Okay guys, I finally managed to overcome one of the most time-consuming obstacle in the Excel database. You guys probably know how boring is it to update the damn charts each week, aren’t you? Well, I found the solution.
The process is simple really.
Instead of selecting the current values in the database, you just scroll down like mad and capture as much empty cells as you can. Here are the pictures.
Normally, you and I select the values to the last date.
Instead of stopping at the last value, just highlight as much cells as you want. These empty cells won’t appear on the chart unless they are given a value. You can use that little trick for the COT Index, Willco, Movement Index, etc.
So, on the weekends, all you have to do is type in a few numbers and you are all set.
US hols coming up so things may quieten down a little.
Just 2 things that I’m looking closely at, OIL and S&P
Oil is back down to support (well a kind of support), so what are investors betting on - have a look at the volume yesterday and the result of that volume.
The second chart might just play out early next week, having said that it’s the only thing that says to watch out, everything else including AD etc etc is in line with the bull market.
Anyways I’ll just be that little extra careful, similar pattern on DJIA, NQ100, Nikkei, not on Europeans.
This last chart is S&P daily, willspread on US10yr invert correlation at default settings
What I’m trying to do with w/spread is to utilize it more on the daily, to see whether it can be a guide for an exit or stay in trade, I’ve posted previously how it can be used on HR1 for entry - in fact it gave a clear buy signal just over an hour ago - it has since jumped to a new high.
One of the age old question when price reaches a previous high is will it break through or reverse. If I had a long term long I could just wait and give up some pips if it reverses.
Here is the same chart only back on Nov 3, price had just reached the previous high, see how w/s was suggesting that based on US10yr there was a good chance of a climb further up.
Will it give a sell signal next week, if/when it gets to the zero on daily I’ll switch over to hr1 and see.
And here is that entry signal just given, it’s a means of getting onto a trend, although I wouldn’t trade it tonight, just nice to see the indicator in action - one market based on another.
It’s possible to ‘anticipate’ the signal, price already close to the 50sma and w/s rapidly approaching the zero line from an extreme, when you see that in an uptrend it’s usually an excellent buy signal.
that is an important breakthrough and is really simple. With this trick you just saved the most time consuming task in the process. Many thanks for that!
well Peter, someone said it is a thinking game. You definitely qualify for that. I am always amused for your analysis and happy to have you here and I do not even have to pay for the service! (bad for you)
If I might give a suggestion, can you once show us a Willspread example on a currency pair which does not have the USD in it? For example EURNZD or EURAUD? You said it works with the USDX.
I’ve been experimenting with the indicator lately. Actually, I wanted to convert it to the Williams’ Valuation Index but that’s more than my programming skills can handle. I reached out for my of my friends who is actually a programmer, hopefully he’ll be able to create it.
Yeah, there are different nuances to it’s use. I’m trying to achieve the best ‘entry’ technique in it’s use on a hr1.
The first element that I’m concentrating on is drawdown, I want to see the optimum set up. So far it seems that when price is close to it’s 50 sma, the indicator is coming from an extreme high and closing on the zero line, then there is momentum, drawdown is small.
The nearest to that in a non USD cross this morning was Eur/Jpy, but unfortunately the cross of the zero happened at the beginning of Asia - always the beginning of a session is best for momentum.
Anyways I took the next signal at 146.80 sell at London Open - there has been no drawdown yet but little momentum probably due to the US hols. It went down for in the black 40 pips, but may stop out at BE.
I am curious about something. What is your goal in trading? I am not kidding. I have the feeling that you make newer and newer indicators (which are all great!) but then without investigating them maybe in detail or try to build a system on them, you just move on for the next one. Sometimes I think your first goal is to have just all indicators programed in your arsenal and second goal is profitability.
Don’t get me wrong, I am really only interested. I think make a great job but on my side what you have shown is already a lot and is enough for a while. I will of course happily read all improvements and your results. I wish a you a lot of luck and share those indicators with us!
Isn’t it funny how those investor guys seem to get it right a couple of days before a big move. Today was one of the biggest falls in a long time in oil.
Then again, the volume that I was speaking of last night was one of the largest in a long time.
It might seem that way, I admit. I just like to try new stuff when it comes to trading. There is not much to investigate with indicators. One thing to look at is how it fared in the last X years in general and that’s about it. You can play around with various settings, but I never got anything useful out of that so far.
I’m currently using the COT report and ProGo to analyze the markets, but I would love to have the Williams’ Valuation Index in my arsenal as it seems to be promising.
See, I’m trying to approach the markets from as much angle as possible. Mr Williams introduced the WillVal Index in the Sure Thing Commodity Trading course and the indicator piqued my interest. It is not your traditional price-derived indicator. It is something more. An other viewpoint.
today the new COT report comes out and I am not sure what to do with S&P. As we have seen the historical analysis, the consolidated report did not help anything. Now the question is if it makes sense to analyse the Index report as it has little OI. What do you guys think?
Mike,
can you post your colored excel table sometimes?
I don’t know about the S&P 500. I used to have it in my database but removed it as it was really confusing… A better way to analyze the index is to use some kind of correlation. There’s Peter’s example, the one contains the Will-Spread and it’s divergences.
Well, this is the last trading day for the month. I showed you earlier the stats for the first 3 weeks. And the only thing I can come up with is that JPY has some catching up to do. And so far today it looks like it.
0825 GMT shot
Hey FE.
Well, my excel chart has not changed much.
All I do is add on the weekly results. Plus, all I’m doing is in-putting numbers. (anyone can do that)
But, I’ll give you the latest shot.
The first row is the ranked week.
The second row is the actual week.
Third is date.
And the numbers are what they are ranked (as of the previous week).
And the bottom figure is answering the question…how many places are matched with the ranking. I split the group into 2 parts, first 4 and last 4. So you can see (on the latest week results) 6 out of the 8 match. 1, 2, 4, rated did place into the top 4. And 5,7,8 rated did place in the last. All that’s doing is letting me see how they flip flop from one week to the next. Look at the 42nd week (10/13-17). All of the bottom rated ones were in the top 4, and likewise the top 4 rated ones ended up in the last 4.
Is it me or are US pairs starting to range? USDCHF has failed to break the 0.97000 resistance for nine weeks now.
Surprisingly at has also been 9 weeks and US has failed to break the 0.77 support in NZDUSD.
EURUSD is struggling with the 1.24 level for four weeks. USDCAD for eight weeks with 1.13. Three weeks for GBPUSD with 1.56.
Its only AUDUSD and USDJPY that have been creating respective new lows and new highs.
So it seems that it is the weakness of the others rather than the strength of the dollar that has been inspiring the moves.
based on what BB said and on my experience with my COT report on S&P and the Nikkei, I will not follow anymore the indeces. I am interested if Rookie makes historical analysis is it going to help us or not. But the two indeces I followed do not help. So I also stick to Peter’s Willspread method combining with Russel 2000 and A/D Line.
Mike,
nice stats, can you make some historical observation? There must be some pattern to see there.
Philip,
I fully agree with you, I do not have US longs at the moment. Did you wrote down in the beginning of November from one of Peter’s post what the MRCI website suggested to trade? Just some of the last tips: Sell USDX Nov 24 exit Dec 6, Sell USDX Nov 16 exit Jan 4 and buy NZD Nov 24 exit Jan 12. Now many of the others do not function that great this time, but the message is clear: USD is not as strong as it was.
Have a nice afternoon or weekend everyone, but do not forget the analysis,
Hi guys, usually I have a look at Advance/Decline, Russell 2000 re the S&P, but I’m not going to bother, too many on holidays for a meaningful analysis.
Now Monday will be a different story. Monday’s EOD data on the S&P will be of interest, so too price action. I would expect the normal run, at NY open maybe a drop down to yesterday’s low, then upwards from that.
In reality price ‘should’ be bullish, so let’s see.
Edit: couldn’t resist, GLDX big fall, low volume, just following oil down.
Russell 2000 - hmmm… signs of nervousness big time, will check out tracker etf’s for volume, I’d say was low but…if I was a bull in the S&P I’d would be, well nervous.
This is up to date, HR1, will def be looking at A/D for EOD today on NQ, S&P and DJ.
