Clint, I have the same entry points as yourself, but am again going with a 24/48 ratio. Looking at just where the candles closed (excluding the spikes), I see a range of 1.61182 to 1.61669, a range of (you guessed it) about 48 pips. So I am banking on no retracements after the trigger greater than my 48 pip SL.
Thinking of letting it go, but am now noticing that, the same as last night, the first couple of candles after midnight have already nudged up past our High bar. As it’s too early (again) for the actual London breakout, I’m pondering whether I ought do as I did last night and nudge that Long entry point a little bit further north to accommodate this movement.
Guess I’ll be sticking around to watch this for a few minutes, after all.
On my platform (FXCM) the HIGH for the 10-hour overnight period is 1.61752 (bid). I rounded that off to 1.6175 and added 9 pips to it to get my Buy Entry price of 1.6184.
The 9-pip addition is: the 6-pip buffer + 3 pips for the spread.
The 3 pips for the spread is [B]on the Buy entry only[/B], because we don’t buy at the Bid price, we buy at the Ask price, which is higher than the Bid price by the amount of the spread.
To walk you through it step by step, the HIGH is 1.6175 (bid) and 1.6178 (ask). When the price rises 6 pips above the HIGH, it will be 1.6181 (bid) and 1.6184 (ask), at which point my Buy Entry order will be triggered (that is, I will Buy at the Ask price of 1.6184).
Your broker’s typical spread on the GBP/USD may be something other than 3 pips. You should add [B]your[/B] broker’s typical spread to the 6-pip buffer to get [B]your[/B] Buy Entry price.
If you’re nervous about those probes above the HIGH line, you can move the Period HIGH up 7 pips. Then your revised HIGH will be at the same level as the 15:50 GMT candle high. (That may be a more natural Period HIGH than the one we are using.)
If you make this change, then your Buy Entry price will be adjusted upward to 1.6191.
Yeah, after those two candles early on moved above the channel, the price went back down within the range and we await the breakout per normal. I had moved my Buy entry a grand total of three pips upward as a result of those two probes.
I second that sucking and raise you a royal sucking. Wow.
Even after moving my long entry a few pips up it still triggered and then jackknifed the entire range! Then, of course, after stopping everyone out, it did indeed perform the true breakout, you guessed it, long.
I’m beginning to think you can’t even trade this until 3 am, period.
I hear one of our regular US contributers on this thread did the same this morning (GMT) and picked up some big pips before closing out and heading off to work.
Dont get me wrong. I think this strategy is well considered and well researched before entries both ways are formulated. It just seems to me a ‘set and forget’ aproach is risky! I think a late as possible entry and manually triggered is safer even if it means getting some red eye. Perhaps ‘set the alarm clock and forget’
Yeah, that would mean staying up pretty late, around 3 am my time, to set this up. But may be the only way to do it. [searches for setting to time delay entry points]
non farm employment reports, ecb reports and other unemployment coming out tomorrow. Probably causing the lack of price movement today like the last time similar reports came out. Sideways price for 1 or 2 days.
I on the other hand just got boned by my broker. Trading the upward channel on GBP/USD atm, had a new buy order set at the [I]same price[/I] as my stop loss on the current trade; got stopped out, but the new Buy order was not filled. Of course, the price went back up and would have covered my loss.
I’m in that same trade (entered at 1.6242) been bouncing around a bit hasnt it! Its 17:35 here so as much as it pains me to do so. I’ll close out at 32 pips. Sure I’ve got a home to go to somewhere. Catch up with you later tonight.
Indeed I did get about 50 pips today (not the breakout), but had lost about 30 during the night (Eastern Daylight Time) so up about 20 overall for the day. I still fee like I have a lot to learn and lots of experience that needs to be gained but I’ve got a good teacher!
I’m getting ready for a long weekend vacation, so won’t be trading till I get back on Tuesday. Good luck everyone!
Originally Posted by [B]Clint[/B]
[I]Well, that sucks.[/I]
[I]I think every SL up to, and including, 50 pips just got hit.[/I]
[I]This morning was just like most of last week — crappy.[/I]
[I]I’ll talk to you guys later.[/I]
OTOH, using the range-defined stop worked excellently in the lower end of the trade. Look at the low of the last overnight period, and then at the low after that. They are practically the same. My stop was within 4 pips from that, and it was never taken. Later in the day, I was able to move the stop above BE, at the distance of 20 pips of the price at the time of that operation, and it was then hit. Well, if I had just stayed in the trade, my initial TP at +65 pips would have been finally taken. I need to watch, which is better, move the SL above BE or just let the trade work itself out. +7 pips for today’s trade, better anyway than a huge loss.
