After banking 150 pips at the opening, I’m now 90 pips on today’s trade. Almost like the old days again, do you think we’ll see 2.40 / 2.50 again?
Well, Eddie that is indeed impressive, and almost like the old days, indeed!
Do I think, or do I hope that it will head to 2.40 - 2.50 again?
I think it might, but I am certain of my hope for it to get there…
In other words, I need more momentum than the last four daily candles (all bullish, in a straight row,
by the way)… given the size of the recent correction… The fact that this pair has jumped seven hundred
pips up, however, makes me ask you back: do you think that THIS bounce is different?
I am quite happy because:
- my new long-term trade (short S&P500 from that swing high and historical supply zone) is now
100 pips in the money;
-
my GBP/NZD long has shed 700 pips of drawdown;
-
my FTSE100 short has shed about 200 pips of its drawdown in the last 24 trading hours alone;
-
my EUR/GBP short has shed over 300 pips of its drawdown in the last twelve trading days, of
which ten have been red (Daily) candles…almost a straight collapse…
Shedding about 1,200 pips of my drawdown in just a handful of days, and either side of a weekend
at that (in what is meant to be a ‘quiet’ month), makes me hopeful, of course, but I am not out of
danger yet, so I remain vigilant…
The signs are all there, though: global deleveraging (=short the equities and Yen pairs), Euro’s
false bull move collapsing (=short Euro pairs against stronger counterparts), and Kiwi’s higher yield
falling victim to its own success (=short Kiwi in the expectation that forward looking markets see
the RBNZ returning to lower rates while putting nation-wide mortgage loan restrictions to cool down
their housing bubbles, fed by the very rate-cutting that should help exports and the economy…)
It is nice when you feel that things start to align: your vision, and the market, slowly flowing
together…
I guess that you get it too, on a much shorter time period?
I must admit my average trade time is down from 7/8 days to 4 this year.
Partly a slight change in tact, im bringing stops in below my winning trades earlier and tighter than before. This is because the pairs seem to be moving against logic more - ive not been trading as long as you, maybe that’s the norm.
Im also wary of Brexit/US weakness/illogical Yen strength (even given that its a safe haven).
So, whilst my individual trade gains are smaller, I am more consistent which, I guess, is a step in the right direction.
Great post!
By the way, how long have you been doing this ‘second or third hobby’ of yours? ;p
Started at the BP school Oct 14, demo traded for a few months, started live Feb 15. How about you?
Cool… Demo from Sep.'12, live in Dec.2013…
I’m struggling live for a year and did not reap the results! I became more or less “stable” with a small profit(but in overall I’m loosing) for 2 months or less.
RBNZ SEEN HOLDING RATES AT UPCOMING MEETING: POLL – MARKET TALK
26 April 2016, 07:00
0400 GMT [Dow Jones] New Zealand’s central bank is more likely to keep interest rates on hold Thursday, rather than cut again, according to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal. Nine out of 12 polled economists see the Reserve Bank of New Zealand keeping the official cash rate steady at 2.25%, with the median forecast giving that outcome a 65% probability compared with a 35% chance of a rate cut. The bank surprised markets with a rate cut last month. Economists say this week’s decision could still be a close call, with many saying a cut is a live possibility. If the bank does hold rates steady, some economists see a reduction coming in June, when the RBNZ releases its next monetary policy statement. ([email protected])
Editor: PJK
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
GbpNzd now touching 2.1200, lets see if it can get thru and push on
Pretty much empty space between 2.12 and 2.15 too if it can get past this level.
Weak dollar makes it unlikely, imho, that Fed will drop any rate hike hints at next Fed meeting. I feel they would also prefer to wait until after Brexit vote and possibly after US election before risking any changes
Nooooooo!
Winning streak ends, lost 35 pips as UsdJpy drops to SL 
Can’t win 'em all
So far today, 4 trades have retraced to my stops, 2 winners and 2 losers for a combined gain of… (wait for it…)…+10 pips!
GbpNzd trade still bouncing around with 160-200 pips profit. Once this finally pushes clear of 2.12 zone there is very little technical resistance until it reaches 2.15
STERLING RISES AFTER U.K. 1Q GDP DATA – MARKET TALK
27 April 2016, 11:41
0841 GMT Sterling rises, turning higher on the day against the dollar, after data shows U.K. GDP rose by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and by 2.1% year-on-year. The annual rise is slightly above expectations for a 2.0% rise. The quarterly gain is in line with forecasts, although some in the market had seen the risk of a weaker number. GBP/USD trades up 0.1% at $1.4594, having traded at around $1.4564 before the data. Gains above $1.46 could see it test Tuesday’s high around $1.4640. GBP also strengthens to 0.7763 per euro, compared with around 0.7776 per euro beforehand. ([email protected])
Contact us in London. +44-20-7842-9464
<[email protected]>
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Just banked the smaller if my 2 GbpNzd trades for +70 pips, plan to let the larger one run a lot longer, currently +200 pips
Nice one , Eddie…
Markets are funny: the Year on Year gdp was
indeed 2.1 instead of the expected 2.0, but…
the previous gdp YoY reading was also 2.1,
so you could spin this in another way and
say that is shows lack of progress, which,
depending on whatever the markets collectively
feel about it, could well be a Pound-negative scenario…
Go figure!!!
These days so long as you’re not going backwards you’re going forwards! 2.1% for a mature economy is pretty good given the general global situation.
Volatility chart shows GbpNzd still a star performer at just under 300 pips per day over the last 26 weeks
Very similar path between UK and US (with some small difference)…
Always good to see the bigger picture…
Markets definitely interpret whichever way they like… and often
it makes no sense in terms of ‘pure’ economics.
Nice chart, Eddie 