Hi All, I’m new here…not new to trading. Just going to journal here and if anyone has any comments - shoot!
Trades I’m watching:
Totally agree on the NZD/USD. I’m looking for a bounce of some kind followed by confirmation of further weakness to get short. I didn’t take the early entry possibilities, 21/09 or 26/09 would have made sense but higher risk than the opportunity that will hopefully follow.
I’m actually long USD/JPY on recent $ strength but price is not yet pushing upwards.
Neither of these are top trend-following charts right now. I’d have to point towards CAD long positions.
You have noted that short NZD/USD and short USD/JPY are contradictory positions on the USD? I mean, I’m going to be doing it too, but it is just an extra level of risk. Just saying.
Isn’t it a reduction in risk?
Yes, you’re right that they are contradictory in that USD would be long on one and short on the other, but it’s relative to the other currency they are paired with and its strength or weakness. I really pay more attention to what the candles/charts are telling me. These are just two that i noticed but if the right conditions don’t reveal themselves - i’ll just pass on them. I’ll check out the CAD, thanks…
Yes and no. Its reduces the risk of loss, yes. But it also reduces the “risk” of gain. If positions exactly cancel each other out, there’s no point trading.
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But don’t you agree that the JPY could be strengthening in relation to the USD, while the NZD is weakening in relation to the USD? They don’t always move in tandem.
Yes, it does happen, and its not suicide to be long USD from one pair’s chart and short USD from another. But its a kind of divergence that weakens the argument for being long on a base currency if all the other pairs based on it are bearish. So right now you’d have to have a damn good set-up to justify being long CHF - CHF/JPY might do OK though.
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Good loking setups csc, can’t argue with those - I’m long EurUsd on a double bottome at pretty strong support, so also betting USD weakness on the longer timescale.
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Good to know that I’m not the only thinking USD is looking bearish 
, thanks for your comments!
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Sometimes it can be very lonely, sitting there bearish, when everyone else is bullish, especially early in the trade, before the movement really starts. I remember it well from when I used to trade the DOW many years ago. Only just looking at forex now, so I’m a bit of a newbie on this, but the principles look similar and the spreads look to be decent. 
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Ain’t that the truth! I’ve been attempting to master Forex for some years now (7?) and though I am definitely more confident in my analysis and probable direction of the price movement - STILL I find getting in at the right moment to be tricky. Since I am a medium - long term trader, I do allow myself some flexibility in my stoploss placement so that helps if I chose the ‘ultimate direction’ correctly - but got in too early and have to sit through a little bit more retracement or consolidation than desired.
All I can say is - everyday a little better. I think people start out Forex because it can be fun and exciting and they think they’ll get rich quickly. But they LAST because they love it and they are disciplined and learn from their previous mistakes.
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While I’m waiting for these trades to get moving, I thought I would post some charts illustrating what I am thinking regarding their next move…
In this USDCAD WEEKLY chart above, we have what might be a sort of head-and-shoulders pattern. I was unsure initially where to put my stoploss since there seem to be two primary areas of resistance. I placed it at the higher level for now to play it safe. I am hoping to ride this trend down and start pyramid trades at points of retracement. So, I will also follow my stop down when it seems appropriate to do so.
In the USDCAD DAILY chart above, we have an inside-day candle set up which did break to the downside. So, currently looking bearish. We also see swing trading conditions with Lower Highs and Lower Lows being established, and a rejection candle at the current price level. Hopefully we will build some bearish momentum over the coming days.
In the 4 Hr UDSCAD chart above, we have a couple smallish rejection candles and a possible trendline break. I say possible because I’m never sure if I am drawing them correctly. But overall this looks like the retracement is coming to an end.
On USDJPY:
In this USDJPY WEEKLY chart, there is a pin bar rejection candle last week, and we are sitting atop of a bearish trending channel. My stoploss is tight on this trade, I may move it up to the previous HH if price does not give a strong bearish candle soon. I plan to stay in this trade until the end of this channel, and I will reassess at that time. If there are any pyramid trading opportunities, I will take advantage of those as well.
In the USDJPY DAILY chart above, there was a nice rejection pin bar. As I had previously noted at the start of this journal thread, I think that this market is showing weakness at this level in general. That’s really all I have to say about current conditions on this chart.
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So far so good on the USDCAD. Waiting for price to drop a bit further and then retrace up and hit a new LH so that I can move down my stoploss and remove risk from this trade. Hopefully at some point soon I can add to my position as I hope to pyramid this trade and ride the trend down for as long as it is looking bearish.
Well, so last night I decided to lower my stoploss down on this USDCAD trade - so I am now in the no risk zone. However, this morning USD seems to be surging on Brexit news. Will reanalyze at the end of the day. I was hoping to add to my position at the logical retracement (ie where it is now), but depending on what the candles are telling me at NY close…that may have to wait. I haven’t posted my USDJPY trade update previously, because though its still in the positive territory - not much is happening. But it has remained below the S/R level, again - we’ll see what happens with Brexit and NY close today.
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Hey C, ummm, well just a friendly hello, and you might just be trading in pure random chop in a consolidation range right now. But maybe not.
The Ever Concerned VIPER
On the UJ I assume? I agree, I am going to decide what to do based on NY close today. Hoping to see some of this action though:
Yup that’s the guy 
if you are on 1 min with 5 sec entries and exits, its productive, you get to hammer those long wicks and tails, but if you hold it might eat at you psychologically, you know the old, "yeah ok here it goes, maaaan its coming back up how is that possible’ rutine, too hard on the brain for me.
The Ever Taking The 5-12 pips VIPER
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Interesting and thought provoking i must say,keep up the good work,great
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