2-year backtest EURUSD, 300 pips/month

I think you first have to read Risk vs Return | PipShip

I think the DD of the system will be somewhat lower than 1000 pips previously mentioned.
DDmax in 2-year backtest is max -528 pips. (250 trades)
We are now trading for almost 1/4 year and maxDD is -166. (60 trades)
System, trading EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD will make about 250 trades a year.

I think the maxDD won’t cross the -600 pips level. (we maybe need a few months to see…)
[B]300 pips up/month
600 pips down max[/B].

When trading with Normal Risk Approach (10% risk) and Abs Stop = 90%.

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.17
3-4th month = 0.33 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.50 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips) ->

[B]15% profit each month… (after scaling up first 4 months)[/B]

I made a program to build a track record while trading with pipship.

http://www.pipship.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/program3.xls

This will be somewhat easier…

[I]When trading with Minimum Risk Approach (3% risk) and Abs Stop = 97%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.05
3-4th month = 0.01 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.15 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 91% ->

[B]5% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

[I]When trading with Normal Risk Approach (6% risk) and Abs Stop = 94%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.1
3-4th month = 0.2 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.3 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 82% ->

[B]10% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

[I]When trading with Maximum Risk Approach (9% risk) and Abs Stop = 91%.[/I]

Scaling up the amount of mLots / $1000:
1-2nd month = 0.05
3-4th month = 0.01 (if +600 pips)
5th month and beyond = 0.15 mLots/$1000 (if +1200 pips)
Stop = 73% ->

[B]15% profit each month… [/B](after scaling up first 4 months)

I remember looking at it! Can you kindly tell me how exactly it works, as I am not really sure about it…got lost in the excell sheet :frowning:

With the excell file, you are able to see the 3 year prospectus when trading live (filling in the numbers of gained pips)
In the managed accounts (we are setting up a managed account version of pipship) You don’t need to scale up the lotssize, adapt the stop, know the whole technical story behind the strategy… just 10% profit each month, 6% risk on original deposit.

Now we only have pipship unmanaged accounts version with zulutrade. You need to do the step by step proces to trade effectively with pipship. Trading Manual | PipShip

To help you, we created an excell file to fill in the numbers of lots, risk approach, stop is being calculated for start and trading with the final amount of lots (after scaling up the lotssize number)
You are able to see the prospectus of 3 years trading.

Underneath hypothetical charts of:

[ul]
[li] minimum (risk 3% on original deposit, monthly return 5%)
[/li][li] normal (risk 6% on original deposit, monthly return 10%)
[/li][li] maximum (risk 9% on original deposit, monthly return 15%)
[/li][/ul]

All approaches do have an probability on profit of +/- 86%.

First 4 months it’s important not to hit the Absolute Stop = risk on original deposit. Probability first time trying to cross this 4-month-period: 86%. First and second time: 98%. After crossing this period you will have a profit buffer to continue trading when hitting the Absolute Stop. Before the end of the 4-month-period: hit Abs Stop -> game over (14%) Try a second time?

Images underneath: One time hit (-600 pips) Absolute Stop in 3 years of trading.
Probability hit stop = 1x in 2 years trading (backtest 2 year)

Start deposit: $ 10.000,–




I got some feedback from people downloading the file. Some of the program statistics were missing.
I will post a new excell file in a minute… (microsoft 2003 instead of XP)

thank you for the detailed analysis! I will test it and let you know!!! :slight_smile:

correct file: http://www.pipship.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/program3.xls

jep.

30 sept = > 1100 pips.

boring…

thanks!! that’s why it was not going the first time…right right!

Original LOGO PipShip (managing your own account with zulutrade):


New LOGO Managed Account Service PipShip:


We (webdesigner, hedgefundmanager (controller), programmer and founder (me)) are currently working on the PipShip ELITE webpage and service:

-licence,
-registration,
-administration system intern business
-automating the all-accounts-together-account-settings that need to be adjusted each month
-opening business bank account
-creating log in accounts customers
-terms and disclaimers and law profs checking them
-in contact with zulutrade as a business partner to use their service
-design of new website next to pipship.com
-tax registration
-support platform setup
-etc.

It will be fully operational in first months of 2014. (we hope :P, licences could delay us)

We made a quick sketch of the new website PipShip ELITE:


In the following weeks I will start trading E 10.000 euro’s in own follower account. (next to small account and accounts of friends etc.)
I will upload a screenshot each week with performance. :slight_smile:

What type of registration are you guys getting?
Cute banners btw :wink:

We need registration as financial service provider (pipshipcom) and we need a licence as investment firm to manage accounts of customers ourselves. (pipshipelitecom)

registration and licences are very costly. Request is E 4000 euro’s. (and each year 750 euro) Both firms. We are students and post-students. We don’t have the money to buy these expensive licences (and then still we are only able to act as investing firm in the netherlands)
Maybe we need NFA and CFTC licences too for US clients. And other startup costs as well. Unfortunately it’s difficult to borrow money for it. And it’s always risky. That’s why we desided to wait till end of 2014 before we start to buy expensive licences. Then we hope we earned some of the costs back of pipship so we are able to invest in pipshipelite.

Till now we are only able to send signals, not to manage followers accounts. You have to manage the lots amount and stop settings yourself the following months till we are able to take over accounts of > $10.000,–. (pipshipelite)
With account of less than $10.000 you have to manage your portfolio yourself anyway. The extra service is too costly for small accounts because we only semi automated pipshipelite. (when growing > $10.000 you are able to use pipshipelite)

(Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets)
Home AFM | AFM
NFA - National Futures Association
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

We want to make it as easy as possible for you guys…
And biggest risk/return ratio possible (-6%/+10% each month) :wink:
(and some cute fairy tale figures as well…) :40:

We are now at 900 pips. Still 200 pips to go for end month. Then the forecast I posted 1,5 months ago is pretty much the same as the end result of 3 months trading.

forecast:


real trading:


Then another 3 months till end of 2013 we hope to earn another 1000 pips. :slight_smile:


[B]More important notifications:[/B]

[ul]
[li] [B] [I]Please be carefull when chosing other SP’s in your trading portfolio.[/I][/B]
[/li][/ul]
I know some other zulutrade strategies look very profitable. I’m not saying this to become a monopolist. Most SP’s trading at zulu are amateurs because SP’s are not compensated enough. Professional SP’s are only trading large company funds (and earning acceptable fees). It’s not in their interest of providing signals to small accounts of retail traders. My biggest motivation to send signals to retail traders is because I have seen too many SP-accounts going down (and taking out the accounts of followers with them) because of amateur programming, changing the strategy (mistake in code causing a blow up of SP-account) amateur ways of controlling drawdowns and lying to followers: [I]‘I’m experienced, thank you for trust, be patient, sorry bad market conditions (they do not exist) tough month… (bull****) or next time… I will correct… Best traders do have bad… weeks, months, years? Please I want to make some money with destroying your account, stay with me….[/I] I’m just tired of these SP’s managing millions of dollars the wrong way.

[ul]
[li][B] [I]Worst of all: semi-automated strategies… babypips is full of semi/non automated strategies… = bull****[/I] [/B]
[/li][/ul]
SP’s trading with semi-automated strategies eventually blowing up their SP-account because emotions start to dominate the trading behavior when managing a couple of million dollar… (they think they are god… eventually switching off the strategy by large DD. Very dishonest to followers. The SP is not aware of the dangerous situation because he thinks he ‘rules’ the market anyway. He is invincible. (Trading as No1 SP of zulutrade!) Unfortuanately, not-experienced followers (99%) are not able to see the difference between dangerous and carefully designed strategies. Only expert programmers are able to notify dangerous strategies. I’m always right about the next strategy to go down… Some stupid amateur SP burning millions of dollars and he doesn’t even know why it’s happening…

[ul]
[li][B] [I]Please avoid any greedy self invented moneymanagement strategies. Something in your mind is saying… euhm helloew… this could end pretty nasty… The other part of you is seeing loads of dollars[/I][/B]
[/li][/ul]
Greed is part of human nature. (and especially a part of man) The whole crisis is about greed, egotism and self-interest. Those traits are the traits of success. But when trading forex, we are in danger of destroying ourselves by our greed and stupidity. You are here because of greed! Otherwise this website was not important at all. Try to control your greed. Maybe the most important rule to trade succesfully. (1)

[ul]
[li] [B][I]Please do not interfere in managing positions of the system yourself.[/I][/B]
[/li][/ul]
If you feel any need for experimenting, please experiment with a demo account. Blow up your account full of demo money… I don’t care. Some people are deep down inside not really looking for steady consistent returns. They are looking for action! (1) (2) (3)

[ul]
[li][B] [I]Trading to make up a loss can also be quite dangerous…[/I][/B]
[/li][/ul]
Trading is not gambling, but the problem is that a number of those attempting to trade are gamblers. Trading can become an instrument for destroying your mind, soul, body and lives. For trading can become an addictive activity. Whereas an addiction to alcohol and other drugs are substance addictions, an addiction to trading is a process addiction and thus much more difficult to spot and overcome. To become the best trader or programmer, you need to spend a lot of time working behind the screen, trading, finding out things the hard way, loosing money and ending up depressed. I know trading can destroy your mind, soul, relations with friends, school, partner(s) and life. Their is also a dark side about trying to become the best in class. When I lost money myself, I was eaten up by the vicious cycle of addiction. I couldn’t sleep anymore. I lost more and more money. Couldn’t relax anymore. All my attention was focused on trading (unsuccessfully). I couldn’t stop my own thinking. Friends had to take action. Do not underestimate the danger of addiction. (1) (2) (3)

Please do not experiment with real money. I spent years in setting up this automated strategy, the money management rules, this whole methodology. You will not be able to improve the strategy by not spending 5 years of research. Otherwise, if you really think we missed something, please let us know. Then we will change the strategy for the benefit of all. We are trading this strategy with our own money as well… I think for the strategy, the probability of making any real improvements is quite limited. (+15% each month, 9% risk original deposit, 86% probability of success)

Only by increasing your deposit to a reasonal amount of equity we start to be compensated substantially for the investments we already made for PipShip Inc. We earn about 4% of the profit you are making with us. (Not that much!) Only by customers making good profits each month and trading for years with PipShip, we are able to earn back our investments.

Read more: How to prevent yourself from losing | PipShip

[B]If you are still fan of reading blablabla subjects here on babypips not based on anything (no backtest, no EA, no live results only repainting images etc. … [/B] forex price action, tired of price action… everybody still posting in forex price action thread… please go home…
[B]
… well maybe those non automated strategies work, don’t think so, but maybe, even then …

… they will not earn 15% a month, max 9% risk… and if they will do (I don’t think so) …

… then they will eat up all your free time when you need to smoke sigars and drink cognac …

… and even then try to beat this: [/B]Why Trading Auto Pilot? | PipShip

… and sorry for making an arrogant impression of myself here … euhm I know… but sometimes I’m just fed up with it… you know… seeing things could be better, but nobody seems to do anything…

… just suck the money out of our insane economic system we created ourselves. (banks already doing this for years) (we for the time we are able to do this…) show the world we need something better… (maybe we will not be able to create something better) then just make advantage of this economic system… free money!!! (free money already causing an economic crisis, bankrupt USA just printing money and pointing to greece and south of europe with their corrupt rating agencies, you don’t believe them? Big rifle up in your ass!) anyway, it’s insane, but I’m going to take advantage of it. I’m going to suck out all the money I can.

… at the end I just want to show the world we need something better (economic system, we need regulation, fighting against corruption, new voting system in USA (no winner takes all policy = not democratic, only same **** every day), bull**** bush and obama, bull**** banking culture sucking tax money, russia is crazy, whole north of africa is crazy and economic system is bull****). I need you all to open up your eyes and making advantage of this economic system so we are able to recognize the system it’s not working at all… and on the other hand (of course) I want to be rich as well :cool: (oops)

Dutch television company made this movie about the economic system of today. (must for every trader!) If you want to read something about those markets doing things even more insane as I’m doing… An article publiced at my university: https://www.tinbergen.nl/~sofie2012/papers/DegryseJongKervel2011.pdf

Another movie about ‘quants’ (people or nerds like me) I’m so much better than everybody else…
how banks make a 100 times profit…

Beautiful fragment of why zulutrade SP’s or hedgefundmanagers are able to abuse the money of followers…

Hedgefunds without responsible absolute stops/money management/more passive investment. Very sad…

‘Banker: I’m moving money around, not a business to be proud of…’ :slight_smile:

‘It’s about who has the most resources, who can pay the best salary, who can hire the best brains, only a little group of players is able to be a customer of goldman sachs…’

‘It’s not about where the market is about, all that’s matter is the way their stocks move, that’s all that’s matters.’

‘News reading machines can go wild…’ ‘banking is only about gambling’

Right right !!! well about 5K for EU licencing is not unreachable just do the math and the commssions and you will get there!
as for US markets, as far I know things tend to be more complicated and I am not really sure how the NFA licencing is done…

Yes, a couple of houres ago I had an appointment with our accountant (he is setting up the company with us)
Us = programmer, hedgefundmanager, webdesigner.

Now we have : programmer, hedgefundmanager, webdesigner, accountant (director)

He will take care of the licences, tax administration, helpdesk, accounts of > $10.000 will be opened by investment bank (they will have part of the licences needed) He also has some customers to start with.
This will be [B]PipShipELITE[/B].

Then we are able to trade with spread of 1.0 pip instead of 2.0 pips and 0.7 slippage.
So we are able to earn about 2.0 points commision for managing the accounts ourselves with large investment bank. [B](total costs for client: about 3.0 pips/trade)[/B] Investers will use PipShip as the only SP in portfolio instead of avg of 5 SP’s in portfolio.
Profit is 4x5 times bigger. And funds will be bigger too.
We have to set up helpdesk and automated administration to manage the total funds effective.

[B]PipShip [/B]will stay the same. (commision at zulu is 0.5 pip and accounts zulutrade < $10.000) No further investements needed. Only registration as financial service provider as well. Costs for clients to trade with Zulu is the same [B](total costs for client: about 3.0 pips/trade)[/B] (2 pips spread about 0.7-1.2 slippage)

Next week we will start trading with 5.000 euro. It will be 5k instead of 10k just for fun. (on top of E 1500 already in)
Well just for fun… euhm still 5k (4 years trading) -> 700k so… :stuck_out_tongue: maybe we will also win big with just trading our own system. (we desided to do both)