2-year backtest EURUSD, 300 pips/month

750K real money :wink:


Great job! I start to follow you by ZULU!

good :wink: thank you!

Hi Iā€™m interested in following you on Zulu

Iā€™ve applied to open an account and Iā€™m waiting for it to be processed.
In the mean time Iā€™m busy doing some risk analysis.

In my risk analysis Iā€™ve used these numbers:

  • chance of winning a trade is 90% (saw 92% on ZT but 90% on forum)
  • best trade: 47 pips (from ZT)
  • worst trade: 103 pips (from ZT)
  • average pips on winning trade: 13 (taken from ZT)
    [B]* average pips on losing trade: 30 (guessed ???)[/B]

[B]Other questions[/B]

  • Also I saw in the stats you shared that your greatest number of consecutive losing trades was 4 in a row. is that correct?

Thanks

Their are some things you need to know about the strategy of SP:
-max DD strategy and
-probability of profit.

Normally SPā€™s are very unstable (changing the strategy, turning it off in large DD etc.)
Therefore itā€™s important to know how a SP will behave during a large DD.
And you need to read the graph. (changes in codes?)

Now you now something about the reliablity of the SP. (also correlated with risk)

I have seen a lot of risk analysis on babypips using winning chance trade, best and worst trade.
This is not the way to do a risk analysis.

I understand with chance on losing trade and average pips losing trade you are trying to make a quess about the risk.
But this only one step of the whole analysis.

There are numerous reasons why a trade will end in a loss trading with PipShip:

-close all trades one houre before weekend.
-exitformula
-stoploss

Iā€™m not sure what the avg pips of a losing trade will be.

The only way do know something about the risk is by doing a backtest (100+ trades) (one pair) and by knowing the monthly return of the LIVE strategy. (multiple pairs)

By knowing the maxDD you are able to calculate the risk percentage. Then by knowing how many times the system goes to max DD you are able to calculate:
ā€¦ certain percentage risk
ā€¦ certain probability percentage of deposit is loss.

Then you need to know how many months you are not able to take a hit of the maxdd (before you made enough profit with the strategy so you are able to continue trading when hit maxDD)

So you see itā€™s a bit more complex.
Therefore I made a page about the risk/return rate: Risk vs Return | PipShip

Of course there is also a return (not only a risk analysis)

risk is [B]6%[/B] deposit. [B]10%[/B] return after scaling up first 3-4 months.
probability of about [B]86%[/B] you will make a profit with trading with pipship using the standard setup.

You are able to increase the probability of profit to [B]98%[/B]. (is costly for return) ([B]6%[/B] risk, [B]5%[/B] monthly return)

Therefore you need to ask yourself: [I]Do I want max profit? Or do I want reliability/max probability of success?[/I]

Bye

Up to 1,800 pips this month? (oct 2013)

Trading with $ 900.000.00

Hi Pipshippers thanks for the reply.

Iā€™m learning forex and would like to start out by following you.
Iā€™ve just completed babypips preschool and kindergarten. The rest seems to be about trading strategies, so I wonā€™t go further with it now.

Iā€™ve played poker professionally before and Iā€™m familiar with managing risk.
Iā€™d like to get my feet wet following you with real money starting with the absolute minimum amount possible.
Iā€™m working on my startup business, not earning any money at the moment (living off savings) and Iā€™m low on investment capital.
However I will have a nice big chunk of money coming in soon and the sooner I can get real live money experience with your system the more confident Iā€™ll be to invest in it when my money comes through.

I did a rough calculation that EUR/USD is 1.35 so one pip on 1 micro lot is $0.07.
(0.0001 * $1000 micro lot) / 1.35 = 0.07
I saw your worst loss was 103 pips. So assuming 110pips loss in one trade is $8.14 lost.
So if Iā€™m risking up to 4% of my bankroll per trade that would mean my bankroll would be $204.
So I figured that would be a good minimum bankroll to try out, trading 1 micro lot.
I see youā€™re also trading the Kiwi, Ozzie and Poundā€¦ Iā€™ve not repeated the calculation for those. But I expect you could have a completely different perspective on how to calculate the absolute min bankroll.
So let me know what you feel is the minimum bankroll I can start with, and what settings I should use on Zulu.

My account at the broker is opened and activated, I made a small deposit to get the ball rolling, Iā€™m just waiting for them to connect me with Zulu.

Thanks

PS: Not fā€™ing around :wink:

Today I hitted -200. So that why I use a backtest of 2 years.
(-600 max DD instead of LIVE trade max loss one trade)

4% would be $20,4 you said. So you are trading with only $500-600?.
Minimum deposit is $2000. Because withdrawal is $25.
(so itā€™s hard to win trading below $2000)

Iā€™m using 0.2mlots/$2000 as startup.
If you are using $500-600 then you are only able able to use 0.4mlots/$2000. (0.1mlots is minimum to trade with)
So you are risking 12% + 2% (funding your account) + 5% (withdrawal account).
Maybe you have to use another $400-500. Then you are able to use standard setup.

Greetz :wink:

Hi Pipshippers,

What do you think of IBFX? They advertise 99.97% execution rate. ZTā€™s site says if you enable protection they will keep resending signals that are rejected if the price is within 10 pips. IBFX also has low slippage with your signal at the moment.

ā€“

Thats a good point you made about maxDD.

I want to understand the calculation so please confirm this with me.
It looks like you misread what I wrote.
I will repeat the calculation first based on 110 maxDD. Then afterwards on 600.

If I assume 110 pips is maxDD that would be a loss of $8.14 on EUR/USD.
[0.0001 * 110 * $1000 (1 micro lot or 0.1 mini lot) ] / 1.35 = $8.14.
So if I assume my maxDD$ is $8.14 per trade and I want maxDD$ to be 4% that means my bankroll would need to be 25x $8.14 = $204 total bankroll. (100/4=25. So multiplying maxDD$ by 25 gives total bankroll required if maxDD$ is 4% of bankroll)

Here is the same calculation with 600 pips maxDD.
[0.0001 * 110 * $1000 (1 micro lot or 0.1 mini lot) ] / 1.35 = $44.44.
$44.44 maxDD$ @ 4% = $1111.11.

Now I understand why you recommend > $1000.

Can you please explain what 0.2mlots/$2000 means? is $2000 your total bankroll?

Greetz :44:

0.2mlots/$2000 means use 0.2mlots each $2000 you have in account.

or use 0.1 mlots each $1000 in account in begin.

IBFX is low slippage, but it is a market maker.
I do not recommand you to use a market maker. I do only have experience with ECN and 9 digit broker.
I know market makers are sometimes willing to deny a request. At the end they will accept but then profit has become smaller. Iā€™m not experienced with IBFX. Iā€™m using AAAFX. Lowest slippage and ECN broker.

Try to have at least $1000 in account.
start: use 0.1 mlots each $1000
if +600 pips -> use 0.2 mlots each $1000
if +1200 pips -> use 0.3 mlots each $1000

Thats about 10%, 20%, 30% risk meter value when using riskmeter.

Thanks for explaining dude :slight_smile:

Howcome your SL is 100 but you had a 235 pip drawdown?

Thatā€™s why max loss trade does not work. I always have 3 trades in when dd = -10 (start 2nd), when dd = -20 (start 3rd)ā€¦

How can your max drawdown pips be 600 in your 2 year backtest if your SL is 100 max trades open is 3? 3x100=300 pips?

When I continue trading after hit -300. In total in backtest I found maxdd of 528. So DD of 600 will be hit once every 2 years trading I think. Then you will hit the CP level. Capital Protection. Then you need to scale up the lotsize again to trade with small risk.

Hi!
What are you think about the last EUR/USD buy i think will reach the Stop Limit .
Maybe we should close as soon as possible. What you think Pipship?

Broke the 1.3580 level and i think dont stop until 1.3500-1.3460. But im beginer in forex.
(I follow you with real money account by ZULU.)

Ty

Hello there, have you thought of using the new API thingy?
I am looking into it and it seems quite complicatedā€¦:56:

for the 600 pips dd - can you explain to me how exactly it happened? I kinda got confused :34:

@Eddy He already explained. SL is 100, max 3 trades, makes it possible to lose 300 pips in one downswing. But then after those trades are closed by StopLoss, its possible to have another 3 trades open and lose another 300 pips, unlucky and rare but possible. he didnā€™t hit -600 pips, but 528 in his backtest.

@Pipship Following you with real money now dude :]
Thanks for all the info.

Trippy, good for you!!! post your results as well!! :slight_smile:

right rightā€¦thanks for the repeat friend, I just got lost in the thread beforeā€¦

He guys, I had to do a lot of work. Negotiating with banks and brokers, the autority of financial markets. And I had to change some characteristics of the strategy to trade even more safe. Do backtest etc. Finally I do have time for posting here. The previous weeks were not that good, but eventually we are getting there. Hope to make 200-300 pips this month still.

Then we are trading at 1400 pips. Then in november and december another 300 pips each month. I hope we will finish this year with 2000 pips.

Then in januari we are going to registrate our business as an investment business. Will cost about 15.000 euroā€™s. We will build a new website (next to pipship), professionalize our helpdesk, we need lawyers to check our disclaimers, we will hire new office space. Then we will set up our managed account services. It will be an adventure!

No hierarchical differences in our team. (at least I try) Itā€™s just a project organization. Only one goal in cooperation and working together (fun!): we want to be the best of the best!

Our team at the moment:

intern:
Programmer and founder (controlling and adjustment of the system, managing all processes below, financial administration)
System Controller (controlling the system)
Web designer (new website pipship-elite, portal saxobank)
Accountant/Advisor (administration check, checking contracts ect.)

extern:
HR manager (helpdesk, employee contracts etc.)
Business Law Attorney (disclaimers, licences, protection intellectual property)
SaxoBank institutional manager (portfolio management clients (by automated protocol pipship) and order execution)

End of year prospect: