN is normally pared with the CHF), the USD is generally somewhere close by to the JPY.
So, keep in mind the USD when looking at the JPY. I think the USD is tied more closely to them than any other one.
And again, this is in the context of how they all relate to one another. The aggregate.
Mike
Yes Mike,
Usd/Jpy this morning in down mode, couple that with Eur/Gbp in up mode - gives a little confidence in the buy on Eur/Usd in that the others are suggesting some USD selling and some EUR buying right now.
Yet another dovish tone from FOMC.
AUD employment numbers came out better than expected. NZD buying is happening. I think its about time com dolls rebound. AUDJPY has a lot to catch up from recent downfall compared to AUDUSD but it looks tricky with Greece.
Whats your plan Mike ?
I’m looking at NZDUSD long.
Update: I’m long on NZDUSD SL is a lot wider than I would normally do.
Hey Rookie…
I just finished up tallying stuff up, and checked the thread now. And it’s funny you asked what I think.
Cause I placed only one more. NZD/USD going short. At .67310 . Looking for 100 pips, which will take it down to the support level. And of course 200 stop loss which is way up there.
SORRY MAN!!
I think this is just a good correction. I stepped in later than what your picture showed, cause now it looks like a double top.
That is the one hour chart.
And the only other ones I got going now is basically with the USD.
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
Let’s stay friends. :13:
Mike
Well, I found one more.
The JPY is strong. Trending high against the AUD. And the levels look good, for a 100.
AUD/JPY short at 90.374
1hr chart.
Mike
Good chance that there will be some gains on Euro today, the Greek govt has handed in the homework just before the deadline.
Seems there are some good things in that document that the Troika would likely agree to - but as usual there is a caveat.
The parliament gets to vote, the left of the ruling party are not happy, their most vociferous parliamentarian is the Energy Minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, he has not signed the homework.
To add even more drama (if that’s possible) neither has the head of the Junior partners in the coalition.
So it will be important to see how the opposition parties behave, will they think of their people or play politics?
So volatility ahead.