Hmmm, so does anyone know what happened to ICT? Seems he has disappeared :o
EDIT: Nevermind… 
Don’t mean to blow my own horn or anything, but I am particularly happy with my trade today! 
Bought at 1.3359 and still have a portion running from 1.3290 
I went straight from manually back testing historical data getting comfortable with certain setups and “paper trading” to a live account this month. The most important thing I noticed which I need to work on is sticking to my plan (we’ve all heard that one before… but there is good reason). I would have taken less trades and limited my losses. There are cases where it paid off to do so but I think for now this is a bad habit to have for somebody who is still new to this. There is a advantage to being nimble and adjusting to what unfolds but I don’t have enough experience yet to feel comfortable doing so.
My 5k live account which I started with is sitting at -3.2% presently (9 trades, 3 Wins, 6 losses). Not very happy how I performed so far on my 1st month as it doesn’t reflect my previous 6 months of results manually back testing data. I was planning to add additional funds to my account but will only do so if I have a profitable month and am satisfied with my results.
Does this mean you never demo traded with live data prior to going live with real money?
Wow…I’m a risk taker, but I’ve been demoing since November (profitable every month) and just now starting to feel like I should go live. And when I do, it will be with 1K initially. This demo experience since November has been very enjoyable…Discovered Forex back in 2008. And blown up way too many demo accounts to attempt to count. It’s nice to see a balance grow systematically over months instead of my usual spike up occasionally, with a crash down to $0.
Thanks for the advice. I have a game plan in mind and need to stick to it
I definitely won’t be adding funds if I don’t feel like I am consistently profitable.
Your are definitely on your way to consistency and growth. Nice job as always.
On my side, that’s correct … I never demo traded except for a few trades to make sure I am familiar with how to manage my trades using the broker I deal with. It might seem like high risk but I really don’t feel that this is the case. I really believe that this 1st month so far is not indicative to how I would normally perform. Time and future results will either prove me right or wrong …
The months not over yet
If this is the case, all depends on how much I lose. If it is below 10%, I won’t change anything in terms of risk management and obviously won’t add additional funds. If it is above 10%, I may probably stop and reassess my game plan.
This 1st month would have been profitable so far if I didn’t make certain mistakes which had cost me over 6%. I clearly noted them in my trading log and will not repeat them (game plan). If I however keep making the same mistakes do to lack of discipline and patience then I will stop trading all together.
Yea I agree with the plan of only starting with a couple of hundred or a fraction of the full.amount you intend to trade with…if you can’t build up money off of $500…you probably won’t be able to with $20,000
(I’m speaking in general terms, not.about anyone specific )
This is a big hurdle that I will also face if the account grows and I’m sure alot of folks will also be dealing with as well. It’s one thing to be profitable with a small account and another to replicate the same when running with a large account.
A 2% loss on a 200k account is 4k. Can we all honestly say that taking 3-4 losing trades in that scenario won’t shake us ?
I recall ICT mentioning in one his videos that he became accustomed early on in his trading career dealing with huge swings based on how he traded.
Gotta love the smart traders and their relentless ingenuity, they took the euro bears to the slaughter all week, yet always kept them interested in an impending short, which looked like the right trade probably most of the week SLY!
Yeah. After Wednesday nyo, I changed from a short bias to long. The Greece “bailout” started coming to light and realized there are likely few sellers out there. Commercials increased longs perlast weeks cot. And hedgers increased shorts. Too many people short for it not to go up was my thinking.
Wed gu had a big drop to a prior sr level while eu stayed flat. Saw that as accumulation. They didn’t need more sellers onthe eu. They were there. They needed some sellers on gu, dropped the price, the zoom zoom up.
Weekly update
A decent week. 1.9%. 6 trades. Won 2, lost 4. The first 2 trades I lost was due to entering trades before I left for work in the morning and couldn’t manage appropriately. I wanted to close one early, and cancel the other…but was having laptop issues at work and couldn’t. If I was on a live account, I would have called the broker, or called my wife and had her close them out. But taking credit for the losses even though I know if I was live I wouldn’t have lost them.
Also, another loss, as I said yesterday, had the direction and bias right Just entered a little early. Stop was hit by 3 pips, then raced in my direction.
So…1.9% return this week. And 3 losers that I’m OK with. Only 1 trade was wrong that I had the bias completely off or didn’t react to the market correctly.
updated picture. Incorrectly had last weeks initially.
Nice results. Let’s trade
Yeah. I’m starting with 1k. After doubling, o plan to add a substantial amount. But will likely keep the balance on this as a 1k account for illustrative purposes.
This is why we have to keep our HTF perspective in check. I tried to short fiber coming out of this VSTF consolidation and got creamed. Then I wrote down all the reasons why I had the directional bias wrong… First of all, the HTF Market Profile is a bullish trend that started on 1/16/12 at 1.2625. We have to remember that we are trend traders not counter-trend scalpers.
So if we zoom out a little bit we should have been looking for a low to form at a HTF key level. Thats exactly what happened on 2/16/12 during NYO, when price was reaching for the previous week’s STOPs at that 3040 level. We had choppy price action into a HTF low at 2980 resulting in an aggressive bullish trend burst. The following day closed 10pips above its open, ending the week with an ITL in place. At this point we are anticipating a STF bullish trend within a HTF bullish trend, in sync with the HTF Market Profile. Looking for the judas under ARL (Asian Range Low) during LO, would have allowed us to participate in the move on Monday 2/20/12, and kept us out of losing trades all week. I need to remember that trend force trumps overbought/oversold indications.
Ok so now its Thursday 2/23/12 we have been in a tight VSTF consolidation for several days… We had a potential Short Term High on Tuesday during LO followed by a flat Wednesday. You could make the case that a fractal high was forming off of last week’s high. But then during LO price blows through Tuesday’s high and your whole theory would have been denied and you would have been able to call an extension of the STF trend initiated the previous week (2/16/12). Worst Case Scenario you take the 60pips made on Monday. Best Case Scenario, you also go long on Thursday, during NYO, for another 80pips.
Daily Chart showing December 2010 key low, forming an inverted H&S
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/Dec-2010keylow.png
Daily Chart showing RR tracks with a long wick marking the low on 2/16/12
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/tracks.png
4Hr Chart proving the bullish trend by showing huge gains following oversold indications
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/4hrchart.png
4Hr Chart showing a hammer at each buying opportunity
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/2hammers.png
1Hr Chart showing the level where STOPs were targeted
Note the Type 1 Divergence on 2/6 and 2/16 during NYO
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/stopraid.png
Snapshots continued on next post…
1Hr chart proving that in a trending market price tends to respect the weekly central pivot/
Note the STF downtrend during a HTF bullish trend and the recent STF bullish trend in sync with the HTF Market Profile
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/centralpivotrespect.png
Just when you thought a swing high was forming,
15Min Chart showing the virgin lows during that tight VSTF consolidation/
Those lows were being respected which indicated bullish Market Flow…
http://i1203.photobucket.com/albums/bb394/techpro89/marketflow.png
If your initial STOP does not take out the Fractal High/Low, formed during VSTF consolidation, then scaling in may prove profitable. Your theory needs to be proven wrong before aborting the plan. In this case our theory was denied prior to entry.
I would really appreciate some constructive criticism on my analysis.
GLGT 
I´m definitely interested in following your progress and I also think it´s helpful for many of us here. Reading you from your beginnings has been like a reality show and I´m impressed with the consistency you have achieved. So yes in some way you´re a testimony of what hard work can do for us.
On a side note, I know it´s hindsight and many of you have already seen this, but I´m amazed at how Michael´s price projections are so darmn accurate. I´ve been really happy to widen a little bit my profit targets with more condifence.
Particularly Eur/Usd made its weekly high at the 161.8 TT´s extension and the 200 Fib extension from the previous triangle´s range. Amazing isn´t it?
Hello,
On Twitter Michael said that he posted a video on the new Babypips thread. I could not find the video. Can someone please direct me to the video.
Thank you so much.
Csk.
First page…
I think this is a common mindset amongst a lot of people, myself included. I’ve found myself numerous times tightening SL’s, closing trades early, and lower TP projections in order to either a) protect my current winnings (day, week, month, whatever it is) or b) from fear of losing more after 1 or more losing trades. Of course these things don’t work and end up costing not only your pocket book but your emotional stability. There’s not much worse than adjusting your SL to tighter than normal just to get stopped out before it moves in your direction straight to your TP mark when your standard SL would have resulted in a successful trade. Closing early or adjusting to a lower TP aren’t as bad, but they still effect you emotionally in future trades when they would have landed on your original TP limit and net you a lot more (although there is some solace in knowing your original analysis was in fact correct even though you didn’t stick to it).
These are just discipline and confidence things we need to work on. We know these concepts and our analysis work, we’ve seen it time and time again. There is no reason for us to move away from what we know, yet it’s extremely tough to stay completely consistent with our trading. The toughest part of trading is overcoming our own bad habits, insecurities, and doubts and simply putting what we know works into action time and time again without straying. But these things are simply something we have to do with time and effort. If we can’t break our bad habits and emotional instability we shouldn’t be traders.
I hope you’re able to stick to your plan as you increase your account and keep yourself in check. I’ll be working on doing the same in the coming weeks.